Sirius: 91% Chance of NOT Going Bankrupt

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Stay away, soothsayers.

Accounting-risks watcher Audit Integrity has put out a list of the companies that are most likely to file for bankruptcy protection over the next 12 months.

Rite Aid (NYSE: RAD) leads the list of death-pool stocks that command market caps greater than $1 billion, with a 10.5% risk of filing, according to Audit Integrity's quantitative model.

Sirius XM Radio (Nasdaq: SIRI) follows the drugstore maker, with a 9% chance of declaring bankruptcy over the next year.

The notion that it will is ludicrous, on many different levels:

  • Sirius XM may have been teetering on the brink of fiscal collapse earlier this year, but a timely Liberty Media (Nasdaq: LCAPA) cash infusion slayed those demons. Yes, Liberty Media is also on Audit Integrity's top 10 list -- with a 5.6% probability of buckling -- but Sirius XM already has the money.
  • The satellite-radio giant recently extended looming debt maturities and has replaced debt with borrowings at more attractive rates.
  • Sirius XM has been inching its cash-flow guidance higher throughout the year.

Even Audit Integrity concedes that Sirius XM's position isn't as grave as it was earlier this year. Its quarterly Accounting and Governance Risk score has gone from the lowest 1% rating after Sirius XM's first quarter to 6% following the second quarter. Being in the sixth percentile still tags Sirius XM as "very aggressive," but the trend is improving.

It's important to point out that Rite Aid, Sirius, and bronze medalist AMR (NYSE: AMR) are on a ranked list of companies with market caps greater than $1 billion. This threshold eliminates the far riskier companies that are merely gasping for air before going under. Given their considerable debt levels, their enterprise values are even higher -- between $5 billion and $9 billion.

Some of the names on the list may fail, but it's hard to fathom that a company that's turned the corner, such as Sirius XM has -- with losses narrowing and cash flow prospects improving -- will head to bankruptcy court anytime soon.

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Longtime Fool contributor Rick Munarriz is a subscriber to both Sirius and XM. He owns no shares in any of the companies in this story. He is also a member of the Rule Breakers analytical team, seeking out the next great growth stock early in its defiance. The Fool has a disclosure policy.

Comments from our Foolish Readers

Help us keep this a respectfully Foolish area! This is a place for our readers to discuss, debate, and learn more about the Foolish investing topic you read about above. Help us keep it clean and safe. If you believe a comment is abusive or otherwise violates our Fool's Rules, please report it via the Report this Comment Report this Comment icon found on every comment.

  • Report this Comment On September 16, 2009, at 3:24 PM, SIRIDoom wrote:

    SIRI has big NASDAQ continued listing problems.

    SIRI has a double dip of NASDAQ compliance problems. 1. they are in violation of board member independence. 2. SIRI is in violation of the 1.00 min trade rule. SIRI has a planned rev-split of 10 – 50 for 1 share to satisfy the NASDAQ 1.00 rule..

  • Report this Comment On September 16, 2009, at 3:27 PM, HammerHead411 wrote:

    RAD doesn't look ready to file today..up 12% to $2.03. Agreed with your BK prediction when it was trading at .20 (not so sure now).

  • Report this Comment On September 16, 2009, at 3:31 PM, JPS007 wrote:

    This is the first balanced and well written article I've seen from MF EVER!

  • Report this Comment On September 16, 2009, at 3:32 PM, brandonmatthews wrote:

    Nice to see we agree on something....right down to the word "Ludicrous"

  • Report this Comment On September 16, 2009, at 3:38 PM, southernbeachguy wrote:

    Siri-doom, since you are the first to always respond to Motley Fool articles, I take it that you work for them? The Fool and you have both spread misinformation about Sirus for a long time.The headline in this article is another misleading attempt to Bash Sirus. What a sad state to think that unsuspecting people actually invest on misinformation put out by "The Fool".

    You should be ashamed!

  • Report this Comment On September 16, 2009, at 3:48 PM, rfcoz wrote:

    If that darn letter doesn't arrive soon, Siridoom will have to send it himself. If the letter is a non-event he'll have to cover over $1,oops

  • Report this Comment On September 16, 2009, at 3:48 PM, SIRIDoom wrote:

    It's just plain nuts to buy SIRI with NASDAQ delisting and rev-split risk. They need to fix this befor I go long again...

  • Report this Comment On September 16, 2009, at 4:02 PM, SIRIDoom wrote:

    SIRI got the letter on monday. They have 5 days responce grace before the 1,00 violation is added to the NASDAQ delisting pending list. They are already on the list for board independence violation. Friday close SIRI will be on the list for both reasons.

