5 Reasons to Worry About Sirius XM

If you think that this column will constitute a public bashing of Sirius XM Radio (Nasdaq: SIRI  ) , you're absolutely right. Then again, I'm also writing about the five reasons for investors not to worry about the satellite-radio heavyweight today. But for now, let's set optimism aside and discuss why you should start fretting.

1. Subscribers, come back
By now, everyone knows that Sirius XM's user base peaked last year, with sequential declines in each of this year's first two quarters.

I'm going to throw some numbers at you. See if you can guess what they are:

  • 2006: 3.2 million
  • 2007: 4.4 million
  • 2008: 6.1 million

Net subscriber additions? You wish. Howard Stern fans who have migrated to satellite radio? Not quite. We're looking at the number of combined Sirius and XM subscribers who cancelled their service.

As great as satellite radio may be, 6.1 million accounts -- more than a third of its base at the start of 2008 -- deactivated. Some listeners can't pay. Some simply won't.

The trend is only getting worse, with 3.3 million cancellations through the first six months of 2009. Sirius bulls may dream of covering the continent with activated receivers, but the harsh reality is that 17 million subscribers have walked away over the past 3 1/2 years.

2. Conversions are slipping
High churn isn't a model killer, as long as a company can add gross subscribers cheaply. Sirius XM has managed to lower its subscriber acquisition costs, but it can't seem to accelerate the signups.

I'll spare you the guessing game this time. Here are the gross subscriber additions for the combined company:

  • 2006 : 7.7 million
  • 2007: 8.1 million
  • 2008: 7.7 million

Stack up the cancellations against the gross additions, and you will realize that the subscriber count may have peaked in 2008, but subscriber growth levels peaked in 2006, long before the recession hit so many other leisure industries.

As for the actual gross additions, they're eerily consistent for what is presumably a growth industry. In reality, several factors are smoothing out the numbers. Retail additions -- the Sirius and XM fans who go out and physically buy a receiver, instead of settling for factory-installed units -- have been shrinking. Sirius XM has been ramping up the number of new-model cars that come equipped with satellite radio receivers (from 32% of cars built for sale in the United States in 2007 to 45% in 2008), but the conversion rates are slipping.

Over the past year, the percentage of new car buyers who choose to pay for Sirius or XM service after their free trials expire has shrunk from 50.6% to 44.4%.

Now, a company can overcome both growing cancellation rates and shrinking conversion rates if it can compensate with volume. Alas, satellite radio may no longer be the future of radio. Through the first half of 2009, Sirius XM landed just 2.7 million gross subscribers. The automotive market's meltdown is a major contributor, but even when folks are buying new cars, they're not as excited about satellite radio as they used to be.

3. Better mousetraps are always coming
Satellite radio has positioned itself as an alternative to terrestrial radio. In that respect, it's like LeBron James playing one-on-one against Dakota Fanning. AM and FM radio stations are shackled, ad-laden, and limited.

However, there's a reason why the net retail subscriber base at Sirius XM peaked in 2007 -- a year before the overall sub count petered out: There are too many aural alternatives outside of the car. Who wants to pay $15 a month for a home-docked satellite radio solution, when Internet radio offers deeper dives into genres and programming?

Isn't it just a matter of time before the Pandora-zation of cars arrives?

We're nearly there already. Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL  ) , Research In Motion (Nasdaq: RIMM  ) , and Palm (Nasdaq: PALM  ) are tacking on millions of new smartphone owners with unlimited data plans. Web-based radio has gone portable.

Verizon (NYSE: VZ  ) , Sprint Nextel (NYSE: S  ) , and now MobileOne have also gone from pitching mobile broadband cards to promoting the Novatel Wireless (Nasdaq: NVTL  ) MiFi mobile hotspot. Instead of a USB card that hooks up a single laptop, the MiFi creates a portable Wi-Fi bubble that remotely provides online connectivity for up to five devices.

Smartphones and mobile hotspots aren't cheap, but we're also talking about the tens of millions of users who'd make for ideal Sirius XM subscribers.

4. The Howard Stern Burn
No matter what you may think of the randy free-thinker, his impact on satellite radio is undeniable. He transformed Sirius Satellite Radio from underdog to top dog in the eventual Sirius-XM merger.

However, Stern's five-year contract is up at the end of next year. Some will argue that he will never return to terrestrial radio, where he entertained a larger but less lucrative audience.

