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A Massive Bet on Bank of America

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Think you have a lot invested in Bank of America (NYSE: BAC  ) ?

John Paulson, the head honcho at Paulson & Co. (not to be confused with ex-Treasury chief Hank Paulson), invested $2.2 billion in the bank during the second quarter, at an average buy price of $13.20 a share.

The investment is somewhat shocking, given that Paulson bathed in a significant amount of limelight for making boatloads of money by betting against a host of things related to mortgage, housing, and banking. And I do mean boatloads; reportedly, he personally pocketed $3.7 billion in 2007 as his funds skyrocketed.

Interestingly, while B of A was Paulson's largest banking investment of the quarter (and his second-largest equity investment overall), he also picked up shares of a host of other financial stocks, including JPMorgan Chase (NYSE: JPM  ) , Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS  ) , Capital One (NYSE: COF  ) , and Fifth Third Bancorp (Nasdaq: FITB  ) .

But there's another twist here. Paulson's investments during the quarter also maintained a healthy amount of exposure to gold-producing companies, including the SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE: GLD  ) exchange-traded fund, AngloGold Ashanti, and Kinross Gold (NYSE: KGC  ) .

So on the one hand, we've got a big bet on the banking system and financials, while on the other hand we've seemingly got a big bet against the dollar and financial system. Why would Paulson do this? I've got several ideas:

  1. The financials are a short-term bet, assuming that shares are underpriced and will charge back with the economy, while the gold holdings are a longer-term purchase to profit from inflation and a weak dollar.
  2. One of Paulson's traders brought her kids to the office and they ran amok, making billions of dollars of random trades.
  3. Paulson is now bullish on the financial system, and the gold holdings are a hedge on that bet.
  4. He did this just to mess with all of us.
  5. Paulson is brilliant, and if he told us the reasoning behind these trades, our lesser brains would implode from the sheer genius.

No matter what you think Paulson's motivations are, I'd warn against taking the plunge on B of A just because he thinks it's a buy. Great investors can give you good ideas, but you will rarely have them by your side telling you why they invested -- and when it's time to sell. It's always best to do your own research before staking your own investment dollars.

What do you think drove Paulson to his investment selection during the second quarter? Chime in below in the comments section.

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Fool contributor Matt Koppenheffer owns shares of Bank of America, but does not own shares of any of the other companies mentioned. You can check out what Matt is keeping an eye on by visiting his CAPS portfolio, or you can follow Matt on Twitter @KoppTheFool. The Fool's disclosure policy would like to note that Matt owned Bank of America way before Paulson made it cool.


Comments from our Foolish Readers

Help us keep this a respectfully Foolish area! This is a place for our readers to discuss, debate, and learn more about the Foolish investing topic you read about above. Help us keep it clean and safe. If you believe a comment is abusive or otherwise violates our Fool's Rules, please report it via the Report this Comment Report this Comment icon found on every comment.

  • Report this Comment On August 13, 2009, at 11:46 AM, stocktrud wrote:

    The guy is not only Wall St smart, he is regular street smart. It's logical when the Real Estate market was blown way out of proportion, that when the prices come back from the stratosphere that the financials would sink. It also makes sense, that since Real Estate HAS ALWAYS recovered sooner or later that the beaten down financials will come back stronger than ever. Money has always lost value since the history of this country, which makes Real Estate and gold great bets for the eventual outcome. I had thoughts myself, about how much trouble the banks would get into with the crazy bubble but sadly did not have the brains to act on it. Long term, the large banks are a certain BUY!!! Sooner or later when Obama & Co. fix the world, the banks will make money like crazy again. B of A will be worth triple from where it is in 5 years from now, likely even much sooner... No doubt.

  • Report this Comment On August 13, 2009, at 12:20 PM, neilb1234 wrote:

    I made the same bet on BOA. But at $2.75 a share.

