Recs

11

Wall Street's Buy List

Watch stocks you care about

The single, easiest way to keep track of all the stocks that matter...

Your own personalized stock watchlist!

It's a 100% FREE Motley Fool service...

Click Here Now

Actions speak louder than words, as the old saying goes. So why does the media focus so much attention on what Wall Street says about companies, instead of what it does with them?

Luckily for Wall Street watchers, the Internet brings us MSN Money's list of which companies the institutions are buying. True, we should be as skeptical of Wall Street's actions as we are of its words. But when the 140,000-plus lay and professional investors on Motley Fool CAPS agree with Wall Street's opinions, it just might be time for some buying.

Here's the latest edition of Wall Street's Buy List, alongside our investors' opinions of the companies involved:

Stock

Recent Price

CAPS Rating
(out of 5)

Manitowoc (NYSE: MTW  )

$9.52

*****

Omniture  (Nasdaq: OMTR  )

$21.51

****

KKR Financial  (NYSE: KFN  )

$4.38

***

Select Comfort  (Nasdaq: SCSS  )

$4.65

***

VIVUS Inc (Nasdaq: VVUS  )

$10.16

**

Companies are selected from the "Institutional Ownership Up Last Month" list published on MSN Money on the Saturday following close of trading last week. Recent price provided by Yahoo! Finance. CAPS ratings from Motley Fool CAPS.

Wall Street vs. Main Street
Wall Street traders think these stocks will go far. CAPS members agree that a few of them have potential, and like the prospects at Omniture and Manitowoc best.

And me? Personally, I don't see what all the optimism is about at Omniture. Adobe (Nasdaq: ADBE  ) has already promised to buy out the stock for $21.50. Investors have bid up Omniture beyond even that price, however, so perhaps they're looking for a rival bid to emerge. (Google, are you listening? Microsoft? Bueller? Anyone?) Maybe it'll happen, but if it were my money on the line, I'd take Adobe's bid and run with it.

Of course, Omniture still only gets four stars on CAPS. Is five-starred Manitowoc any better? Let's find out.

The bull case for Manitowoc
Mikegee52 calls Manitowoc "a long standing solid company with an excellent reputation. Like most equipment companies it has been hit hard by lack of construction. If you feel construction is due to go or are willing to hold this stock it could be a real winner." rpo143 agrees that a "[g]lobal economic recovery, emerging market demand, etc. will escalate demand for Manitowoc's products and services."

But Manitowoc's got more going for it than just hopes of a construction boom materializing. As gomtw2009 points out:

Manitowoc Company ... now has two core businesses (Foodservice & Cranes). There recent aquisition of Enodis has been an eye-opener. ... I love the Enodis acquisition, strategically speaking; Manitowoc can now outfit the full restaurant kitchen which is very compelling for single sourcing! They are very good at de-leveraging and paying down debt.

Let's hope so. Because as things stand right now, this crane's not looking all that sturdy. When Manitowoc beat out Middleby (Nasdaq: MIDD  ) to acquire Enodis last year, it put itself deep in hock to pay for its prize. Result: Manitowoc's balance sheet now brims with $2.5 billion in debt (against barely $122 million in cash.) With the firm generating a bare $9 million in free cash flow over the last 12 months, paying down the debt is going to take some real effort.

What's more, even when the recovery does arrive, Manitowoc is going to remain in hock for a good long time. Over the past five years, this company has averaged only $117 million in annual free cash flow. At that rate, it could take Manitowoc about 20 years to pay its debts -- and that's assuming Manitowoc diverts every spare penny it can earn to the purpose, and that the recovery arrives on schedule, returning Manitowoc's cash flow to its former glory.

Meanwhile, most analysts are taking a less sanguine view of Manitowoc's chances. Far from predicting a recovery, they expect to see Manitowoc's profits decline slightly over the next five years.

Foolish takeaway
To me, there's no question what to do with Manitowoc. It's too debt-laden, generates too little cash, and has such poor prospects for growth that I've absolutely no interest in owning the stock. But here's the real question: Considering that Wall Street's best and brightest see the same numbers I'm looking at, and have similarly dim hopes for the company's growth, why are they buying it?

Time to chime in
Seriously -- that's not a rhetorical question, folks. Why are the Wall Street bankers so hot to trot for Manitowoc? If you've got a clue, please share.

Best Odds in the Universe!
If you're interested in a 98.79% chance at beating the market... and a 70.84% chance at DOUBLING the market's return – Motley Fool Supernova could be just what you're looking for. And get this: We arrived at these odds from 10,000 random back-tested portfolios composed of Motley Fool Co-founder David Gardner's personal stock picks.

It's why David recently handpicked a small team of world-class portfolio managers. You see, he thinks these odds can get even better! And he'd like to prove it to you...