I agree, but why is that the only option? Stern isn't getting any younger, and he has certainly amassed the wealth to retire now while he can still enjoy it. He can also strike out on his own. It's telling that Stern's contract didn't make his two Sirius channels available on Apple's App Store platform. Technology has evolved to the point where he can launch his own premium Internet radio offering.

Either way, there are probably millions of people who were swayed to Sirius as a result of Stern's arrival. Will they stick around if he bolts at the end of 2010?

5. The roads less traveled
Are we driving less?

If you spent less time in front of your television, axing your cable or satellite television bill would be an easy call. The same thing can happen behind the wheel, with Sirius XM's lifeblood at stake.

There are fewer trends out there hotter than auto sharing. Zipcar is the pioneering leader, growing at a 30% clip and offering cars by the hour through 8,500 businesses and 120 college campuses.

Folks who share a car -- Zipcar notably offers an eco-friendly, high-tech system where iPhones reserve and unlock gassed-up cars -- save an average of $600 a month. Car sharers learn to drive less, giving the movement green appeal.

Zipcar's success has its imitators, as Hertz, U-Haul, and grant-backed non-profits rev up in this nascent market. Even if bulls suggest that satellite radio subscriptions make sense in shared cars -- as they do in the car rental space -- we're still talking about reducing the number of cars on the road, and with them, the potential pool of Sirius XM subscribers.

Several aspects of Sirius XM's model have already peaked:

  • The sheer number of net subscriber additions topped out in 2006.
  • Retail subscriber totals maxed out in 2007.
  • Overall subscribers hit a peak in 2008.

Are you still comfortable in Sirius XM as a growth industry? Before you answer, check out the five reasons not to worry about Sirius XM.

Apple is a Motley Fool Stock Advisor recommendation. Sprint Nextel is a Motley Fool Inside Value selection. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days.

Longtime Fool contributor Rick Munarriz is a subscriber to both Sirius and XM. He does not own shares in any of the companies in this story. He is also a member of the Rule Breakers analytical team, seeking out the next great growth stock early in its defiance. The Fool has a disclosure policy.


Read/Post Comments (54) | Recommend This Article (20)

Comments from our Foolish Readers

Help us keep this a respectfully Foolish area! This is a place for our readers to discuss, debate, and learn more about the Foolish investing topic you read about above. Help us keep it clean and safe. If you believe a comment is abusive or otherwise violates our Fool's Rules, please report it via the Report this Comment Report this Comment icon found on every comment.

  • Report this Comment On September 10, 2009, at 5:05 PM, PTURBED wrote:
  • Report this Comment On September 10, 2009, at 5:05 PM, trammen0 wrote:

    Rick you have completely showed your ability or lack of ability by writting two articles that are completly rediculous... Don't play both fields....

  • Report this Comment On September 10, 2009, at 5:16 PM, voicedupdotcom wrote:

    Fair recap

  • Report this Comment On September 10, 2009, at 5:30 PM, nfenner wrote:

    Since I'm one of the losers who bought SIRI when it was $4 a share, I can only hope that this article is full of lies. But one fact in this article really stood out. That is the Pandorization of cars. I have a blackberry and i stream pandora all day at the office, and in my car on the way to and from work. I simply hook it up to the auxiallry jack. As a result, I haven't listened to FM radio for well over a month. Why would I when I get commercial free Pandora and the ability to change stations that play only music I like. All of this for $36 a year. Slightly more if you factor the BB data package. In any case, the point is that better products are available. I've listened to satellite radio before and I really like it, but I dont like it enough to pay $12-$15 a month. If SIRI wants a shot a survival they will have to lower the price, consider providing it for free and charging for premium stations, or use those expensive satellites for wifi or mobile satellite TV.

  • Report this Comment On September 10, 2009, at 5:32 PM, Terryoutofit wrote:

    Rick you have a sense of humor .....

  • Report this Comment On September 10, 2009, at 5:40 PM, king4life wrote:

    You offered data from Sirius but you didn't offer any data from the Alternative Competition. Sirius is providing their data as a public company and everyone else gets acclaim by default. Is a Zipcar really in the Sirius demographic? When is Pandora going to sign Oprah?

    Is Zipcar or Pandora profitable? You could not even provide that data. How's the AT&T service to Auto's coming along?

    The FCC required Sirius/XM to add minority channels.

    The opportunity to diversify Howard's numbers is an opportunity.

