Boeing's Brilliant and Timeless Bluff

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Riddle me this, investor: What has two wings, carries 85 tons in its belly, and always seems about to crash from the load -- yet never does?

Answer: A Boeing (NYSE: BA) C-17 Globemaster III transport aircraft.

Boeing's neverending story
It's September again, Fools, and you know what that means. It's time to scan the skies over Capitol Hill, looking for flak targeting Boeing's C-17.

Yes, the U.S. Congress is once again balking at buying C-17s. Boeing says it needs the taxpayer to ante up for somewhere between 10 and 15 Globemasters to justify keeping the production lines running. Any less, and Boeing will begin winding down its extensive supply line. It will inform parts makers large and small, from United Technologies (NYSE: UTX) and Northrop Grumman (NYSE: NOC) to small fry Ducommun (NYSE: DCO), that their services are no longer required.

So far, it's not looking promising. At last report, the House of Representatives was looking to fund just three more planes; the Senate, 10, max. If that's the best they can do, you can expect Boeing to repeat its 2006 gambit -- arguing that once it starts losing momentum, this program will grind to a halt in 2011. If that happens, it will take nearly 10% of Boeing's annual Integrated Defense Systems revenue with it.

Be careful what you wish for
Between its long lead time and its high price tag (around $200 million), you can understand why a cash-strapped Pentagon might want fewer C-17s. Yet every time it raises the hatchet, Boeing patiently reminds the generals that, yes, you can kill our golden goose, and yes, we'll wind down the program if you want -- but make good and darn sure this is what you want. Because Lockheed Martin's (NYSE: LMT) C-5 Galaxy, the other U.S.-built aircraft capable of carrying General Dynamics' (NYSE: GD) main battle tanks in a hurry, won't last forever. And if you change your mind, it's going to cost you a good $2 billion to spool the C-17 production lines back up.

This year, Boeing has added a new threat to its arsenal: a website explaining why we need more C-17s. Putting military requirements aside, Boeing touts the nearly 700 suppliers who help build the C-17, the 30,000 people employed in building the planes, and the $8 billion the program contributes to America's economy.and

That argument didn't save Lockheed's F-22 Raptor. It didn't prevent Boeing from losing Round 1 of the KC-X Tanker dogfight. Will it fly with the C-17?

Stay tuned. Your portfolio may depend on it.

For more on this story, read:

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General Dynamics is a Motley Fool Inside Value selection. Fool contributor Rich Smith owns shares of Boeing. The Motley Fool is positively militant about disclosure.

Comments from our Foolish Readers

Help us keep this a respectfully Foolish area! This is a place for our readers to discuss, debate, and learn more about the Foolish investing topic you read about above. Help us keep it clean and safe. If you believe a comment is abusive or otherwise violates our Fool's Rules, please report it via the Report this Comment Report this Comment icon found on every comment.

  • Report this Comment On September 17, 2009, at 4:48 PM, JuliusCeasure wrote:

    You should really stop eating those suppositories!

  • Report this Comment On September 17, 2009, at 5:00 PM, praizinplace wrote:

    You gotta be kiddin me people. The C-5 is on it's last leg, can only maintain 50-55% of them "mission capable", which means that 45-50% of them are broke at any given time and you think they can keep using them?! How your name rings so true with your analysis of Boeing, absolutely FOOLISH. The C17 is ready 80+ % of the time and can land on airstrips the C5 could never dream of landing on and only the C130 is currently landing on. With going into places like Afghanistan (you know, where our soldiers are fighting for your right to print this freedom of speech crapola), it only makes sense to expand this incredible fleet of workhorse jets! If you take a real hard look, which you won't, you'll see the C17 reached over 1 MILLION flight hours YEARS before anticipated and that is causing a tremendous amount of repair on these airlifters. Get a grip and quit misleading people with your nonsense. A prudent FOOL would quit printing this junk and close this useless website down.

  • Report this Comment On September 17, 2009, at 6:12 PM, tomwittmann wrote:

    As you refer to the issue of the first (in reality 2nd) Tanker round, I must ask you:

    How long it will still take that you and the media will acknowkedge the disagreable facts ??

    Years ago, the contract with Boeing was nullified because of the illegal contacts between Boeing excutives and USAF generals.

    In the first round you menion, insiders in France spoke openly of the "big success" of Airbus's marketing guru, the US citizen TOM LEAHY, whose ntimate contact with again USAF honchos lead to a really incredible manipulation of the tender in favor of EADS, as certified by the appeal results. The same TOM LEAHY was already involved in procurement scandals regarding Emirates, China Airlines, Air Jamaica and many more

    But instead to punish, as it was done previously in Boeing case, the responsible USAF persons, these are still there trying to repeat their "success" in the 2nd round, with the support of politicians which know very well what is happening but do not care.

    Would you be interested to investigate this further?

  • Report this Comment On September 17, 2009, at 6:29 PM, JetCityKnight wrote:

    praizinplace you make a great point. The Wars in Iraq and Afghanistan have been taking an unanticipated toll on our airplanes, tanks, etc. Can you imagine the strain on the existing Air Tankers? KC-135s. Keep in mind that Boeing has built a fleet of new 767 tankers for Japan and Italy. So it really a mystery why the 767 was rejected by the USAF when the Japan and Italian Air Forces have similar fighter aircraft and missions. I suspect tomwittmann is spot on.

  • Report this Comment On September 18, 2009, at 1:28 PM, praizinplace wrote:

    And the bologna these fools are writing is nothing short of forcing most who read this garbage (and don't know the facts) to drink their koolaid! You have got to be kidding me with most of the cartoon junk they are printing here. I find now that I only read this mess just to respond to the lies! Amazing. Here we are promoting folks to research before they invest their hard earned money only to have them stumble on these yahoos blatant disregard for true research and investigative journalism (as it relates to investment that is). They just vomit out something with a sarcastic humor to it, link to their other drivel from the past and blast away at Boeing, OH and they claim to own stock in BA??? Amazing, absolutely amazing. I have warned countless people about these Beacons of the Bologna!

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