Harley Skids, But Survives

• Report this Comment On December 11, 2009, at 5:07 PM, steveherb wrote:

  Had my Crusie Control Recall fixed and my Ford truck still burnt to the ground. Ford will still give you the middle finger matter how legit your complaint is.

• Report this Comment On December 11, 2009, at 5:17 PM, edhans wrote:

  Nothing is going back to the farm. The dealers are going to handle this in their shops. Looking at the front of the fuel tank on my bike where it meets the frame, this is likely a few bolts. I cannot imagine it will take more than 15 minutes per bike. I am sure HD gets a substantial discount on labor rates (or at cost) so this is a few million bucks at most. HD will make the braces themselves and that will likely cost pennies.

  Of course, if any part of the brace is visible externally, HD will sell "Screaming Eagle" braces to consumers for upgrades and turn this into a profit. :-)

• Report this Comment On December 11, 2009, at 9:35 PM, Fool wrote:

  Test

• Report this Comment On December 11, 2009, at 9:43 PM, Fool wrote:

  Another way to look at it, this brings 111k bikes to the dealership during probably the slowest time of the year. Lots of potential upsell opportunities.

  The fix takes .3 hours at the shop rate. Not a huge cost in parts/prob 10.00 real money per bike.

  With the upsells that will happen, the win for the dealership is pretty significant.

• Report this Comment On December 12, 2009, at 9:23 AM, seanrick wrote:

  Rich why dont you buy the stock

• Report this Comment On December 12, 2009, at 3:11 PM, Everydayisgood wrote:

  Looks to me like Harley is fairly valued today in the 15-18 range. Granted the company has a well established trade name and a loyal following, but this latest set-back along with a struggling economy and poor demand for hogs during the foreseeable future makes a stock price in the 20s look ridiculous.

• Report this Comment On December 12, 2009, at 3:16 PM, Everydayisgood wrote:

  Harley looks fully valued to me today at 15-18, given its restructuring problems, debt to cash ratio, and weak demand for hogs in this struggling economy. Despite its well established and respected trade name and its loyal following of aging users, this latest setback just makes a stock price in the 20s look even more ridiculous.

• Report this Comment On December 14, 2009, at 2:42 PM, Turfscape wrote:

  Fool is right that anytime you can get a bike to the dealership you have an opportunity for upsell. And having dealerships maximizing their service techs during winter months helps to float the dealership at a slower time.

  In relation to the big picture for HOG, this is a non-story. Recalls are more common (among all vehicle types) than most people realize.

  The restructuring of manufacturing operations at York is a MUCH bigger deal and will significantly impact the long-term cost structures for HOG. A recall is a hiccup in their cash flow. HOG continues to turn a profit, even in the tough economy.

  With anticipated growth in production numbers by 2011, I'm looking at a fair value $32 per share by end of summer. Beyond that, growth internationally could result in significant gains.

• Report this Comment On December 15, 2009, at 5:10 PM, rogerlig wrote:

  HOG is fairly valued at $15 to $18, maybe. Trouble is, it closed today (12/15) at $27, 50% above the fair value by this estimate. THAT'S the problem.

• Report this Comment On January 04, 2010, at 8:59 AM, Luvs2Ride wrote:

  There's alot of "if's" here....

  but had H-D not demanded all their dealers build Taj Mahals and tear down their reasonably sized shops

  but had H-D always kept model year production around the 100-125K units

  but had Jeff Bleustein NEVER been anywhere near the helm of the ship.

  They'd surely be in much better shape today than they are

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