    Perhaps the savings on the merger will allow SIRI to operate profitable with lower number of subscribers.

    But you didn't provide that information either.

    Sirius/XM was able to get 17-19 MILLION people to pay money when all the cars had FREE radio. Will the Auto's stop installing AM/FM radio's because of the Smart phone? How come Sirius/XM didn't lose more subscribers during the second great depression.

    Broadcast TV and Free radio have bigger challenges than SiriusXM

  • Report this Comment On September 10, 2009, at 5:48 PM, GuinnessRC4 wrote:

    Thank you for stating to those who long this stock something we already know... We know this stock, we know the numbers, we know the prospect of the future. It is a shame that there is not many other stocks that get bashed this bad.

    This stock was $0.05 a little time ago, get over it, cover something else.

    You are going to be waiting quite a long time to get the oppurtunity to say I told you so... Seriously are you paid for what you write? I know there has to be someone else that could do better. LONG SIRI

  • Report this Comment On September 10, 2009, at 5:53 PM, dedmunds wrote:

    ALL WASHED UP CAN'T FIND ANYTHING BETTER TO DO SOOOOO SADDDD

    GET A LIFE DOING SOMETHING ELSE!!

    NOBODY CARES ANYMORE ANYWAY!!

  • Report this Comment On September 10, 2009, at 5:55 PM, cantbefoolish wrote:

    Rick, why do you argue with yourself so much? Are you schizophrenic?

  • Report this Comment On September 10, 2009, at 5:59 PM, dstnewman wrote:

    Rick: I am disappointed that you did not take Mr. Matthews challenge for this type of format as opposed to doing it by yourself. I challenged another of your Foolish friends to the same debate and have yet to hear anything, but there might be some behind the scenes stuff that prevent you from doing so.

    This is actaully a decent recap, but I still have a few issues with your "facts" (remember? I said the Fool was the king of "technically true but misleading" in your last article?):

    Retail Slump: The companies were basically handcuffed by the FCC for 2 years. By the time they were actually given approval for the merger, there was almost no way to get a retail product to market by the holiday season. You also fail to mention that Sirius XM just had a huge Holiday Product Preview where they are going to be releaseing a slew of new retail products. Such products can stimulate the retail invironment.

    Subscriber Slump: You did an excellent job collecting the fact that so many people had canceled their subscription... but how many of those were actually self paying? Because of the dynamics between companies like Ford and Chrysler, those subscriptions are paid up front, and counted as a subscriber. They may have NEVER had intention on becoming a subscriber. They did not make the concious effort to cancel, instead simply let the trial offer expire (usually, unused at all).

    Perhaps it is the overall lack of analysis here at Fool.com, but no one here ever runs any numbers to predict subscriber growth. I did, over at http://www.satwaves.com. My analysis showed that through the first 2 months of Q3, the company will ADD positive subscriber numbers (and I used worse case scenario numbers too).

    Just like cell phone reception, WiFi will never be universal. "Can you hear me now? Hello? HELLO? Damn dropped call..." But you want to talk about cell phones taking over for radio? Ok.. how about the XM SkyDock? A dock that uses the iPhone as its interface to get music directly from the satellites while at the same time keeping your phone charged. Rumor has it that Apple will also be selling iPhones through Verizon starting this Spring, opening up the market for Sirius XM.

    The future for Sirius XM is bright.

    David "Newman" Phillips

    http://www.satwaves.com

    newman@satwaves.com

  • Report this Comment On September 10, 2009, at 7:50 PM, TallKenNJ wrote:

    I am sorry but you are all ignoring (to paraphrase Tony Soprano) the 800-pound elephant in the room. There is one factor and ONLY one factor that will determine the long-term viabilty of SIRI. Once you have the correct answer on how this one factor will resolve itself, you will know whether to buy or sell this stock. It has nothing to do with the economy or auto sales or debt or anything else you can calculate via SIRI's balance sheet, and this one factor WILL be resolved one way or the other in the next 16 months. Of course, I am referring to Howard Stern. I guarantee.... GUARANTEE... that if and when Howard decides to re-sign with Sirius XM, the share price will surge. Unfortunately, I can similarly guarantee that if, on the other hand, Howard announces at some point in the next 16 months that he will be done with SIRI when his contract expires, the stock will lose whatever limited value it has and SIRI will be on the way to bankruptcy. IT may well survive a bankruptcy, but, if it comes out of a bankruptcy without Howard, it can only survive as a much leaner and smaller company with much more limited long term goals (and, frankly, if you are a current stockholder, who really cares what it does post-bankruptcy). The simple fact is that no rational person is going to continue to pay $15 or more per month for commercial-free music alone... not when everybody from pre-teens to grandparents already have an IPOD that can be used to not only play endless commercial-free music, but play it from each individual's own personal playlist. However, it has already been proven that people.... MILLIONS of people.... WILL pay $15 per month to listen to Howard. Unfortunately, I can't remember who wrote it, but another analyst recently wrote an article that basically stated (and, yes, I am paraphrasing): SIRI needs to realize that it is in the Howard Stern business and not the other way around. In other words, if we hope to make something on our investment (and, yes, I do own shares), we need to convince SIRI to do whatever it takes to get Howard under contract, ideally for another 5 years or more. Absent that, the slow decline in current subscribers will become a torrent as next year winds down.

