Dow 10,000: What's Next?

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Grab your "Dow 10,000" caps, Fools. The five-figure index is back.

You've probably heard by now: The Dow breached the 10K mark today, on the back of stellar earnings from Intel (Nasdaq: INTC  ) and JPMorgan Chase (NYSE: JPM  ) . Traders screamed. Confetti fell. CNBC anchors giggled. I may have heard celebratory gunfire. While they may be materially irrelevant, these psychological barriers get investors riled up.

This milestone is exciting, of course. But who can forget watching the Dow fall below 10,000 almost exactly a year ago? The words "shock and awe" come to mind. What was then the sign of the world coming apart at the seams is today a sign that recovery has arrived.

As an example, I found this headline from last October:

Panicked global markets reel, Wall Street plunges below 10,000 pts

And then this one from this morning:

Dow 10000: Relief, Recovery on Trader Minds

The same level, one year apart, with polar opposite reactions. If that's not a sign of the powers of investor psychology, I don't know what is. 

More interestingly, it's been 10 years since the Dow first crossed the 10,000 mark. Curious about what the financial world looked like back then, I dug up a few broad metrics for comparison:





$9.4 trillion

$14.4 trillion*




Fed Funds Rate



U.S. Population

274 million

305 million

S&P 500 Earnings



Consumer Confidence



*For 2008.

Of course, plenty will point to Dow 10,000 as a surefire sign that markets are dangerously zooming ahead out of control -- a more than 50% gain since March!

This may be true, but it's being slightly unfair to the calendar. Year to date, the Dow is up about 15%. Seeing how far parts of the economy have come since January -- particularly vast improvements in credit markets -- that seems positively reasonable. The March lows were purely a function of fears that Citigroup (NYSE: C  ) and Bank of America (NYSE: BAC  ) were about to implode and be nationalized. When that possibility blew over, it took with it huge risks to the economy, making colossal gains a sure thing.

At any rate, we want to know what you think. With the Dow at 10,000, where do we go from here? Take a moment to weigh in in the Fool poll below, and share your thoughts in the comment section, if you feel so inclined.

Fool contributor Morgan Housel doesn't own shares in any of the companies mentioned in this article. Intel is a Motley Fool Inside Value selection. The Fool owns shares of Intel, and has a disclosure policy.

Read/Post Comments (48) | Recommend This Article (58)

Comments from our Foolish Readers

Help us keep this a respectfully Foolish area! This is a place for our readers to discuss, debate, and learn more about the Foolish investing topic you read about above. Help us keep it clean and safe. If you believe a comment is abusive or otherwise violates our Fool's Rules, please report it via the Report this Comment Report this Comment icon found on every comment.

  • Report this Comment On October 14, 2009, at 4:17 PM, AxIt wrote:

    This will make headlines everywere in the media, Mikey Mouse magazine included. May be that we'll see "the crowd" starting to jump in and keep the trend going.

  • Report this Comment On October 14, 2009, at 4:17 PM, AxIt wrote:

    This will make headlines everywere in the media, Mikey Mouse magazine included. May be that we'll see "the crowd" starting to jump in and keep the trend going.

  • Report this Comment On October 14, 2009, at 4:20 PM, dare1182 wrote:

    DOW 11000 is next : )

  • Report this Comment On October 14, 2009, at 4:24 PM, barbarosssa25 wrote:

    look out below

  • Report this Comment On October 14, 2009, at 4:56 PM, paultaut wrote:

    10,400 and maybe a rest with pullback to mid 9,000 before the move to 11,700 or so.

  • Report this Comment On October 14, 2009, at 4:59 PM, DealUncleDotNet wrote:

    Will come back to 9,500 before holiday season and shoots off to 11,000

    -- Don

  • Report this Comment On October 14, 2009, at 5:05 PM, MLUR wrote:

    I can't help but believe the market will continue to ratchet higher until it is clearly home free from the past turbulence. When most sectors have shown their break with the recessionary obstacles and it is back to business as usual the profit taking will likely be substantial. The best sign of this will be the employment figures turning markedly for the better, joined by credit easing, home sales and pricing improvement, and a graet environment for new "Ponzi" schemes.

