4-Star Stocks Poised to Pop: Alcoa

• Report this Comment On October 12, 2009, at 3:15 PM, lomaxlovescrocs wrote:

  Alcoa is a great aluminium company that is constantly pinned down by other aluminium producing nations that also happens to produce a lot of oil. Much of the world aluminium production comes from oil producing nations that can afford to subsidize aluminium production regardlessly at loss just for the sake of creating high paying jobs for their national people. This is nothing new. Much of the commodities everywhere is produced that way by all nations wtihout regards to proiftability just for the sake of creating jobs. If you do not make money in America, you are usually kicked out of the stock market or put to a slow death like General Motors. But for other nations, they can afford to keep money losing operations going indefinitely. Russia , for instance, flooded the market with aluminium that they dont know what to do after the Iron Curtain was torn down in 1990. They do not just shut down the aluminium operations that were mostly used for military uses. Recently, tiny OPEC nations like UAE or Bahrain is building vast aluminium smelter complexes that can produce several millions tons of aluminium simply because of recent high oil prices. Now, they are delaying the completion because of fallen oil prices... If you want to play the aluminium stocks, I advise you to also own oil stocks as proxy... If oil prices goes up again, you can count on depressed aluminium prices because those bantam oil nations will rush out another flood of aluminium at losses. They dont care ... So why should you care about low oil prices , too? Own both oil and aluminium stocks, they mix well and dont separate easily..

• Report this Comment On October 12, 2009, at 3:26 PM, lomaxlovescrocs wrote:

  The only real winner in aluminium business is the industrial users themselves.. They are fixing to keep aluminium prices down most of the times. There will always be a rare pent up demand in aluminium , but you will never know when it will happen next time... Aluminium is very expensive to produce and it has numerous benefits that is not going out of fashion anytimne in the long term. Usage of aluminium is creeping upwardly in automobile manufacturing. It grows from 100 pounds to 350 pounds per vehicle on average. Aluminium engines and wheels are already widespread in use. What remains to be seen is whether aluminium will be used more in body fender parts, because there is reports of difficulties with stamping and bending aluminium sheet for that purpose. Aluminium is considered superior to steel in crash tests because of its "accordion" like crash patterns. 50 pounds of aluminium is as strong as 100 pounds of steel in most applications, because aluminium is three times as large as steel per pound and gives greater flexibility in fabrication capabilities. Pittsburgh Steelers is a oxymoron since ALCOA is headquartered there.. ALCOA workers belong to Steelworkers Union, which is another peculiarity... as if steel people is holding aluminium on a leash telling where it can go or cant go..

• Report this Comment On October 12, 2009, at 3:34 PM, lomaxlovescrocs wrote:

  It is a fact that over one billion tons of steel/iron is produced while only 30 million tons of aluminium is produced in the world annually. This is a ratio of over 30 to one. This is enough to tell you that aluminium is greatly underutilitized. I am not fazed by the present oversupply of aluminium as I am by the underutilization of aluminium. We avoid alumiinium for all the wrong reasons , simple as that...

• Report this Comment On October 12, 2009, at 3:39 PM, lomaxlovescrocs wrote:

  Wow, this article just came up about Tata Motors in India that bought Jaguar/Land Rover from Ford Motors. All future models will be made with 100% aluminium. Aluminium is a great metal and you will do well to invest in aluminium stocks for this decade , but dont forget to also own some oil stocks..

• Report this Comment On October 12, 2009, at 3:50 PM, lomaxlovescrocs wrote:

  Tata Motors sold off its aluminium smelters apparently because it believes that aluminium prices will stay low for the indefinite term. You see what I mean by the industrial users being interested in cheap commodities to maximize profits. There may be a new wrinkle to the whole scheme of oil and aluminium. Assuming that aluminium usage takes off in a big way in the next decade to reduce car weight and improve fuel mileage, this may put greater downward pressures on oil prices as a result of falling demand on oil in the future. The only way for any aluminium producer here in America or overseas to survive is probably to start swallowing aluminium minnows like Century or Kaiser or foreign aluminium money losers that governments get bored with ..

• Report this Comment On October 12, 2009, at 3:50 PM, lomaxlovescrocs wrote:

  Tata Motors sold off its aluminium smelters apparently because it believes that aluminium prices will stay low for the indefinite term. You see what I mean by the industrial users being interested in cheap commodities to maximize profits. There may be a new wrinkle to the whole scheme of oil and aluminium. Assuming that aluminium usage takes off in a big way in the next decade to reduce car weight and improve fuel mileage, this may put greater downward pressures on oil prices as a result of falling demand on oil in the future. The only way for any aluminium producer here in America or overseas to survive is probably to start swallowing aluminium minnows like Century or Kaiser or foreign aluminium money losers that governments get bored with ..