    I like the Mad Dog and I understand that there are people who listen to Oprah Radio and other such offerings that SIRI provides, but I also know Stern fans. I listen to my Sirius radio literally 4 or 5 or 6 hours every single day and, most days, 100% of that time is spent listening to Howard. My alarm clock goes off at 5:55 am every morning so I can turn on the satellite radio to catch the start of the Stern show at 6 am and listen as I get ready for and drive to work (where I arrive at 8 am or so). Then, upon getting home from work in the evening, I turn on Howard again and listen to an entire replay of the morning's show (including the "Wrap-Up Show" afterwards), often until after midnight. Then, I go to bed so I can start the process over again the next morning. If you are not a Stern fan, you may not believe or understand this, but it is a fact and I am NOT an oddity. I am a VERY typical fan. I consider $15/month a BARGAIN for this kind of entertainment. Take Howard away and suddenly I am paying $15/month for something I won't even use. Do the math.

  • Report this Comment On September 10, 2009, at 7:51 PM, D0M1N8R wrote:

    lets not forget the $2 RIAA tax thats been added to the bill (or going to be shortly?)

  • Report this Comment On September 10, 2009, at 8:34 PM, Redmond1 wrote:

    Rick, is this your day job?

  • Report this Comment On September 10, 2009, at 9:01 PM, karmazen wrote:

    The bottom line is........when Sirius XM becomes profitable, That is when this stock price will take off. When is thta going to happen, its anybodies guess. I want to be in WHEN it happens. Long Sirius XM.

  • Report this Comment On September 10, 2009, at 10:08 PM, timd209 wrote:

    First good 2 relevant articles about SIRI that MF has posted in a long time. I hope they are not the last.

  • Report this Comment On September 10, 2009, at 10:54 PM, jacobske wrote:

    Rick,

    Thanks for the two articles! I think you're finally trying to fairly tackle the issues and more in line with the analysis I get from other MF analyst. I still can't use Pandora overseas--service is blocked by Pandora. I love Sirius over the net where I'm at overseas--sound quality is fabulous and the price is cheap.

    Thoughts and questions for you:

    What would SIRI have to do for you to recommend them as a buy on one of the MF newsletter services?

    Your comment: "The automotive market's meltdown is a major contributor, but even when folks are buying new cars, they're not as excited about satellite radio as they used to be." A 44% retention rate for new car purchasers keeping Sirius is a great number even in a down market. Definitely not as good as it used to be. It will be interesting to see what direction that number goes to in the future.

    Have you seen any studies/analyses on internet radio wifi vs satellite radio--coverage, satisfaction, cost, health impacts of radiation, etc.?

    Again, thanks for taking a balanced (pro/con) look at SIRI. It's going to be very interesting to watch this company over the next couple of years.

    Kip

    Long SIRI -- cost basis .09

  • Report this Comment On September 11, 2009, at 2:17 AM, GenChaos wrote:

    For most parts, I'm with the author here. Point #3 is really the reason why this company is not going to survive as it is right now imo. Despite that I'm banking on one last rally by SIRI. If it goes to even $2 I'll be a very happy guy.

