1-Star Stocks Poised to Plunge: Macerich?
By
Brian D. Pacampara
October 28, 2009
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Based on the aggregated intelligence of 140,000-plus investors participating in Motley Fool CAPS, the Fool's free investing community, regional shopping mall REIT Macerich (NYSE: MAC) has received the dreaded one-star ranking.
With that in mind, let's take a closer look at Macerich's business and see what CAPS investors are saying about the stock right now.
Macerich facts
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Headquarters (Founded)
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Santa Monica, Calif. (1965)
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Market Cap
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$2.8 billion
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Industry
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Retail REIT
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Trailing-12-Month Revenue
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$960.9 million
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Management
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CEO Arthur Coppola (since 1993)
CFO Thomas O'Hern (since 1994)
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Return on Capital (Average, Past 3 Years)
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2.8%
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6-Month Return
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103.7%
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Cash / Debt
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$58 million / $5.96 billion
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Competitors
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Simon Property Group (NYSE: SPG)
Taubman Centers (NYSE: TCO)
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CAPS Members Bearish on MAC Also Bearish on
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Developers Diversified Realty (NYSE: DDR)
Lennar (NYSE: LEN)
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CAPS Members Bullish on MAC Also Bullish on
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Bank of America (NYSE: BAC)
Citigroup (NYSE: C)
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Sources: Capital IQ (a division of Standard & Poor's) and Motley Fool CAPS.
On CAPS, 63.3% of the 278 members who have rated Macerich believe the stock will underperform the S&P 500 going forward. These bears include All-Stars wuff3t and DarthMaul09, both of whom are ranked in the top 10% of our community.
Just four days ago, wuff3t tapped Macerich as a particularly poor way to get rich: "Commercial real estate seems to be the least promising sector I can find right now. Combine that with the dreadful numbers (check its ratios) and this company looks a poor bet for the next year (and probably longer)."
In a pitch from one day earlier, DarthMaul09 expands on some very real risks:
Commercial real estate is on shaky ground, if the recovery is real property values may hold, but more likely they won't. Just my opinion, but has everyone else forgotten the fall of 2008? History may not repeat itself exactly, but are we less in debt than we were last year? Has unemployment improved? Will taxes go down? All answers point -- NO. Revisiting old favorites. Waiting for the government to spook the market again before halloween.
What do you think about Macerich, or any other stock for that matter? Make your voice heard on Motley Fool CAPS today. The CAPS community is waiting to hear your opinions. CAPS is 100% free, so get started!
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