A 1-in-100 Investor

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The first 100 days in office sets the tone for any new president. Similarly, Motley Fool CAPS keeps an eye on how well investors do in their first 100 days. Some of our best -- we call them All-Stars -- have achieved scores of 100 on stock selections in their first 100 days on CAPS. In this column, we're looking at our best members who made some of their best stock selections early on and seeing which ones they think will be best next.

One of our highest rated CAPS members is vanamonde, who sports a top 99.99 member rating. A member since August 2007, vanamonde has 171 active picks on CAPS out of almost 1,000 stock picks made. Achieving 85% accuracy, vanamonde has attracted 199 "groupies," CAPS members who've listed this leading investor as one of their favorites.

Here are a few of this top member's most recent stock selections, and how they were rated.

Stock	CAPS Rating (out of 5)	Call	Price*	Current Score
AMAG Pharmaceuticals (Nasdaq: AMAG)	***	Outperform	$42.33	2.26
China Security & Surveillance Technology (NYSE: CSR)	*****	Outperform	$6.39	0.20
DynCorp International	***	Outperform	$17.99	(3.90)
Gladstone Capital	****	Outperform	$7.24	(1.70)
Idenix Pharmaceuticals	***	Outperform	$3.16	(1.54)
Lion's Gate Entertainment	***	Outperform	$6.64	(5.42)
MetroPCS Communications (NYSE: PCS)	***	Outperform	$7.99	2.40
Onyx Pharmaceuticals	***	Outperform	$30.66	4.86
Pharmaceutical Product Development (Nasdaq: PPDI)	*****	Outperform	$20.00	(1.80)
ViroPharma (Nasdaq: VPHM)	*****	Outperform	$8.17	(1.18)

Source: Motley Fool CAPS. *Price when call was made. Current score is how many points a member is beating (lagging) the S&P 500 index from the time of the call.

Let's examine what other CAPS members are saying about a few of these stocks, and see whether they agree with this top player's assessment.

Degree of risk
As pharmaceutical giants like Pfizer (NYSE: PFE) run scared, fearful that generic rivals will pull their market rug out from under them, what's a tiny biotech like ViroPharma to do when the Food and Drug Administration opens the palace gates of competition? Why, go out and buy the next winning drug, of course!

ViroPharma's stock tumbled last month, after an FDA panel said generic-drug makers didn't need to incur expensive clinical trials before bringing a drug to market. That was bad news for ViroPharma's Vancocin therapy because Mylan Labs (NYSE: MYL) and others had held off on introducing a generic version of the antibiotic because of costs. With that roadblock removed now, Mylan and Akorn have quickly submitted knock-off versions for approval.

ViroPharma was once a one-hit wonder, but maybe it saw the writing on the wall. Last year, it bought Lev Pharmaceuticals and its Cinryze, a treatment for a rare swelling disorder. The biotech says it's still in an acquisitive mood; rather than sell itself to the highest bidder, it wants to be the buyer. Nor is it looking to partner up Cinryze, either -- unless the deal is very lucrative. This seems to indicate that management is quite confident in its ability to grow its business all on its own. It may also explain why, earlier this year, insiders bought up shares and money managers accumulated stock.

CAPS member briansal suggested earlier this summer that ViroPharma was ready to run, and that another acquisition would be a smart move:

They have some made some smart deals in the past year (Cinryze) essentially have a generic drug (Vancocin) that is selling and growing like it is still under patent protection due to a trade secret that continues to lock out the competition and should continue to do so. I am not too worried about competition from Optimer's fidaxomicin, nor anticipated generic vancomycin competition. I love situations like this and do not find that many of them.

A 1-in-100 opportunity
Some of the best and smartest members in the CAPS investor intelligence community have made their mark, but it pays to start your own research on these stocks on Motley Fool CAPS. Read a company's financial reports, scrutinize key data and charts, and examine the comments your fellow investors have made -- all from a stock's CAPS page.

As hockey great Wayne Gretzky once noted, "You miss 100% of the shots you never take." At Motley Fool CAPS, every investor's opinion counts. Since it's free to sign up, why not use this opportunity to take your best shot?