  • Report this Comment On September 11, 2009, at 5:34 AM, crazycanucklad wrote:

    The fact of the matter is Sirius/XM has some of the worst customer service in the world, it takes literally MONTHS to get your radio fixed if it's broken, and in the meantime it's as if they think you can live without their service and make no attempts to make the time away from your satellite radio better. It gets to the point where you convince yourself, "you know what? I CAN live without this" and then you let your subscription expire. They really need to take a queue from Apple, put up stores in every city that will service and repair your radios so you are never without your satellite for long. Now it might be fine if you could say buy a small little backup radio, but guess what, you need a new subscription to get that to work. Now maybe you could complain to get something but you definitely have to complain or it's a nice 3 months without what you paid for. I'm a Sirius/XM shareholder and I'm really pissed how the company doesn't seem to care about it's customers outside of trying to get them to buy and rebuy the same thing over and over again. Yes Howard Stern matters, but they need to realize just how annoying being a satellite listener can be. Even if your satellite radio never breaks down the fact you need multiple subscriptions if you have more than one radio is such a tough hill for most people to climb. Anyways that's my rant, and without separate paragraphs to boot.

  • Report this Comment On September 11, 2009, at 6:28 AM, SIRIDoom wrote:

    SIRI NASDQ ALERT

    -Today is the last day for SIRI before the NasDq delisting process.

    Close of trading today SIRI is officially noncompliant of the NasDq $1.00 rule. The clock for SIRI delisting from the NasDq will be ticking down to disaster.

    SIRI Mel’s answer to the NasDq will include the alarming words “REVERSE SPLIT”. The words “REVERSE SPLIT” are going to ring alarms of disaster to all who currently hold SIRI stock.

    SIRI Mel now has a duty to inform stock holders of the NasDq letter and the SIRI response with intention to reverse split. The market will be informed regardless of how much money Mel has panned out to suppress this news.

    The Fedex truck will be on the road with the NasDq noncompliance letter by 5pm today.

    Mel’s planed penny stock scam of December 18, 2008 has come full circle.

    Mel explained to stock holders his plan to issue stock to pay debt then, reverse split the stock to recover saturation and be compliant of the NasDq. Mel’s plan has always been “a penny stock scam designed to rip off stock holders”.

  • Report this Comment On September 11, 2009, at 8:59 AM, rjoh107 wrote:

    How To Quickly Remove Motley Fool articles from your Yahoo Headlines 10-Sep-09 08:52 pm

    1. Click the "Filter Headlines" link at the top of the Headline article section of the Yahoo SIRI main quote info page.

    2. Uncheck motley Fool from the main and external headline sections (2 checks)

    3. Click "Finish" at the upper/right of the screen.

    Hasta la vista MFers!! :)

  • Report this Comment On September 11, 2009, at 10:12 AM, cantbefoolish wrote:

    SIRIDoom, you say reverse split like it's a bad thing. Shall I remind you of AIG? And they owe the government big time. SIRI doesn't.

    Also, why would Mel want to rip off shareholders, when he has millions of his own shares?

  • Report this Comment On September 11, 2009, at 10:16 AM, socialtool wrote:

    I cancelled my subscription when they merged and took away my Fungus 53.

  • Report this Comment On September 11, 2009, at 10:27 AM, davion13 wrote:

    For the love of god, SIRI is not getting delisted today!!!

    They're going to file for an extension and then they'll have 1 whole year to get their share price over $1.00.

    In that time, with covered calls alone and assuming absolutely zero price appreciation from my 0.30 cost basis, I'm going to turn a 100% profit. And if, by chance, they report a profit at any time between now and then, you'll see a big surge in price, really fast.

    Don't get me wrong, SIRI is a very risky investment but weigh the pros and cons:

    -Post re-fi, low risk of bankruptcy and complete loss of principal

    -Moderate to low risk of reverse split

    -Limited downside potential due to low cost/share

    -HUGE Colossally high upside potential (50% to %1500 in a year depending on your cost basis and what the tea leaves tell you their value will be going forward)

    -Fantastically profitable call/stock price ratios for a covered call strategy (usually 15% by my 0.30 cost basis). I’ve been selling $1 strike, one month duration covered calls for .05 for the past three months. Do the math – that’s a 200% annualized dividend on my principle.

    At around $0.70 a share I don’t think the risk/upside is worth it, but if you got in at .50 or less – way, WAY long SIRI.

  • Report this Comment On September 11, 2009, at 11:06 AM, JPS007 wrote:

    Oh My, where does one begin..

    1. Rick talks about subscriber loses as if its a trajectory that cannot be changed. In his assessment, he ignores increased penetration, new content, new hardware, and more access options (iPhone, Internet, etc), as improvements that will turn those number around. Based on his assessment, one would conclude that its all over, and there is nothing that can be done to right the ship.