    Double truble. Just a matter of time before Mel is forced to respond with a SEC file to answer and provide his rev-split solution. This was already explained to stock holders December 08.

    The full NASDAQ dellisting link can be found here.

    http://www.nasdaq.com/services/DelDefOpenReport.pdf

  • Report this Comment On September 16, 2009, at 4:32 PM, plange01 wrote:

    sirius 99 % chance of going bankrupt.in fact without its current lifeline infushion of cash it already is.that infusion will have to end and then so will sirius....

  • Report this Comment On September 16, 2009, at 4:47 PM, JRSmithman wrote:

    thats fine with your report SIri-Doom so it is listed there

    but there is a difference when it comes to D-listed between Equity (which Sirius has no issues with that)

    Bid-Price ( Sirius has already hit the target price multiple times and the target price has been set to a 1.00 from .70)

    market value (Sirus is just going up as we know it in market price) and they are not delinquent as well which they have been able to pay off a percentage of their loans to Liberty) so what is you reasoning now?

  • Report this Comment On September 16, 2009, at 4:49 PM, JRSmithman wrote:

    I see Seeking Alpha denied your welcome as well that is why you have been posting here as well fits you MF'R)

  • Report this Comment On September 16, 2009, at 5:05 PM, SIRIDoom wrote:

    LOL you people want all good news. Sorry to upset the wishfull thinkers. The news is the news.

    Just wait and see what happens when Mel files a SEC spewing REV-SPLIT.

    SIRI has not traded 1.00 in over a year. It is going to be hard to reach 1,00 after this news is released. Then, SIRI will need to stay over 1.00 for 10 consecutive days to get off the delisting list. The rev-split is a real issue.

    Mel is keeping this under his hat for the last minute. I see a very bad wakeup for many uninformed...

  • Report this Comment On September 16, 2009, at 5:10 PM, timd209 wrote:

    SIRIDOOM = MF employee.

    on another note, SIRI will NOT get delisted, Nasdaq is just going through the steps it always goes through when a stock goes under $1. After nasdaq grants extention requests (they always do), Siri will pass the $1 mark early next year and avoid delisting. Reverse split is a ready to go backup plan in case SIRI doesn't hit the $1 mark in time.

    Siri-doom and MF (same people) just cant admit that they were wrong.

  • Report this Comment On September 16, 2009, at 5:39 PM, TxTom wrote:

    After buying SIRI at a much lower price, I'm beginning to believe it won't continue do much in the near future.

    Might as well take profits soon and stop watching this "dead money". There are just too many other stocks that will almost certainly make good gains in the more bullish market that exists today.

    This one is coming out of my spec stock portfolio this week.

    SQNM will replace it. Could be a four of five bagger with one positive news release.

    Good luck all.

  • Report this Comment On September 16, 2009, at 5:50 PM, ybnvsbu wrote:

    Siri from .05 to .70 in a matter of several months. The SEC will wait a few more months before delisting is considered. It is hard to realistically bash a 14 baggar, even if it is a penny stock. I believe the "Fools" that did not get in back in February are the only ones left bashing this stock! "Pick it up, put it in, and die like a man".

  • Report this Comment On September 16, 2009, at 6:18 PM, dedmunds wrote:

    SIRIDoom is writing like a scared chicken..HA HA HA

  • Report this Comment On September 16, 2009, at 6:31 PM, RAF22 wrote:

    The anticipated non-compliance letter is a formality and the reality is that Sirius XM will have from six months to twelve months to have the stock sustain trading above 1.00 before any reverse split would be contemplated. Given the current performance of SIRI and the upside trajectory that is now dominant, it is highly probable that the stock will sustain trading above 1.00 long before any reverse split would be required. SIRI-Doom is merely a "fear monger" who has been correctly thrown off more responsible sites due to his constant assertion of falsehoods. I guess he feels at home here with Motley Fool - as he has been consistently wrong ever since the stock began rallying from the low 30's (just as the Motley Fool writers have been). Constantly crying that "the sky is falling" just doesn't work at this time - as the non compliance letter SIRI-Doom keeps wailing about has been completely discounted by knowledgeable investors in SIRI and the current price action speaks for itself.

  • Report this Comment On September 16, 2009, at 8:27 PM, geoslv wrote:

    I think Karmazin would be an amateur if he didn't do the reverse split. How can adult posters think a company's gonna sit around pining for the price to rise for 6 months. Besides there's such a thing as "plans" in this world, something else over some people's heads. $5 per share is an intelligent plan ... without commenting on possible manipulation.

    thanks for the useful updates Siri-Doom.

    Mind you I have no personal prediction on just which way the stock price will go now.

    timd209, what's your source for saying there will be no reverse split?

