Want to know a secret to chalking up big returns in the stock market? You don't have to focus on picking stocks that go up. Instead, concentrate on picking stocks that don't go down, and, more importantly, picking stocks that don't go down big time. This approach ties into Warren Buffett's first rule of investing: "Don't lose money." Avoiding the big losers will dramatically increase your returns, and doing so may be easier than finding the big winners.
"That's all well and good," you say, "but how do I know which companies are going to be the next Citigroup (NYSE: C ) or MBIA (NYSE: MBI ) ?"
One way is to piggyback on the picks of other smart investors, such as the All-Star investors in CAPS, The Motley Fool's interactive stock-rating database.
All-Stars have a rating of at least 80 out of 100 -- in other words, their picks are outperforming 80% of the 69,000-plus rated CAPS members. The top players have accuracy levels of better than 60% and are so good that they've even won some media attention. It pays to follow what they do.
We can easily search for the All-Stars' least favorite picks using the handy CAPS screener. For example, when you search for at least 150 All-Star "underperform" picks and for stocks rated with one out of a possible five stars, you'll get the following:
|
Company Name
|
CAPS Rating (out of 5)
|
All-Star Underperform Picks
|
|
Hovnanian Enterprises (NYSE: HOV )
|
*
|
271
|
|
Pulte Homes (NYSE: PHM )
|
*
|
349
|
|
Raser Technologies (NYSE: RZ )
|
*
|
188
|
|
Standard Pacific (NYSE: SPF )
|
*
|
156
|
|
Fannie Mae (NYSE: FNM )
|
*
|
158
|
Source: Motley Fool CAPS.
It's probably a good idea to stay away from these stocks. I'm all for being a contrarian, but do you really want to go up against 349 All-Stars and make a positive bet on Pulte? To be fair, 95 All-Stars have bullish calls on the company, but that's nearly a 4-to-1 call for underperformance.
See whether the CAPS All-Stars have put an "underperform" tag on any of your stocks by heading over to CAPS today.
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