Simply enter your email address. And the answer to the question everybody is asking will be delivered to your inbox!

Middleby is a Motley Fool Hidden Gems pick. Google is a Rule Breakers selection. Adobe Systems and Omniture are Stock Advisor recommendations. Microsoft is an Inside Value recommendation. The Fool owns shares of Middleby.

Fool contributor Rich Smith does not own shares of any company named above. You can find him on CAPS, publicly pontificating under the handle TMFDitty, where he's currently ranked No. 614 out of more than 140,000 members. The Fool has a disclosure policy.


Comments from our Foolish Readers

Help us keep this a respectfully Foolish area! This is a place for our readers to discuss, debate, and learn more about the Foolish investing topic you read about above. Help us keep it clean and safe. If you believe a comment is abusive or otherwise violates our Fool's Rules, please report it via the Report this Comment Report this Comment icon found on every comment.

  • Report this Comment On September 28, 2009, at 1:18 PM, slidexperto wrote:

    Watch out for (EK) Eastman Kodak will rise soon to $8.00 when December 2009 comes. They pirated some of the best hi-tech people in other companies to lift up their products...good luck guys.

    Watchout for Xerox looks like it is heading to $5.00+ level when this Friday's comes, better sell your Xerox now if you have and buy later @ $5.00 .....good luck!

  • Report this Comment On September 28, 2009, at 2:31 PM, Stocklovr wrote:

    "Over the past five years, this company has averaged only $117 million in annual free cash flow."

    Perhaps Wall Street is looking at future cash flow rather than past? Past cash flow included a marine business (now gone) and doesn't account for the newly acquired business. Middleby and Illinois Tool Works both wanted Enodis but weren't willing to pay quite as much as Manitowac. Still - ITW wanted it pretty badly as I recall.

    Personally, I'm willing to give a company whose been in business since 1902 the benefit of the doubt that they know what they are doing. I could be wrong/naive/dumb, etc., only time will tell.

    Slvr

  • Report this Comment On September 28, 2009, at 8:09 PM, rofgile wrote:

    The calculation of MTW free cash flow for the future is off by a lot. You aren't factoring in the free cash flow that will be generated by all the Enodis companies - which will add likely $100 million to the annual free cash flow. The nice thing about the food service, is that it will balance the crane business for a while.

    ----

    MTW needs a little luck, an a macroeconomic improvement. A weakening dollar is beneficial to MTW, as it increases export revenue and lowers the relative burden of debt. MTW could be looked at as a nice inflation play for the US dollar...

    -Rof

  • Report this Comment On September 28, 2009, at 10:28 PM, TMFDitty wrote:

    Interesting points, Slvr and Rof. Especially Rof's mention of the devaluing dollar. That's worth further consideration -- because you're absolutely right. Inflation is a boon for debtors.

    That said... 10% unemployment is not the kind of environment in which you ordinarily see inflation appear.

    Foolish best,

    TMFDitty

  • Report this Comment On October 01, 2009, at 8:55 PM, D60510 wrote:

    MTW was a $26 stock last year at this time. Even with the potential balance sheet and cash flow issues discussed above, this stock is worth a least a double from here in the next 6 months. Long term - who knows?

Add your comment.

Compare Brokers

Fool Disclosure

DocumentId: 994244, ~/Articles/ArticleHandler.aspx, 2/13/2012 10:46:17 PM

Report This Comment

Use this area to report a comment that you believe is in violation of the community guidelines. Our team will review the entry and take any appropriate action.

Sending report...

Today's Market

updated 30 minutes ago Sponsored by:
DOW 12,874.04 72.81 0.57%
S&P 500 1,351.77 9.13 0.68%
NASD 2,931.39 27.51 0.95%

Create My Watchlist

Go to My Watchlist

You don't seem to be following any stocks yet!

Better investing starts with a watchlist. Now you can create a personalized watchlist and get immediate access to the personalized information you need to make successful investing decisions.

Data delayed up to 5 minutes

Related Tickers

2/13/2012 4:01 PM
MTW $16.71 Up +0.50 +3.08%
Manitowoc Company,… CAPS Rating: ****
OMTR.DL $0.00 Down +0.00 +0.00%
Omniture CAPS Rating: ****
SCSS $29.01 Up +0.33 +1.15%
Select Comfort Cor… CAPS Rating: **
VVUS $12.39 Up +0.05 +0.36%
VIVUS, Inc. CAPS Rating: **
ADBE $32.35 Up +0.14 +0.43%
Adobe Systems CAPS Rating: ***
KFN $9.37 Up +0.04 +0.43%
KKR Financial Hold… CAPS Rating: ***
MIDD $96.57 Up +1.27 +1.33%
The Middleby Corp CAPS Rating: ***

Advertisement