    2. See #1...Same thing.

    3. Rick, you obviously don't listen to Internet Radio. Its basically crap. No Maden, No Mad Dog, No Anyone. And sure Pandora may ONE day appear in a car. And sure one day, we may have cars than can fly, but who wants to pay $40 a spotty Internet Connection when you can get Sat Radio for $15?

    3. Howard Stern is one of many personalities at SIRI, and while they may lose some subscribers if he leaves. Most will stay on. Plus, think of the cost savings SIRI will have when they don't have to pay Howard. For the same reason all of Howards fans didn't flock to sat Radio, I'd suggest that those that did, will not leave. Sat Radio has too many other things that Howards Fans can't get anywhere else.

    5. I don't even know where to begin on this one. Zipcar? Never heard of it. Is this some kind of threat? I'm laughing right now. And subs peaked in 2006. That is a FUBAR assessment. He doesnt take the time to understand that SIRI hasn't even advertised in the last two years. Their focus has been totally on cost control measures, and not on subscriber growth....I'm not even going to try to respond to this one anymore. a total Joke.

    This guy has no business writing articles anywhere. I guess the good thing is that he writes for MF which everyone knows is garbage and it just after clicks! (why else would these articles be slit into two.

  • Report this Comment On September 11, 2009, at 11:23 AM, kriston wrote:

    I'm sorry, but you're being really silly about treaming audio to cars. It is not going to work long-term. The only reason it works today is because so few people are using it. The only thing that does work is broadcasting and mobile Internet Radio is NOT broadcasting.

    If Sirius XM can cover all the genres that drive people to listen to Internet radio, and become more like the old XM service was, they will be in a position to own the broadcasting market.

    You ever meet a New York City car commuter who is happy with his iPhone's data plan? That's right, you haven't.

    Mobile internet streaming radio is already hitting the capacity plateau in major markets. It is not viable.

    This month's Radio World magazine has a detailed examination of the bandwidth requirements of mobile internet streaming radio. You need to read it.

  • Report this Comment On September 11, 2009, at 1:06 PM, overbubba wrote:

    I stream slacker in my car and on the motorcycle almost everyday. had 4 subs to sirius and when my last 2 prepaids run out I will have 0.

    One thing that killed Sirius is when Howard came over he was supposed to have 3 channels of content. THe radio reveolution What we got was 4 days of Howard and the NOTHING on the other stations. With all the time Howard took off I found other things to listen to. The iPHONE will kill SatRad! Sirius is not in competition with Radio but the alternatives and it cannot compete.

  • Report this Comment On September 11, 2009, at 1:13 PM, firestorm62 wrote:

    Here is the real story. The stock is down a couple of cents today and the shorts are having orgasms as evidenced by several of them supporting this piece of trash article and attempting to influence more intelligent investors who are quite knowledgeable of the background of this stock and it's potential.

  • Report this Comment On September 11, 2009, at 2:08 PM, kriston wrote:

    Now that I think of it more, and read another article on MediaFLO, Qualcomm needs to get busy and put attractive radio stations on MediaFLO for in-car use. They're pushing the video too much. We want better music and MediaFLO could be a viable contender now that the digital transitions are done and they have nationwide coverage for MediaFLO.

  • Report this Comment On September 11, 2009, at 2:39 PM, firestorm62 wrote:

    kriston, are you for real or are you programmed for automatic meaningless responses in support of the short traders?

  • Report this Comment On September 11, 2009, at 3:27 PM, rickmt57 wrote:

    Lets see every major car company in the world installs SirusXM in their cars because Sirus is a failure and wont be here next year according to you dumb asses. The free internet radio that isnt free anymore is a joke, it has no programing or personalities but you idiots must have a lot invested in it. Sirus is in the process of turning a profit and once that happenes it will open the door for greater success. Oh I forgot if Howard leaves then we might as well throw our radios out the window because all of Sirus revolves around one man, damm he must be good. I really dont think Howard is going to leave to go back to regular radio where they controlled him, or maybe he will go to your beloved pandora....LMAO at that one. If you too had a brain the size of your egoes you might be able to screw in a light bulb.

  • Report this Comment On September 11, 2009, at 3:28 PM, rickmt57 wrote:

    Hey Rick are you the bottom or the top?

  • Report this Comment On September 11, 2009, at 3:59 PM, firestorm62 wrote:

    rickmt57, tell us how your really feel! Anyway, you da man!