  • Report this Comment On September 16, 2009, at 8:50 PM, JibJabs wrote:

    Why do the people at the fool write so much about Sirius? I don't care. I don't think many people care relative to the rest of the market. I'm sick of it. I've read the articles written for the Fool from years back- they are much, much better.

  • Report this Comment On September 16, 2009, at 9:44 PM, cycle63 wrote:

    Sirius is on the rise, wether or not it hits 1.00 soon is still open. But the stock does look good and with a good third quarter earnings report you could see it.

    Let's just hope for the best!!!

  • Report this Comment On September 16, 2009, at 10:13 PM, spr0949 wrote:

    SIRIDoom really has it in for Sirius. He keeps saying "the sky is falling, the sky is falling!!" Karmazin explained it the other day. They received "THE LETTER". They have thirty days to respond and request a 6 month extension which is most often granted. After that 6 months another 6 months extension is usually requested and granted before delisting. In a years time the $1 threshold will be ancient history and the spector of a reverse stock split will have faded away.

    I am in Sirius for the long haul, as an investor and as a subscriber.

  • Report this Comment On September 17, 2009, at 4:52 AM, theidiotsidiot wrote:

    What bothers me the most is the lack of homework you folks do before discussing a subject.If you would bother to come to terms with their hardware, and not the current product, perhaps this rant you all are on would have some merit.

  • Report this Comment On September 17, 2009, at 1:44 PM, CoffeeExplosion wrote:

    Although "Sirius XM" may disappear, it is more likely the company will be absorbed or changed. The technology is too valuable for it not to be used--remember the have all these satellites running around space.

    According to the New York Times, "Service is unlikely to be interrupted, but the company might have to terminate contracts with high-priced talent like Mr. Stern or Martha Stewart. ... Sirius XM’s problems could pave the way for a takeover by EchoStar, the TV satellite company, which has bought up Sirius XM’s debt."

    ----------------------------

    Money is like muck, not good except it be spread.

    http://www.topinvestingtips.com

  • Report this Comment On September 17, 2009, at 6:28 PM, geoslv wrote:

    Oh wow, a price target of $5, even without a split, because a door opened to China. Who are these people setting targets? And never a thought to a reverse split. What kinda predictions?

  • Report this Comment On September 17, 2009, at 8:12 PM, SIRIDoom wrote:

    Sirius receives listing noncompliance notice from Nasdaq due to low share price

    On Thursday September 17, 2009, 5:14 pm EDT

    .

    NEW YORK (AP) -- Satellite radio operator Sirius XM Radio Inc. said Thursday it received notice from the Nasdaq exchange that its share price has closed below $1 for 30 consecutive days, which could cause the stock to be delisted.

    Sirius has 180 days, or until March 15, 2010, to regain compliance with the minimum bid price rule.

    The company said it plans to maintain its listing on the Nasdaq and may effect a reverse stock split to boost its share price if that would be in shareholders' best interest.

    Shares of the New York-based company closed at 69 cents on Thursday. The stock has ranged between 5 cents and $1.08 over the past 52 weeks.

  • Report this Comment On September 17, 2009, at 8:44 PM, badbaa wrote:

    Just wondering why a reverse split would be such a negative event. 5 for 1 or whatever it may be would just move the price up from current x 5 correct?

  • Report this Comment On September 17, 2009, at 9:33 PM, geoslv wrote:

    There's a lot of yakking about a reverse split usually depressing the stock, at least temporarily. It depends on the attitudes of major investors. Since SIRI's future is not dark I don't see why it should have a permanent effect. SIRIDoom views it as a short term trading play. See if it dips and then buy more. After hours is down.

    So exactly which day was the cutoff - 12th or 14th?

  • Report this Comment On September 20, 2009, at 4:56 PM, multi007 wrote:

    Only time will tell if SIRIDOOM is right or if Im right. I owned 10,000 shares of SIRI in at 51 cents/share. Its a cheap option with no expiration. That's the way I look at it.

    But I would never bet the farm on any one stock.

  • Report this Comment On September 22, 2009, at 2:03 AM, majordm wrote:

    what happened to worthlessworthlessworthless?

  • Report this Comment On September 23, 2009, at 9:40 PM, billddrummer wrote:

    There's a lot of yakking about SIRI anyway, and it recalls 'much sound and fury signifying nothing.'

    I'm not a SIRI investor, nor will I become one.

  • Report this Comment On October 05, 2009, at 9:59 PM, streetflame wrote:

    It seems like RAD and SIRI have passed the point of greatest bankruptcy danger. On the other hand AMR and UAUA just keep getting worse year after year. I put my money on them to go bankrupt within a few years.

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12/1/2009 4:01 PM
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SIRI $0.64 Up +0.01 +2.27%
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