All things considered, you'd expect Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT ) CEO Steve Ballmer to be in a good mood these days. Reviews of Microsoft's Windows 7 operating system, which was just released, have been mostly positive, and his company's shares are near a 52-week high. And with consumer spending stabilizing and netbook sales remaining strong, this might not be such a bad holiday season for PC sales.
Nonetheless, at a meeting in South Korea today, Ballmer threw cold water on hopes for a quick recovery in corporate IT spending, arguing that, while spending levels should gradually improve, they might never make a full recovery from the current economic downturn. Instead, Ballmer argues that there will be a "new normal" of more restrained spending, with businesses focusing on maximizing efficiency.
Depressing stuff for anyone counting on a "V-shaped" recovery to propel the shares of business IT giants such as IBM (NYSE: IBM ) and Cisco Systems (Nasdaq: CSCO ) . And though I think it's premature to talk about a "new normal" in spending that might exist, say, five years from now, I have to agree with Ballmer that the next couple of years look difficult -- in large part because of some of the unique factors that have gone into this recession.
One of these factors is massive unemployment. While the U.S. unemployment rate peaked at 6.3% during the last downturn, it has soared to 9.8% in the current one, and it's just a matter of time before we cross 10%. Throw in the millions of people who aren't counted in unemployment numbers because they're believed to have stopped looking for work, and you have a huge decrease in the number of people who need to be supported by corporate IT infrastructures. That means fewer Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HPQ ) PCs to buy, fewer EMC (NYSE: EMC ) storage systems to purchase, and so on.
The other factor is the fact that the recession has been accompanied by a credit crunch. Though the credit markets might not look as bleak as they did a year ago, the situation hasn't fully returned to normal -- whether for small businesses trying to secure low-interest loans, or publicly traded companies trying to issue new rounds of debt. Less credit means less money for capital spending, as well as more penny-pinching by businesses looking to save some money in case things get worse.
Take these factors into account, and for the near-term at least, Ballmer's pessimism seems warranted. That should give pause to investors looking to harvest further gains from investments in the IT giants -- many of which, like Microsoft, are trading near 52-week highs. At the same time, keeping in mind Ballmer's point about businesses trying to maximize efficiency, it's probably worth looking at some of the growth stories in the sector whose products help bring down IT costs. VMware (NYSE: VMW ) , whose virtualization software allows businesses to more efficiently use their servers, is one such company. Riverbed Technology (Nasdaq: RVBD ) , whose networking gear brings down Internet access costs for businesses by reducing the amount of data they need to transfer, is another one.
Ballmer's words of caution may not be a sign to bail out of enterprise-focused technology names altogether. But I think they are a sign that the easy money has been made, and that investors now need to choose their targets carefully.
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