Talk about laying your reputation on the line!
It takes serious guts to call a top in a nine-year bull market for gold, and a flair for controversy to do so while suggesting that those who think otherwise "delude themselves." That is precisely what upstart uber-economist Nouriel Roubini has done, but I predict he will find himself gobbling down a guru-sized slice of humble pie as subsequent chapters of gold's epic revaluation unfold.
Roubini gained an eager worldwide audience for his macroeconomic perspectives after correctly predicting the global financial crisis back in 2006. He continues to display a keen understanding of multiple aspects of our ongoing financial predicament -- some of which I have quoted myself. But veteran commodity expert Jim Rogers is "flabbergasted" by Roubini's declaration of a broader commodities bubble, observing that "for Mr. Roubini to talk about a bubble in commodities defies comprehension. It proves he does not understand markets."
Jim Rogers has been proving that he understands markets for decades. The Quantum Fund co-founder is an enduring fixture in the world of commodities, and investors even have access to an index that bears his name through the Market Vectors RVE Hard Assets Producers (NYSE: HAP ) ETF (which features titans like ExxonMobil (NYSE: XOM ) , Archer Daniels Midland (NYSE: ADM ) , and PotashCorp (NYSE: POT ) among its top holdings). If you're wondering which voice to heed when it comes to forecasting prices for commodities, I recommend listening to the voice of experience.
Rogers reiterated his call for at least $2,000 gold -- the price that I have been targeting publicly since 2007 -- before this cycle has run its course:
[I]t's very clear there is huge suspicion about paper money around the world. This suspicion is gathering steam. Governments are printing huge amounts of money. This has always led to higher prices. Maybe I am wrong and it's different this time. But I doubt it.
At the crossroads of countless bearish calls for gold by self-assured pundits and under-informed analysts lie the real victims of the resulting uncertainty: Fools like you. I can't help but wonder how many investors out there will now turn a blind eye to the rock-solid fundamental foundation for higher gold prices just because the venerable "Dr. Doom" has dismissed bullish gold projections as "nonsense." Before you heed Roubini's warnings, here are just a few points to consider:
- During this current pause in gold's recent breakout move, reported bullion holdings in the SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE: GLD ) ETF have recovered to near record levels at 1,134 tonnes. Investment demand continues to gain traction.
- Barrick Gold (NYSE: ABX ) points out that global mine production has declined 10% over the past decade, and that trend is forecasted to continue.
Now that we're clear on which side I'm taking in this faceoff between two prominent financial gurus, it's your turn to play favorites. Please vote in the Motley Poll and share your comments below.
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In the high-stakes arena of forecasting the broad direction of gold and commodity prices, which voice will you heed?