Step Away From the Crocs!

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Crocs (Nasdaq: CROX) shares showed signs of life last week, after the company reported a better-than-expected quarterly loss. Me? I'm just amazed that investors in the midst of a serious recession could get so exuberant about an unprofitable company whose days as a hot fad are long gone.

The purveyor of colorful clogs reported a net loss of $30.3 million, or $0.36 per share, versus a profit of $2.1 million, or $0.03 per share this time last year. The quarterly results included a litany of charges; without them, Crocs reported a net loss of $5 million, or $0.06 per share.

Revenue fell 11.3% to $197.7 million. However, Crocs was able to reduce its inventories, in part by donating some shoes to charity. That's a kind gesture, but it begs for a "giving these things away" joke. The company also improved its balance sheet by paying off the $17.3 million it owed on its credit facility, which had been due on Sept. 30. These are glimmers of good news, but this torpid reptile's not out of the jaws of disaster just yet.

Crocs warned investors about its ability to continue as a going concern last spring, and it hasn't yet lifted that warning from its Form 10-Q filing with the SEC.

The company further disclosed that it may still require additional financing to fund its operations as the economic downturn wears on. Personally, I wouldn't want to bet on its ability to secure financing or repay debts over the long term, if its business continues to suffer.

Blaming Crocs' ills on the economy seems naive, especially since the trend that initially lifted the company has clearly faded. Even with no help from the economy, this stock has the same hovering air of gloom as fellow footwear fad Heelys (Nasdaq: HLYS).

I guess people will always fall in love with the compelling stories of stocks like Crocs or Sirius XM (Nasdaq: SIRI), without contemplating their staying power -- much less boring old fundamentals like balance sheets. Searching for growth companies is fun, and it can be very lucrative, but that kind of investing includes a high risk of misjudging fickle consumer tastes and trends. A company like Nike (NYSE: NKE) may seem boring and staid by comparison, but it's far less likely to crash and burn.

For those who scooped up Crocs shares when they were scraping the bottom of the barrel, well, I suggest you pat yourself on the back for being darn lucky, take your gains, and invest in something with better odds of paying off. At this point, even a lottery scratch-off ticket might fare better than Crocs' stock.

Got a great contrarian argument in favor of investing in Crocs? Hit us with your best shot in the comment box below.

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Alyce Lomax does not own shares of any of the companies mentioned, nor is she shorting any of them. Nope, not even Crocs. Try any of our Foolish newsletters free for 30 days. The Fool's disclosure policy manages to remain comfortable without being full of holes.

Comments from our Foolish Readers

Help us keep this a respectfully Foolish area! This is a place for our readers to discuss, debate, and learn more about the Foolish investing topic you read about above. Help us keep it clean and safe. If you believe a comment is abusive or otherwise violates our Fool's Rules, please report it via the Report this Comment Report this Comment icon found on every comment.

  • Report this Comment On August 11, 2009, at 4:46 PM, crankly09 wrote:

    You FOOLS again!!!

    SIRI- You baboons are questioning SIRI's "staying power" or "balance sheets"......where exactly have you "authors" been getting your recent news from? Have you all been in a cave together somewhere outside of Cairo reading ancient cuneiform?

    In case you have NEGLECTED to read any form of news publication over the last week.......let me fill you in on SIRI: Gigantic revenue growth, 400 million dollar + guidance for 2009, tremendous cost saving synergies, partnership with Direct TV, debt reduction, Apple integration, cash for clunkers AND 18 Million + paying subscribers in a GARBAGE economy.

    I don't know too much about CROC's (but I love the three pair I own), but to dismiss SIRI, an innovative service with a loyal following, as "risky", is sheer ignorance and poor reporting. SIRI's pps will show you "authors" at the FOOL how foolish you are in Q1 2010.

    Crankly

  • Report this Comment On August 11, 2009, at 5:45 PM, fml11 wrote:

    I just don't get this. Crocs will have revenue of at least $800M this year. That is more than the Stride Rite (Keds, Saucony, Sperry, Stride-rite, others) and more than Deckers (Ugg, Teva, and Simple). Financially, things look a little tight in recovering from the initial growth surge, but not really too bad. The top line is quite remarkable.

    They are made of an amazing (in my opinion) sole/foot bed that is extremely light, comfortable, and doesn’t get smelly (the reason I stopped wearing Tevas) or wear out. The sky is the limit in terms of style, since their differentiator is not the look as much as the foot bed material. I bought this stock at 4 after buying my 3rd pair, which look just like Tevas (velcro straps). The second pair is a canvas boat shoe, and the first was the original style. They are all incredibly comfortable and light.