  • Report this Comment On October 14, 2009, at 5:15 PM, BobHaury wrote:

    I don't particularly care where the Dow is, as long as the individual stocks that I purchased at rock bottom keep ASH, BYDDF, GE, FITB, SMG, UTEK, WFMI

  • Report this Comment On October 14, 2009, at 5:17 PM, thisislabor wrote:

    I don't get it. Why was their confetti?

    This market thing is work, isn't?

    The recovery is a jobless recovery, this may be good for Mr. Market's emotions, but this is bad for Mr. Main Street's pay check.

  • Report this Comment On October 14, 2009, at 5:21 PM, edvale wrote:

    5000 by 2014, collapse to start when the bond market fails.

  • Report this Comment On October 14, 2009, at 5:25 PM, grantrobertb wrote:

    Of course psychology is big here. There is still plenty of negative news out there, and anything could slow or reverse the momentum. I think a big factor is going to be what happens in D.C. Investors (in my opinion) want to see sound policy addressing some of the critical problems we face in the economy (especially entitlements). I think if our leaders can start to address the fundamental issues we face, then the positive karma will continue. I think a sound healthcare bill will add to the momentum.

  • Report this Comment On October 14, 2009, at 6:17 PM, abientot2 wrote:

    The recovery is on target, the predicted steps are being taken one by one, confusion is all around me, but in the end the steps will be taken. We are on target to continue a recovery in the economy and new highs in the stock market. The trick will be determine when to start hoarding cash for the next bottom which could take years and years. It always comes and the question is when. Most certainly it is not now. People are just gunshy because of that last meltdown (er dip).

    I predict the dip will be 3 years from now.

  • Report this Comment On October 14, 2009, at 6:28 PM, ontheemmis wrote:

    The period between Thanksgiving and Christmas will make or brake the market.Until then it will move based on the news and earnings reports. Right now I feel that the market is in fair value range based on earnings and global events.

  • Report this Comment On October 14, 2009, at 6:31 PM, DEALWITHTHEDAY wrote:

    Deal With The Day.

    Today I celebrate. Tomorrow I go back to work.

    I see banks recovering and technology recovering.

    I even see technology replacing some of the jobs that were lost.

    I am always looking for the 5% pull back as I can use pull backs to make money.

    If a Hydrogen bomb drops tomorrow you won't need stocks, bonds, dollars, or even gold. This will melt the whole world system including the gold.

    What I am trying to understand are commodities. I am always hearing about the 10 or 20 percent out of jobs. It appears that some parts of the market can make money under these conditions. But commodities are used by the 10 or 20 percent. Realizing that Business uses quit a bit of these why should oil and others be up when they will not return to work for a year. I guess it is the government paying for the gas. Any comments on commondities would be appreciated.

  • Report this Comment On October 14, 2009, at 6:40 PM, switchingtoguns wrote:

    Celebrate this for what it is. An irrational value for a irrational market. Gonna stay in, as I have since14000 to 6500 to now 10000, and hope that as axit says the "crowd" joins in and further spurs the market.

  • Report this Comment On October 14, 2009, at 7:11 PM, peters46 wrote:

    The crowd jumping in? Probably. Suits me fine.

    eekthecat - your name fits. What is wrong with wanting to be around when? He isn't hoping for the bad, he just wants to be around when it happens. I hope I am around when the pre-2012-doomsday sell-off occurs. The way the experts and media hyped up y2k, you can bet some of them will go all out for 2012. I expect many followers of that type to quit their jobs, sell almost everything they have in order to have the time and money to enjoy their last few months to the fullest extent possible.You don't think so - look at Jonestown.

  • Report this Comment On October 14, 2009, at 7:48 PM, bernbern0 wrote:

    I hope The Motley Fool will banish VEttariPEPC from these forums. Shameful comment!

  • Report this Comment On October 14, 2009, at 7:52 PM, Macpherson02 wrote:

    I'm more concerned with the valuation of my own stocks. Watching small percentage increases of the Dow is silly.

  • Report this Comment On October 14, 2009, at 7:59 PM, yhooo wrote:

    tomorrow,will have a bit profit taking and will jump abit higher than today's high,then hang around 10000,keep up and down on Friday,little change because of the option expired,after then will be the same as the movie (THE DAY AFTER TOMORROW)............@#$%&^*+@#$ boom.......the bomb expold,DOW will stright down 1000 point to 9000 ,then back up 200 to 300 point before the end of the year,and end the same as it was start the first day of this year 9000,then the first month of next year down 500 to 8500 then who knows ,may be god knows,so I think we should short everything or at lease sell everything then wait ,but that's my personal opinion may be I'm wrong!

