2-Star Stocks Poised to Plunge: Starbucks?

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Based on the aggregated intelligence of 140,000-plus investors participating in Motley Fool CAPS, the Fool's free investing community, specialty coffee giant Starbucks (Nasdaq: SBUX) has received a distressing two-star ranking.

With that in mind, let's take a closer look at Starbucks' business and see what CAPS investors are saying about the stock right now.

Starbucks facts

Headquarters (Founded)

Seattle, Wash. (1985)

Market Cap

$14.79 billion

Industry

Restaurants

Trailing-12-Month Revenue

$9.87 billion

Management

Founder/CEO Howard Schultz

CFO Troy Alstead

Revenue and Net Income Growth (Over Past Year)

(4.3%) and (47.5%)

Cash / Debt

$336.7 million / $549.8 million

Price-to-Earnings (SBUX and S&P 500)

60.4 and 18.4

Competitors

McDonald's (NYSE: MCD)

Tim Hortons (NYSE: THI)

CAPS Members Bearish on SBUX Also Bearish on

Ford (NYSE: F)

Citigroup (NYSE: C)

Google (Nasdaq: GOOG)

CAPS Members Bullish on SBUX Also Bullish on

Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL)

Sources: Capital IQ (a division of Standard & Poor's) and Motley Fool CAPS.

On CAPS, 23.5% of the 7,375 members who have rated Starbucks believe the stock will underperform the S&P 500 going forward. These bears include BearTill2012 and All-Star JakilaTheHunII, who is ranked in the top 15% of our community.

Just last month, BearTill2012 persuaded Fools to perk up to the macro perspective: "Unemployment is climbing faster than the government will admit, and consumer credit is contracting. Neither of these conditions bodes well for a premium coffee house like Starbucks."

In an earlier pitch, JakilaTheHunII also taps the stock as increasingly untrendy. Here's an excerpt:

I can't help but to think that Starbucks has some rough treading ahead. They've reached the limits of expansion, and now, they have to deal with K-cups, too; not to mention the fact that fast food industry powerhouse McDonald's is trying to mimic the [Starbucks] formula. ...

The main reason people continue to buy in is based on the "good company" premise. Honestly, I've never been convinced that [Starbucks] was ever anything more than a(n admittedly long-lasting) trend. They aren't going away, but I can't see them growing like crazy in the future.

All in all, the trends are working against [Starbucks], we're in a difficult consumer environment, they market expensive products, and the stock looks rather pricey.

What do you think about Starbucks, or any other stock for that matter? Make your voice heard on Motley Fool CAPS today. The CAPS community is waiting to hear your opinions. CAPS is 100% free, so get started!

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Fool contributor Brian Pacampara owns no position in any of the companies mentioned. Starbucks and Apple are Motley Fool Stock Advisor picks, Tim Hortons is a Global Gains choice, and Google is a recommendation of Rule Breakers. The Fool owns shares of Starbucks. The Fool's disclosure policy always gets a perfect score.

Comments from our Foolish Readers

Help us keep this a respectfully Foolish area! This is a place for our readers to discuss, debate, and learn more about the Foolish investing topic you read about above. Help us keep it clean and safe. If you believe a comment is abusive or otherwise violates our Fool's Rules, please report it via the Report this Comment Report this Comment icon found on every comment.

  • Report this Comment On October 06, 2009, at 2:37 PM, artistx wrote:

    Same logic has been suggested (fad/trend, expensive/luxury, etc.) for the downfall of Starbucks. These people don't understand the power of the brand and brand promise. It's not that people want to save 50¢, it's that they want that extra money to make a difference both in their experience and what that money is used for. Non of Starbucks competitors can say they've done as much for their employees and coffee growers success. When is the last time McDonald's paid their employees (of coffee growers) a living wage?

    Regarding CAPS, Sbux was "downgraded" by CAPS a year ago from 3 to 2 stars. Since then the stock has gone up 70%, so much for CAPS as any sort of barometer. I bet most CAPS folks don't have real money in anything they recommend.

  • Report this Comment On October 06, 2009, at 7:24 PM, pumba2003 wrote:

    So Starbucks CAPS rating is based on the "expert" opinions of a mere 23%!!! Unbelieveable--so a 5 star requires what 150% to think the stock will overperform? VIA is going to help the company more overseas than domestically, but it will be a boost regardless.

    I agree wholeheartedly with artistx's comment--too many people underestimate the importance of Starbucks impact on farmers, baristas and even mom and pop coffee shops.

    Without the big bad Starbucks to educate the consumer on premium coffee, the mom's and pop's would likely have a much harder row to hoe. Unlike Wal-Mart, Starbucks does not engage in predatory pricing as a means to eliminate competition. They're no saints, but as a corporation, it does strive to be better.

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