• Report this Comment On October 12, 2009, at 3:59 PM, lomaxlovescrocs wrote:

  I once owned AMAX back in the early eighties because I believed that molybdenum , the chief product of AMAX would be widely sought after because of its highly coveted alloying properties with steel products to enhance quality and longevities. But the ugly story followed as many copper producing companies and nations like Chile also happen to produce molybdenum as byproducts in copper mines. They did not care about dumping molybdenum on the market at insanely cheap prices of $2-3 a pound for years. They REALLY DONT CARE, PERIOD!! General Electric was the beneficial industrial user of molybdenum as its divisions also boomed worldwide. General Electric profititeered at AMAX shareholders' great expenses. AMAX was forced to merge with Cyprus Minerals which also happens to be a huge copper/molybdenum byproduct producer itself. Molybdenum remained stuck at low prices for even more years to come until Phelps Dodge swallowed Cyprus AMAX Minerals in 1999. Molybdenum finally took off to $30 a pound from $3 a pound in a span of couple years and remains at high prices ever since. Phelps Dodge was then swallowed by Freeport McMoran. You see what it takes to keep a damn commodity price high... ... that is to keep swallowing smaller minnows until you control a respectable market share in the commodity. Industrial users is not going to pay plum prices for the damn commodity that you happen to hold stocks in the damn commodity producers like ALCOA.. It will be either that ALCOA keep swallowing or be swallowed up by another bigger fish. My bet is that ALCOA will stay the big fish of the world, hey Warren Buffet you just go home, please..

• Report this Comment On October 12, 2009, at 4:04 PM, lomaxlovescrocs wrote:

  For your note,, Phelps Dodge was sold to Freeport McMoran for $26 billion just a few years after it bought Cyprus AMAX Minerals for $2 billion and Phelps Dodge was worth only 8 billion then. Commodities can be good to you only in the nick of time. Commodities tend to play dead to industrial users until one day,BOOM! You are rich! Industrial users weep....

• Report this Comment On October 12, 2009, at 4:05 PM, lomaxlovescrocs wrote:

  See the parallel... General Electric had not been performing well in stock price in the last few years.. Why?? HOOOOLYYY MOOLLYY!!

• Report this Comment On October 12, 2009, at 4:07 PM, lomaxlovescrocs wrote:

  High commodity prices especialy in metals will promote high rate recyclablity.. If not, we tend to throw them away... Look at how much aluminium foil you throw away everyday.. Oohhhhh! Oh boy, we cannot live without aluminium foil, can we, DUH??????????????

• Report this Comment On October 12, 2009, at 4:12 PM, lomaxlovescrocs wrote:

  Take copper... We used to discard old copper pipes and old electrical cords from broken lamps and applicanes.. Do we still do that with $4 copper today?? You see what I am saying, hmmmmmmmmmmmm? Why is recycling so important?? To save Mother Earth?? Yes but not only that... we will be better able to raise living standards for billions more especially in the poverished nations in Africa and Southeastern Asia by making more metal avalable through recycling programs.. Recycling is not all about saving environment which is good, but we simply cannot ignore billions of people who envy our high standards of living based on copper and well, you know, aluminium , too.. You can either recycle those metals as a give away to your local garbage company or hoard them for better cash prices later on. It is your choice..

• Report this Comment On October 12, 2009, at 4:14 PM, lomaxlovescrocs wrote:

  Do you know that you can earn about $4 a pound recycling foam egg cartons and foam meat trays you routinely discard or recycle in your green trash cans ...????? Anything with number 6 in the recycle symbol will fetch you that much!! oh boy!

• Report this Comment On October 12, 2009, at 4:17 PM, lomaxlovescrocs wrote:

  Foam cartons with "6" recycling stamped on it fetches you $4 while aluminium fetch you only $1 or less . This is wacky!! What I dont understand is those nations still producing aluminium at great losses... I just dont understand besides cynicism toward someone like me as an ALCOA shareholder , perhaps..

• Report this Comment On October 13, 2009, at 11:12 PM, soober wrote:

  do I by aa or cenx at this level

• Report this Comment On October 14, 2009, at 6:00 PM, multi007 wrote:

  Ive been touting AA on this site since 3/09. I have 38% of my portfolio in it. The other 4 stocks I have are BAC, MGM, HIG and DRYS.

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