  • Report this Comment On August 13, 2009, at 12:34 PM, wasmick wrote:

    Easiest trade in the world....when BAC, C, WFC and to some degree JPM took irrational beatings the inevitable pop was obvious. I'm just surprised he took so long to do it.

  • Report this Comment On August 13, 2009, at 1:07 PM, plbeekman wrote:

    For the first (and only) time in life, I invested on my own when I bought as much of BofA as I could afford when it was at $5.00 a share. One, I thought there was no way the Feds would let BofA go under and two, I thought that the share price was absurdly low. I felt that the share price would take off when the economy turned and money started pouring back into real estate and into the market in general. Talk about a blind squirrel finding a nut! This has been one good tasting nut! Despite my good fortune on this one investment, I'll leave any future investments I make to my broker.

  • Report this Comment On August 13, 2009, at 1:22 PM, Fool4Graham wrote:

    You n00bs, this guy is always one step ahead of you. Sure, he got into BAC near its lows in the second quarter. He knew it was oversold and that the government money would prop it up. Now that every fool (small "f") has been rushing in to buy, he's probably dumping or will dump his position here in the third Q, since there's very little upside given how far the stock has run up. This guy like sure bets, and he's not going to hold a richly valued P/E stock when he knows the numbers are cooked and Q3 and Q4 are going to be lackluster to terrible now that expectations are high. As usual, you will be one step behind him and buying the BAC shares he's dumping this Q.

  • Report this Comment On August 13, 2009, at 1:45 PM, LMAO4reals wrote:

    I love pessimism. It's helped my BAC shares purchased between hit prices between the 3 to 5 area increase significantly (more than 480% "averaged") in only less than 6 months. I've made more $$$ in this one single stock than many individuals will make in a lifetime.

    When BAC pays back the TARP and reinstates their dividend, it will eventually trade back up to the 30s and 40s and someday usurp the highs in the mid 50s. Congrats to all those who had the tenacity to believe in this institution and purchase shares at bargain basement prices. The current price in the 16 area may seem inflated now, but you'll look back a year from now and it'll look cheap. BAC will be here long after we've passed, so make your investments incrementally at these levels and you'll surely reap the rewards of a solid investment.

  • Report this Comment On August 13, 2009, at 3:06 PM, imafoolishfool wrote:

    Fool4Graham -- I agree with you. I love this part-- "he knows the numbers are cooked and Q3 and Q4 are going to be lackluster to terrible now that expectations are high." Thank you for the post.

  • Report this Comment On August 13, 2009, at 3:33 PM, LMAO4reals wrote:

    Actually, I'm partial to this portion:

    "since there's very little upside given how far the stock has run up".

    I heard this same analysis when BAC hit 7, 10, 12, etc. Some fail to realize that BAC was unfairly punished to historically low levels and has only recuperated 40% of those losses from its yearly high.

    When BAC hits 18, the same verbiage will be disseminated from another individual who failed to purchase BAC shares on the low. And as I type, BAC makes another new day high of 16.95 -

  • Report this Comment On August 14, 2009, at 1:49 AM, stocktrud wrote:

    In two years or, this is going to be a 30 dollar stock. End of story. Be patient, treat it as an investment and you will be just fine. It may have some bumps before it gets there, but it will get there.

  • Report this Comment On August 14, 2009, at 5:05 AM, ingr72 wrote:

    Follow the Money and Movement of the stock price will make you money in the long term. BAC looks like it wants to continue it's charge to a higher ground.

    I own and have been trading this stock for about 6 months now ...and I have to laugh when some of you think you are smart enough to pick a price you think the stock will rise to.

    Wanna be smart ... ? keep your price targets to yourself and "Go with the Flow" as B of A or any other publicly traded company is on the move.

    I usually ONLY like to "Average Up" ( buy as the stock price moves up ) .. and consider selling if and when the stock price is falling.

    BAC looks good considering where the stock price once was and where it has been ( low single digits ) But you should NEVER fall in love ... because a company can break your heart ....

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