Recs

4

Is Mall-Based Retail Dead?

So far this earnings season, retailers' quarterly results have been far less than inspiring, as consumers remain deeply uninterested in opening their wallets. But amid the carnage, one retailer stands head and shoulders above the competition.

Which of these is not like the others?
After the most recent quarter's dismal results, investors clearly hope that shoppers perk up for the back-to-school season:

Company

CAPS rating (Out of 5)

Quarterly Earnings/Loss Per Share

Quarterly Sales Increase/Decrease

Same-Store Sales

Aeropostale (NYSE: ARO  )

**

$0.57

20%

12%

Hot Topic (Nasdaq: HOTT  )

*

($0.07)

(5.4%)

(7.7%)

Citi Trends (Nasdaq: CTRN  )

*

($0.00)

(3.5%)

(12.4%)

Gap (NYSE: GPS  )

*

$0.33

(7.1%)

(8%)

*All data from CAPS and Yahoo! Finance as of Aug. 24.

Gap managed to beat analysts' expectations by a penny, and its improved margins may have jazzed some investors. But come on -- Gap's one of retail's worst offenders, spending years on a supposed turnaround that just won't turn around. Same goes for long-suffering Talbots (NYSE: TLB  ) .

Judging by the one-star ratings that our CAPS community affixes to Gap, Hot Topic, and Citi Trends, mall-based retailers aren't exactly popular among investors. However, the oddly pessimistic two-star rating on Aeropostale might reveal an opportunity for savvy investors.

A solid stock idea
Aeropostale has been on my personal radar for a long time, thoroughly outshining rivals such as Abercrombie & Fitch (NYSE: ANF  ) and American Eagle Outfitters (NYSE: AEO  ) in operational success.

In its most recent quarter, Aeropostale increases earnings by 83%, boost sales 20%, and expand comps by 12%. It's trading at 15 times trailing earnings, which isn't too bad, considering that many worse-performing retailers are being exchanged at heftier multiples. Gap's also trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 15, which seems high, given its business weakness and the related uncertainties; Hot Topic's at nearly 17; and Citi Trends trades at 19 times.

As I said in the Fool's recent sector roundtable, investors certainly can find opportunity in the retail sector, but they must do so carefully. Look for retail leaders with real business strength, a competitive edge, and strong balance sheets.

In those respects, Aeropostale seems like the one stock in retail that actually looks hopeful.

 Read up on some related Foolishness on retail:

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Alyce Lomax does not own shares of any of the companies mentioned. The Fool has a disclosure policy. Try any of our Foolish newsletters free for 30 days.


Comments from our Foolish Readers

Help us keep this a respectfully Foolish area! This is a place for our readers to discuss, debate, and learn more about the Foolish investing topic you read about above. Help us keep it clean and safe. If you believe a comment is abusive or otherwise violates our Fool's Rules, please report it via the Report this Comment Report this Comment icon found on every comment.

  • Report this Comment On August 24, 2009, at 5:17 PM, ReadEmAnWeep wrote:

    yes

  • Report this Comment On August 24, 2009, at 7:28 PM, catoismymotor wrote:

    One mall I used to frequent as a kid has ZERO anchor stores. Sears, JC Penney's and Macy's are gone. There are a couple of stores like Hobby Lobby and Bed Bath & Beyond but all others are mom and pop shops. Of the retail spaces occupied about a quarter remain vacant. And the food court is only half occupied. I believe much of this has to do with changing demographics of the area but the economy is having a greater effect. I don't like to think the days of the indoor mall are over but it certainly does not look good.

  • Report this Comment On August 24, 2009, at 7:44 PM, TMFLomax wrote:

    Hey catoismymotor - wow, that is pretty chilling...yeah, the economic headwinds are really having an impact, and what you describe certainly does imply things are ugly for some malls in some places. Some of these mall-based retailers definitely may suffer from ill effects from things like that - no anchor stores in some malls is definitely sobering!

    A good reason to go for the leaders in retail... I don't think ALL malls will go away, but there may very well be a lot less of them... and a lot less stores of all types.

  • Report this Comment On August 24, 2009, at 9:21 PM, mikan0761 wrote:

    Citi Trends is not mall-based like the other retailers you mentioned. Also, the last quarter's results are not what they seem. To figure out what they mean, I suggest you dig a bit deeper.

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Related Tickers

2/13/2012 4:00 PM
ARO $17.55 Up +0.38 +2.21%
Aeropostale, Inc. CAPS Rating: *****
GPS $21.72 Up +0.13 +0.60%
Gap CAPS Rating: **
HOTT $8.04 Down -0.04 -0.50%
Hot Topic, Inc. CAPS Rating: *
TLB $3.18 Up +0.03 +0.95%
The Talbots, Inc. CAPS Rating: *
AEO $13.63 Down -0.14 -1.02%
American Eagle Out… CAPS Rating: ****
ANF $44.67 Down -0.40 -0.89%
Abercrombie & Fitc… CAPS Rating: *
CTRN $10.35 Down +0.00 +0.00%
Citi Trends CAPS Rating: ****

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