    The only fad is the look of the original style which had the bulky, colorful, gaudy design. But the longevity of Crocs will be in the patented material in the shoes and some successful styles. To suggest that there are knock-offs is ridiculous, they are all heavy, rubbery, stink-bombs that wear out quickly.

    OK – so the sales continue to be healthy (but no longer 250% growth), the brand is strong worldwide, and the product is excellent. I think that at this time next year, they will be owned by Reebok or Collective Brands or Deckers, and the sales will be north of $1B (not far from where they are today). My amateur analysis puts CROX at 18/share if they do nothing beyond continuing to reducing operating expenses.

  • Report this Comment On August 11, 2009, at 6:17 PM, lomaxlovescrocs wrote:

    Alyce Lomax loves Crocs

    Write above one hundred times now!

  • Report this Comment On August 11, 2009, at 6:26 PM, lomaxlovescrocs wrote:

    Alyce do you mean that you want us to keep buying oil stocks or what?

  • Report this Comment On August 11, 2009, at 6:28 PM, lomaxlovescrocs wrote:

    Are you on a steering committee for some other certain stocks ??

  • Report this Comment On August 11, 2009, at 6:30 PM, lomaxlovescrocs wrote:

    Alyce

    you are so good at muttering good news about Crocs as bad news!! You are a real pro!

  • Report this Comment On August 11, 2009, at 6:32 PM, lomaxlovescrocs wrote:

    Alyce

    have you been missing your regular mediciation? I had been called that by readers all the times!! I am used to their cheapshots!

  • Report this Comment On August 11, 2009, at 6:57 PM, chbecker99 wrote:

    Agreed with crankly....

    That was just an ignorant reference to SIRI:

    "without contemplating their staying power"

  • Report this Comment On August 11, 2009, at 9:19 PM, lalabronx wrote:

    Motley Fool is one of the biggest contrarian indicators. Please stay bearish on Crox! You are in "good" company with the Washington Post and Barrons - ha ha

  • Report this Comment On August 11, 2009, at 9:56 PM, knowing12 wrote:

    Stop using Siri in a negative with other symbols that you trash, be positive!

  • Report this Comment On August 11, 2009, at 9:57 PM, Isaac86 wrote:

    You know that all MF articles related to bearish outlooks have to have Sirius' name thrown in.

    How else would they be able to quietly accumulate stock before they put siri in one of their premium articles?

    Later on they will pump the stock as a hidden gem or one of the other premium services and reap the benefits while pretending they never bashed it month after month.

  • Report this Comment On August 11, 2009, at 10:15 PM, JPP011 wrote:

    What is your deal against Crocs? Did you by any chance happen to miss out on the IPO, and are still extremely bitter about it?

  • Report this Comment On August 12, 2009, at 1:16 AM, OldShoeDog wrote:

    There has never been a product or brand that penetrated as many markets, around the world, in as short a time as Crocs. How many stocks are up several hundred percent this summer? The only way that happens is when people who have more money than you nonbelievers think they know something that you don’t.

  • Report this Comment On August 12, 2009, at 9:18 AM, yzfinance wrote:

    As an ex-owner of CROX, I can't help but notice that every time the shoe or the company is mentioned, a forum board ends up aflame.

    Where I disagree with you, Alyce, is that you say investors didn't consider the fundamentals. Unfortunately, the fundamentals of CROX 2 years ago were sound(-ish); they had plenty of cash, with little to no debt, and were selling at an acceptable P/E for a company that sported a few quarters of explosive growth before.

    Where I agree with you, though, is.. well, everywhere else. Inventory control was non-existent; growth story was momentary (Crocs themselves might have staying power as the intrinsic qualities of the shoes and material are real, but the fashion of a clog?.. it cannot sustain that level of growth); and finally, the biggest flaw of that company, management was not worthy of investors' confidence.

    The new CEO in place at least has some experience in the footwear industry. That doesn't mean CROX won't go bankrupt. It's still raking up losses, too much of it for my taste, but it could also recover and settle as an eternal small-caps prime for acquisition. Fact is, there probably is a fair amount of short-covering and excited Crocs fan picking up shares, in hope of an eventual recovery. Best of luck to them, but I essentially agree with you Alyce; at current prices, I'd dump the stock and move on.

  • Report this Comment On August 12, 2009, at 10:21 AM, killab73 wrote:

    how do you get people to read your crappy online articles? simple, add "SIRI" so it shows up under SIRI finance headlines. the people at the fool are morons. your articles suck, and the only reason why thousands of people bother to click on the news link is to see how you bashed SIRI today. no one cares about your opinions fool, your articles suck, and readers question if you do any type of research before posting.

