Was Dubai Predictable?

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As with any big comeuppance, I hear a lot of Dubai "duh"s from folks now.

"Of course Dubai's investment arm was setting itself up for problems as it built ski slopes in a desert, man-made palm-tree-shaped islands, and, well everything short of castles in the sky [see a video of this stuff here] ... all on top of a mountain of debt."

Just like there are a lot of "duh"s around Citigroup (NYSE: C), Bank of America (NYSE: BAC), Fannie Mae (NYSE: FNM), and the rest of Wall Street's walking wounded, you'll undoubtedly be hearing a lot of hindsight geniuses out there.

Sure some people saw it coming (perhaps you?), but for most of us, because it was off our radar, because we just assumed oil would take care of any excesses, or because we bought into the "if you build it, they will come" thesis, Dubai's debt crisis was a shock.

Here's an example. If you've been following the City Center project in Vegas -- a joint venture between MGM (NYSE: MGM) and Dubai World -- you probably assumed they legally shielded the project from parent defaults solely because of MGM's debt problems. Who knew?

Not me. Of course, I never did a deep dive on Dubai's investments.

I'm curious what potential disasters you may know about that the rest of us have missed. Here's your chance to mark down "the next one coming" and stake your claim to being a foresight genius ... specifically, what high-flying company is in for a fall?

Perhaps Amazon.com (Nasdaq: AMZN), fresh off its all-time highs? Maybe the banks, off a rally? Maybe ExxonMobil (NYSE:  XOM), because of the threat of alternative fuels? Whatever your rationale, add your prediction to the comments area below. 

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Anand Chokkavelu owns shares of Citigroup but no other stock mentioned in this article. You can follow him on Twitter. Amazon.com is a Motley Fool Stock Advisor recommendation. The Fool has a disclosure policy.

Comments from our Foolish Readers

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  • Report this Comment On December 01, 2009, at 2:41 PM, MKArch wrote:

    I don't know if it's going to be a disaster but how about China coming back to earth? Thousands of factories shut down, electricity consumption down, rail car shipments down, Yum brand SSS down but 8.4% GDP growth? BTW lending was way up as all of the other stats were falling.

  • Report this Comment On December 01, 2009, at 2:44 PM, MKArch wrote:

    I don't know if it counts as a disaster but how about the China growth story coming back to earth. 10's of thousands of factories shut down, electricity consumption down, rail car shipments down, YUM brands SSS down but 8.4% GDP? Lending was way up though. Maybe another too good to be true story?

  • Report this Comment On December 01, 2009, at 5:52 PM, Howard1ii wrote:

    This has nothing to do with how Dubai financed all of this, but the "duh" I keep having is that every time I see a video of some of these hotels/building, etc, I picture the next 9/11. We all seem to forget that Osama bin Laden left Saudi Arabia because he felt they were becoming to westernized. These huge hotels are just too big of a target to pass up.

  • Report this Comment On December 01, 2009, at 7:00 PM, pmlang37 wrote:

    How about the US Federal Government? It may take a while, but their (our) debt is piling up faster and faster!

  • Report this Comment On December 01, 2009, at 9:28 PM, mesapet wrote:

    What we are witnessing is not a recession, it is a decline of the US and the US $. The decline is the result of basic schisms within the constituency. Each problem has within itself two strongly held, completely opposite, opinions, or else a total disregard for facts. For instance, we criticize the corruption in Afghanistan, yet lobbyists provide political contributions in the US. Or CEOs receive all sorts of income all the while presiding over companies which are declining.

    When a major country , in our case THE major country, declines, the economic ripple effect is not a ripple, it is in many cases a tsunami. My advice is to keep your head above water. Leonard

  • Report this Comment On December 02, 2009, at 2:15 AM, dgmennie wrote:

    Yes, Dubai's debt crisis was predictable in the sense that you cannot create a world-class "destination" using only brick and mortar. There has to be an established culture partnered with mistique, possibly some ancient treasure or "forbidden" activity that becons professional tourists and the simply curious alike.

    What Dubai offered the world wanderer in search of enrichment was essentially nothing. Just a repressive Arab government overseeing a small stretch of desert that would be uninhabitable (forget attractive) without 24-hour air conditioning and trucked-in water. All this was clearly revealed in a segment on "60 Minutes" (CBS) several years ago.

    Someone (with billions to waste) might expect equal success after opening an "artificial" tropical spa in Greenland.

    Or perhaps not. Polar bears are no doubt much better hosts than Islamic fundamentalists and their fellow travelers.

  • Report this Comment On December 02, 2009, at 6:14 AM, Racovius wrote:

    dgmennie?

    I don't know what world you've been living in, but the people of Dubai are obivously not "islamic fundamentalists". As for the "established culture", maybe you've heard of a certain group of people called ARABS, that created NUMERALS and AL Gebra. Saudi Arabia is repressive. UAE is not. I've pulled into Dubai quiet a few times. I didn't see any Islamic fundamentalists. Are you going to say America is just a bunch of shotgun wielding redneck christian fundamentalists? No, cause it's not true. So why say what you just said?

    Get around the world some, dgmennie. It's good for you. I do it for free.

  • Report this Comment On December 02, 2009, at 8:31 PM, dgmennie wrote:

    Racovius:

    Those who invested in Dubai were no doubt expecting to create a major tourist attraction. My basic point is that such projects can never be "instant" world-class destinations (such as Paris, London, Rome, New York, Los Angeles, Cairo, Tokyo, etc. etc.).

    As for Islamic fundamentalism, the entire "moderate" Arab world is presently tainted simply by tolerating them and/or buying them off. The essential scourge has yet to be delt with effectively. My opinion may not be politically correct, but face facts.

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