  • Report this Comment On September 11, 2009, at 4:02 PM, rickmt57 wrote:

    These two idiots have a hidden agenda and they should be investigated and locked up.

  • Report this Comment On September 11, 2009, at 4:19 PM, kriston wrote:

    firestorm, I'm paying attention to the whole broadcast media sector, not just playing with amateurs who read online message boards.

  • Report this Comment On September 11, 2009, at 6:34 PM, firestorm62 wrote:

    kriston, I am certain that everyone is extremely impressed with your wealth of knowledge of the whole broadcast media sector. Not!

  • Report this Comment On September 11, 2009, at 7:00 PM, firestorm62 wrote:

    Incidentally kriston, is a significant portion of your

    $300.00 portfolio invested in the broadcast media sector?

  • Report this Comment On September 11, 2009, at 9:11 PM, shallam1313 wrote:

    I am Sirius subscriber and hope to be so for a long time. I think what some bloggers fail to understand about Sirius is that it is not just about the music. As an investor, I listen to Bloomberg and CNBC to and from work. If I didn't have Sirius, I could not do so. Period.

    The amazing amount of content available to you for only $15 a month is well worth it in my mind. I hope the company continues for a long time.

    Also, I think it's funny that so many investors/traders are intrigued by SIRI the equity. I can't believe how many articles are devoted to the company.

  • Report this Comment On September 11, 2009, at 11:27 PM, JWILLI44 wrote:

    What many people seem to miss is that there is a difference between "streaming music" and radio. All the talk about unlimited data plans allowing for free radio such as Pandora is false. Pandorara isn't radio,it is just streaming music. Radio has news, talk, comedy, etc... Also, what radio station can just stream music with no dj or personality behind it? A algorithm is not a dj!!! What is the difference in listening to Pandora and your own random playlist? Pandora plays songs that match your interest. You can do that yourself with your playlist! If every radio station, even terrestrial could just stream music with no human input, they would save a lot of money. However, that is not what "radio" is. That is streaming music. Some like like Pandora like services, but long term they will tire of it. Most people want a variety and some human input, such as a dj...news, personality. radio is not just music...Are talk shows dead? comedy? is everyone out there a 20 year old that listens to only music from his favorite band and has no other interest? no....SIRIUS XM will always have demand

  • Report this Comment On September 12, 2009, at 4:44 AM, rfsfool wrote:

    Your efforts to count the decline in sales and subscribership over the last few years did not take into account that many people like myself, knew the merger would take place (It did take over two years for the FCC to finally grant their blessing). We were waiting it out because we want to be stuck into a package plan, or subscription, to XM or Sirius. There were offerings we liked about both, a combined company would allow us to get the best of both worlds. So we held up buying and subsribing, many canceled their subscriptions to take advantage of the new deals that would be offered by the combined company. We are slowly getting what we wanted, although the increase in various fees and the down turn in the economy made us hold off some. So look for subscribership to grow as the economy turns around and the holiday season approaches... Satelite radio makes an awesome gift to the person who spends a lot of time in the car...

  • Report this Comment On September 12, 2009, at 7:08 AM, wuff3t wrote:

    "Rick you have completely showed your ability or lack of ability by writting two articles that are completly rediculous"

    Eh? Please translate into English.

  • Report this Comment On September 12, 2009, at 9:59 AM, wordcarr wrote:

    I'm with the author,seems to be a lot of bloggers that bash the MF writers for stating the facts. The facts are just that, facts.Sure there are those that like and pay for the service.The question is:are there enought people that will to pay for sat radio to make money ie profit for sat radio? Clearly the answer is no!!

  • Report this Comment On September 12, 2009, at 10:39 AM, NoMoeMoney wrote:

    WoW! Whats with this 'Fool' fixation on Sirius XM

    ?? Get off this dead old horse and find some other company to write about. There has to be like thousands of companies out there no one has even heard of and will do better than Sirius XM, geezz...

  • Report this Comment On September 12, 2009, at 3:13 PM, firestorm62 wrote:

    wordcarr, you are CLEARLY unqualified to make such a statement.

  • Report this Comment On September 12, 2009, at 6:02 PM, wordcarr wrote:

    Firestorm, unqualified because I can read! The net loss of subs by sat radio is published info. See above,not only there but in other trade pubs too!! The author's info is correct,the fact remains sat radio does not have enought subs to pay the bills.