  • Report this Comment On October 14, 2009, at 8:21 PM, thisislabor wrote:

    I like Deal With The Day's comment the best.

    Today I celebrate, Tomorrow I go back to work.

    Yep, pretty much.

    I guess I would feel it more if DOW 10,000 was like a personal goal of mine or something? I just don't care.

    You know?

  • Report this Comment On October 14, 2009, at 8:34 PM, jc09058 wrote:

    Quite a few people have written articles about how much the market has shot up. I have to question that statement based on the number of companies marginally and indirectly affected by the banking crisis.

    Many of these companies had their share prices slashed and slashed again simply because of the large number of people panicking and/or forced to sell off to cover calls. If that hadn't happen most of those companies would not have been affected as they had been.

    The market has gone up a lot, not to irrational exuberance but because share prices are returning to their nominal levels for those companies not a part of the banking crisis.

    Some other companies have shot up due to commodity prices (i.e. gold) and concern about inflation. Some other companies had shot up due to irrational exuberance and/or being over sold by brokers, ads or new/inexperienced investors just not knowing what they are doing.

    But most of the current talk is irrational fear about things are too good, things are too bad and rumor leads to trouble as a form of wish fulfillment. Stick to facts about individual companies, know the companies you trade in, and don't listen to the lemmings as they race off a cliff because of rumor.

  • Report this Comment On October 14, 2009, at 8:42 PM, xetn wrote:

    My concerns are:

    Predicted 1000 more bank failures;

    The collapse of the commercial real estate market;

    An extension of the mortgage market collapse (2010).

    Jobs: If we use the original metrics to gauge the unemployment rate, it is over 20%.

    The collapse of the dollar as China, Russia and others move away from the dollar.

    Massive growth in US debt with no end in sight.

  • Report this Comment On October 14, 2009, at 9:02 PM, IN2ITION wrote:



  • Report this Comment On October 14, 2009, at 9:11 PM, enuffofthis wrote:

    Would like to have a crystal ball. Maybe then I would know when to sell before the bottom drops out AGAIN. It will happen.

  • Report this Comment On October 14, 2009, at 9:35 PM, Boomerchef wrote:

    The market is not reading the real temperature of the nation's financial health. It's "irrational exuberance".

  • Report this Comment On October 14, 2009, at 10:14 PM, thisislabor wrote:

    ok, so jc.

    what about the down jones industrial average then?

    and while were on it, in2uit has an intuitive point, but my questions is: is it correct?

  • Report this Comment On October 14, 2009, at 10:14 PM, DaytonFlyers wrote:

    DOW 16,000, lol

  • Report this Comment On October 14, 2009, at 10:35 PM, booyahh wrote:

    after 10 is 11.

    so 11k.

    the market will ultimately reach its previous high of 14k, break through it, and then crash like crazy again.

    but we have a few years of good times before another crash.

  • Report this Comment On October 14, 2009, at 10:48 PM, NoMoeMoney wrote:

    The market crashed because the consumer was over extended. Now the Government is over extended. 10,000,11,000,12,000 what will it matter when a major portion of the population are unemployed, out of benefits and no longer able to feed their families? Better invest in companies that supply the riot police.

    The top has been reached when the last holdout believes its time to come back into the market, then it will happen again.

  • Report this Comment On October 14, 2009, at 10:58 PM, justputt2 wrote:

    I regularly read the MF and watch CNBC and I am becoming thoroughly convinced that BOTH of these organizations have completely lost touch with the REAL WORLD of billions of people trying to make an honest living, and making the world a little better.

    Wall Street has resumed it's greed with a vengence. Hedge Funds have swooped in and are driving the markets, totally unregulated. Greed is rampant again in Wall Street, to the expense of the rest of the population of the Western world. It is sickening!!!!!

  • Report this Comment On October 15, 2009, at 1:19 AM, rmac24 wrote:

    REPENT!!!! the end is nearer than you think!