  • Report this Comment On August 12, 2009, at 10:29 AM, tootun wrote:

    Again you put siri in a negative light for no apparent reason! Your part of the wallstreet gang that controls by lies and trickery are you not? Try taking another look at siri before you make a fool of yourself by posting this trash. Hey we know your buying in cheap but don't be so obvious with your manipulating. I am sure your smarter than you look.

  • Report this Comment On August 12, 2009, at 10:35 AM, acommontater wrote:

    Anyone investing in a one trick pony stock like CROX should look beyond the early success of the product and batten down the hatches and prepare for the fall from grace led by the American public. One of my greatest coups was when I shorted Whamo, the company that produced that great American novelity, Hula Hoops! (Just kidding-Lighten up.)

  • Report this Comment On August 12, 2009, at 10:51 AM, tootun wrote:

    I'll lighten up when mm's stop with their almost stalker like attitude about Siri. I don't lighten up when money is involved.

  • Report this Comment On August 12, 2009, at 11:30 AM, Recondo72 wrote:

    RE: SiriusFM(oops!! I MENT SiriusXM)

    Some of you posters might be right but Mel & company have run a great service into the ground. I USED to be the biggest fan of SatRad untill AFTER the merger and since has seen what the decline in programming,nickle & dime increases, and poor customer service has done to what once was something to be proud of.

    Word of Mouth is still a very influential way of communication. Word of Mouth on SiriusFM(I did it again!!) is that subscribing to SiriusXM is not something on your "must do" list anymore.

  • Report this Comment On August 12, 2009, at 12:47 PM, mcbowler78 wrote:

    I'm still buying.

  • Report this Comment On August 12, 2009, at 1:13 PM, grendeth wrote:

    No offense but Siri is a really terrible stock and company to own as a long term investor. Short term, this baby is as speculative as it can get and money can be made by the fast trigger gun slinger.

    They are trading at 50 cents. Howard Stern (the biggest clown on radio) made the right move when he sold his Siri stocks.

  • Report this Comment On August 12, 2009, at 2:33 PM, ImaWright wrote:

    Alyce

    Keep up the good work. I can only imagine some one with your insight must be making a fortune in the market. I am sure you are not just another Motley idiot wanting a little notoriety. One of those bloggers sitting in their 400 sqft studio in VA squeaking out a meager living by regurgitating some other bloggers misguided information and trying to pass it off as some in-depth financial analysis you have developed. You are really making an impact... the more you blog the more the stock goes up. Obviously people are out there doing the right research and not taking any value in some no name blogger English Major hack as a financial expert. You know what they say.... those who can do and those who can't blog about it Alyce! So Alyce your an English major who writes short fiction, obviously this is one of your best works yet.

  • Report this Comment On August 12, 2009, at 5:52 PM, TMFBrich wrote:

    Enough with the ad homimen attacks. If you disagree with Alyce, explain your position without resorting to ridiculous personal attacks.

    And for those who have insinuated any improprieties, please review The Motley Fool's disclosure policy, which we take very seriously: http://www.fool.com/help/index.htm?display=about02.

    -Brian Richards, Fool editor

  • Report this Comment On August 13, 2009, at 7:14 PM, Varchild2008 wrote:

    CROX = A Buy.

    But, I only base this on "Mall-o-nomics" which is just a coin flip. Visited a mall recently, saw lots of people gathered around a "CROCS" shoe display...Looked like lots of people were buying CROCS shoes to me...

    CROX doesn't just sell the goofy looking shoes anymore. They have normal looking sandals for men and women. Very nice looking sandals that if I was into wearing sandals I would have bought a pair.

  • Report this Comment On August 14, 2009, at 7:44 PM, TMFMarlowe wrote:

    The core problem with SIRI is that we're not very far, technologically speaking, from getting any number of comparable services in our cars for free (I've already got 'em on my iPhone). It's not a sustainable business. Even I know that, and I don't follow the company at all.

    John Rosevear

  • Report this Comment On August 16, 2009, at 1:17 AM, CatWhisperer wrote:

    It's going to be an interesting story for CROX in any case.

    Yes, they do have innovative and rather good looking new products. Can they "make the jump" to a sufficiently robust product line? We'll see.

    Yes, there are serious qualitative questions surrounding their management team.

    Yes, they have good plastic foam (Assuming patent protection is in place for now). Is this enough of a moat? tee hee.

    How will the CROX drama unfold? Don't know. Don't really care. This play seems almost completely speculative. Hence, the CROX "story" holds more entertainment value than investment value for me.

    BTW. I owned a pair of Crocs clogs and two of the rivets that hold on the back strap failed in 3 weeks. I see the shoes doing more to contribute to the mid-pacific plastic flotsam vortex than actually providing some benefit to humanity.

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CROX $5.45 Down -0.08 -1.45%
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HLYS $2.08 Up +0.01 +0.48%
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