    After reveiwing your statements here it is clear that you feel that you have some inside info. To what part of the fifth estate do you belong? Share your sources,so all could be as enlighhten as you!!

  • Report this Comment On September 15, 2009, at 10:55 AM, firestorm62 wrote:

    wordcarr, after reviewing your statements here, it is clear that none of your $150.00 portfolio is invested in Sirius stock. As Bill O'Reilly would say, you can have the final word. Have a good day!

  • Report this Comment On September 15, 2009, at 1:58 PM, tanagain wrote:

    I have a reason to worry about Sirius that wasn't even mentioned here. I bought a car from another owner last year, and it had an XM radio. When her subscription ran out, I called to have it re-activated. I have now called three times, and I have had a friend call twice on my behalf, and every time after about a 20 to 30 minute wait on hold, I get to talk to someone in India who doesn't understand me, and we argue for about another half hour while they tell me they can't reactivate my radio because the person I bought this car from hasn't paid some of her bills. They think that I'm just trying to get around the system I guess, but it's really frustrating, because I'm more than willing to pay MY bills: a WANT-TO-BE subscriber, with a credit card in my hand ready to give it to them....and they won't take it.

    I can only imagine that millions of other people have tried to re-subscribe, only to find the long waits and customer service reps who don't speak english, all too daunting. The first few weeks without my XM I severely missed it. About a month down the road, I mildly missed it. It's been 6 months now...I barely even think about it anymore...

  • Report this Comment On September 15, 2009, at 3:04 PM, SirWatsonC wrote:

    The conversion rates keep dropping, and are now in the mid-40s. Management appears to understand this is an opportunity, and appears to be recruiting to improve the conversion rates. Or at least, on June 15, they posted a job opening. As of Sept 15 -- 3 months later -- it is still unfilled.

  • Report this Comment On September 15, 2009, at 3:07 PM, mikecart1 wrote:

    1 Reason to worry about TMF's Rick:

    He is a SIRI stalker but hate the stock and its shareholders.

    Loser.

  • Report this Comment On September 15, 2009, at 8:15 PM, firestorm62 wrote:

    tortilla, now you can live happily ever after without your XM. I am so happy that you have kicked the habit.

  • Report this Comment On September 17, 2009, at 6:03 AM, 8Lives wrote:

    I suspect the "Oprah Effect", considering she just joined SIRI XM. That fact that SIRI is still around speaks loudly for me, considering we've supposedly reached a bottom... I just got in to them at .68 & .69 -- "Oprah Winfrey" is value, long money.

  • Report this Comment On September 17, 2009, at 2:00 PM, mikecart1 wrote:

    5 Reasons why This Article Should Be Ignored:

    1) Rick has averaged at least 1 SIRI article per trading day for the entire year of 2009 (yes it is sad).

    2) Rick has been constantly wrong about SIRI during 2009.

    3) Rick seems to have an agenda for tearing down SIRI weekly.

    4) Rick has a split-personality and every now and then praises SIRI for being awesome.

    5) TMF hasn't stopped Rick's article writing priveledges yet.

  • Report this Comment On September 17, 2009, at 6:15 PM, Sleddawg63 wrote:

    As a program director of a terrestrial radio station I will not bash satellite radio. In fact in my market it affects me in a very, very small way.

    What concerns me far more than satellite radio is internet radio. Ford is introducing internet radio capability in their cars and if the internet gets it's act together it will be a much bigger deal to my business.

    Compared to internet radio, satellite radio is a huge trillion dollar commitment to space technology...and it's costly to own.

    Now this wave is still a few years away...still time to make some money on SIRI stock...but while people argue about Stern being the deciding factor...other, cheaper alternatives are on the way.

  • Report this Comment On September 18, 2009, at 1:04 PM, TxTom wrote:

    I think I know why MF writes an article on SIRI just about every week. They get LOADS of responses.

    Those who don't own the stock love this stuff, and those who are long the stock raise hell.

    I own it. Bought it at 14 cents. It may still go above a buck per share, but the process is now slow and tedious in the current range.

    I think I'll sell mine around 75 cents, and quit "hoping" this stock takes off. There are much better spec stocks. Try SQNM. I think you'll like it.

  • Report this Comment On September 19, 2009, at 10:00 PM, overtaxedMI wrote:

    Sirius XM Radio customer service is why their company is not doing well, we dropped our service with them, I look for them to go under if they don't change there ways!

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