  • Report this Comment On October 15, 2009, at 1:49 AM, DEALWITHTHEDAY wrote:

    Well we have done well today. We have went from Dow 100 to Dow 16,000. We have destroyed the world, colapsed the financial system, bankrupted the world, made everyone that owns stock greedy, made the dow a commodity like gold and oil (they all are over inflated).

    We are good and the market still is over 10,000. We must have done something wrong.

  • Report this Comment On October 15, 2009, at 1:57 AM, wenger2k wrote:

    at least among folks I talk to most are hoping for a pullback so they can get their money in at a better level. As long as this is true I don't see why we'll see more than 3 to 5% pullbacks. In order to see any sizable pullback, I believe there will have to be clear evidence that the reflation trade has overshot the new economy. The first part of the earnings season is indicating that the top line is starting to grow again which indicates to me that we're not quite yet at that mythical fair value level. And of course as we see clearer evidence that revenue side of balance sheets are recovering the market will further expand multiples again indicating to me that the overall direction continues to be up.

    The people calling for a pullback provide no basis for their argument other than a very chicken little sounding "we've come a really long way" which really isn't an argument at all. They provide no evidence that the current price levels are incorrect so I'll continue to ignore them until they can provide reason instead of just baseless fear.

  • Report this Comment On October 15, 2009, at 2:00 AM, PsycheDaddy wrote:

    Dow 10,000's that great everything is good.

    Employment is 9.8% and growing.

    Oil is $75.00 and rising.

    Gold is $1,060 and going up.

    Revenues are down for companies.

    Fed Rate almost 0%

    No reported inflation but all indicatons there has to be.

    Americans are saving more w/ less spending.

    $3.6T on sidelines

    Mortgage rates are 5% but hardly anybody buying homes.

    Housing slower that past 30 years and prices keep droping.

    More foreclosures coming.

    and it goes on.

    Obama learned in for 30 days that he had to talk up the economy. When taking office, first saying things bad about economy and the markets dove. Then saying good things and it rose. Then he learn to get GE and other media owner's co-operation, banks and wall street cooperation to talk up the markets. It got this done while bailing out banks, wall street firms and then providing more money through stimulus package. PPT helped futures every morning.

    The dollar is falling in value which they want to keep some kind of business activity going. Stocks are cheaper for foriegners. Buying power here is great.

    Foreign money coming into markets make it great to keep a rally for the wall street boys and companies going. The companies do not want their stocks to tank, so do you think they will put on a good show talking up the economy.

    People are watching on the sidelines with their $3.6T and watching the "dog and pony show". All stock traders want you to buy into this and let them make some money along with everyone one else in influencial positions.

    There is not a good economy here and the dollar is tanking, it may have to be devalued. The only tool the Fed hasn't tried yet. It won't happen for 3 or 4 years so you got time. They did it during the depression and they'll do it again. Make a lot of people mad but then business will come back. Long slow process. Cap and Trade, Healthcare will make it worst but that will also take a few years.

    Stock market could crash again but the answer will come after next quarter. The administration could pull it off, if they get some jobs started. But when so much going on outside the US, a crisis could make the pullback come, too. Trader's might as well enjoy the next few months, the advertising is working. But China, Japan, Russia and others could pull the plug on us if they want. Happy sailing.

    I would say 20% stock, 20% foreign currency CDs,

    20% gold and silver, 20% real estate , 20% cash.

  • Report this Comment On October 15, 2009, at 7:21 AM, thisislabor wrote:

    You know with 3.6T sitting on the sidelines, you know inflation aint going to happen - too many people will wine when they hear about all the stimulus monies or other things the Fed wants to pull out of it's rabbit hat. So I don't understand why gold is so high, but that's another subject - it is good that people have alot of gold, offsets and hedges against that worst case scenario of inflation (oooh the fear!). It'll keep inflation low, give people a chance to use the cash to pay off debts or buy investments that they KNOW are an absolute steal.

    Administration wont be able to get any jobs started. People of today's generation will have to start themselves, and to that end being an entrepreneur is frieking hard. People need to put a little encouragement into the system on a daily basis.

    Fed needs to keep it's hands off of things. Things will continue to recover with time, a little up a little down.

    Markets go up, markets go down, money abounds.

    Just labor to find a good deal and you'll find em.

  • Report this Comment On October 15, 2009, at 9:23 AM, grntree wrote:

    30 Companies are the U.S? Get Real!

  • Report this Comment On October 15, 2009, at 11:10 AM, dymty wrote:

    All of PsycheDaddy's stat's are the reality facing the market and the economy, but the market will continue to churn regardless (at least for now).

    Then one day, when the reality of top line death sinks in and more cannot be squeezed from the bottom, chaos will ensue.

    In the meantime, enjoy your profits while you can. They'll only be around for a few more quarters.

  • Report this Comment On October 15, 2009, at 2:14 PM, wenger2k wrote:

    Are you guys actually reading the earnings reports? Revenues' ARE recovering. Why does everyone continue to say that revenues aren't recovering its just not supported by facts. And I'm not just about talking about financials. Retailers are saying that customers are cautiously returning. And another example, look at intel's earnings last week. When Intel's revenues grow its means that HP and Dell and Apple are buying more chips because either their seeing an uptick in orders or their customers are telling them that they'll be making purchases. Xilinx just reported the morning WITH QOQ REVENUE IMPROVMENTS and raised their dividend. So there is dwindling support for the chicken little arguments. I'm willing to bet that we'll see revenue improvements in Google and IBM after the bell today and that we'll see revenue improvements w/ Apple next week. We're not yet back YET to seeing Year over year revenue growth but we almost certain to see that with the late reporters this quarter and certainly next quarter as Q4 of last year was horrendous. Of course that will be you're next lame excuse... "sure, revenues are up YOY but only because year ago comps were low."... whatever

    It seems to me that there are still a lot of folks that just simply want to be pessimistic in defiance of supporting facts. GS reported 5.20 this morning... That puts 2009 earnings around 20 and forward PE is less than 10 - and folks are complaining that its too expensive - I am truly confused by this.

    I think the US is now where the UK was 200 years ago. We've basically built out our own internal economy and in order to continue to grow we have to participate and leverage in the expansion elsewhere. So our growth at this point is tied to BRICs (C, B, I and R in order IMHO), Signapore, Oz (which is itself completely driven by far east expansion). So its not about jobs and housing as much as its about growth around the world. As the recovery continues, companies will restart projects because they need them again and the hiring and employment will come back. If you ran a company would you hire folks hoping for the recover? or would you wait for clear evidence and then start the hiring? Reality is you probably wouldn't hire until you have to - but you would start hiring when you don't have enough personnel to handle demand... e.g. employment will always lag. And housing can't really recover until employment recovers so it will be the last of all.

    I believe the housing market is going to be a mess for a while. There are fundamentally too many big houses for people that can really afford them. Meaning there were clearly way too many people buying houses that they couldn't really afford over the last 5 years so now we've got an inventory problem. We're kindof damned if we do and damned if we don't. If we let the prices drop until the buyers can move in, then we further cannibalize the market or we can start the process all over again by loaning again to folks that still can't afford that big house they want.

    But again, these things will eventually recover as the economy recovers and not the other way around.

  • Report this Comment On October 16, 2009, at 9:26 AM, Formula51 wrote:

    Wow. I signed up after years of lurking just for this wenger2k.

    You focused your argument there on Tech, which was a good choice as it is one of the only places that one can even pretend to make your claims. However, lets dive into revenuse so far shall we.

    You stated, "Of course that will be you're next lame excuse... "sure, revenues are up YOY but only because year ago comps were low."... whatever"

    Hmm. Lets take a look.

    INTEL: posted net income of $1.9 billion on revenue of $9.4 billion. Revenue was up 18% from last quarter, but DOWN 7.8% from a year ago.

    IBM: revenues fell 7%.

    GOOG: revenue increased 7% year-over-year. Very nice.

    JPM: reported widening losses in its mortgatge lending and credit card businesses. Of course this was overshadowed by its investment banking.

    BAC and CITI suffered significant losses.

    GE: Perhaps the best example. Sales fell 20% to $37.8 billion, short of forecasts. Sales dropped in all of the company's segments last quarter, but cost-cutting helped keep profits up. NBC Universal's revenue fell 20% in the quarter, but profit rose 13% compared to last year. Sales from the energy infrastructure unit fell 9%, but earnings were up 11%. At the consumer and industrial division, sales fell 18% but profit rose nearly 149%.

    Besides GE Capital, only the technology infrastructure unit had falling revenue and profit last quarter. Sales at the division were down 11% and earnings fell 8%.

    JNJ: better than expected earnings on LOWER revenue.

    MOSAIC: Revenue fell 66%.

    And the list goes on and on.

    Things I am looking at:

    1. Still decreasing revenue in many/most sectors.

    2. Record foreclosures DESPITE lenders not following through on repossesions.

    3. Commercial real estate companies holding on to properties for dear life and marking them to completely unrealistic future values.

    4. Falling dollar and rising oil/gas prices DESPITE brimming inventories.

    5. Out of control national debt with talks of pilling on more by extending or even expanding stimulus programs.

    Is this what it felt like in 1929?

  • Report this Comment On October 16, 2009, at 10:22 AM, sofpan wrote:

    Dow will go Dow-n or it will be a Dow-itcher?

  • Report this Comment On October 16, 2009, at 2:29 PM, Retirefunds wrote:

    USD = Dow 10,000

    USD @ .50c = Dow 20,000

  • Report this Comment On October 16, 2009, at 5:33 PM, mikecart1 wrote:

    What's next? DOW 10,001. Duh!

  • Report this Comment On October 16, 2009, at 10:48 PM, dbooner wrote:

    Lets look at the people on the street..

    The middle class is hunkered down, with foreclosures up 25% over last year. People are trying to save , but with debt so high, miss one payment on anything and your credit card payments skyrocket, while your home dumps in value ( you can not tap the reserve line, because its been shut off), pretty soon the debt monsters are after you. So you walk away from your $1500.00-$2500.00 mortgage and credit card debt.

    Add the devaluing Dollar, and more of our personal costs go up, because of higher priced imports.

    There are millions of families in this position.

    I think that we will have a weak Christmas season,

    except for some hot spots. Earnings will be flat or down. Dow? 9000-10000 January earnings.

  • Report this Comment On October 17, 2009, at 3:14 PM, progressisslow wrote:

    I've been in the s&p 500 since 03. looking back it is just getting up to where it was in 04. That doesn't look exuberant to me. Where is the 10 percent growth we are supposed to make? We aren't even up to the norm yet!

    Progress is slow

  • Report this Comment On October 19, 2009, at 2:42 PM, ljannise wrote:

    Ppl are so easily speculative though. All it takes is some good news and they are back in the game. I think DOW 11000 will be next. We've got too much positivity going on to work with for it to be anything different.

  • Report this Comment On October 20, 2009, at 12:34 PM, kamuirei wrote:


    Feature Article March 2008 in Barrons:

    "He concedes that the latest crisis, which began last summer with the subprime-mortgage meltdown, has been "like a forest fire," spreading throughout the debt market, sometimes jumping fire walls to spring up in unforeseen areas. Yet he's now confident that the "panic lows" in the Dow, posted on Jan. 22 and 23, when it sank as low as 11,508, will hold. To him, the Bear Stearns bailout was a crescendo event."


    "Why is Finucane bullish? For one thing, he observes that "governments and central banks have a clear incentive to promote growth, so to bet on a prolonged slump is to bet against the government, markets and human nature." He also takes comfort in a host of technical factors, including liquidity. Money-market cash, for example, has soared to $3.45 trillion, versus $2.2 trillion at the market low in March 2003. And U.S. domestic equity funds have seen a record nine consecutive months of net outflows"


    Arguments sound familiar to anyone?

    On a side note, who cares about the DOW - haven't we established it as a horrible index from a bygone era?

  • Report this Comment On October 21, 2009, at 3:35 PM, Formula51 wrote:

    Yep, everything looks rosy to me (sarcasm).

    "So far, 122 companies, or nearly one-fourth of the S&P 500, have reported results. Profits are currently on track to have fallen 20.9% versus a year earlier, according to the latest from Thomson Reuters. Revenue is expected to have dropped 10.4% from a year ago.

    The Dow 30's results are expected to be weaker, Thomson said, with profits due to slide just short of 30% versus a year ago."

  • Report this Comment On November 03, 2011, at 11:27 PM, Cayenne619 wrote:









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    10-Year Bond




    30-Year Bond












    Russell 2000




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