Get Ready for the Bounce?

"Don't catch a falling knife," as the old saw commands. (Pardon my mixing a cutlery metaphor.) The idea of buying a former superstar stock at a discount price certainly has its attractions, but you've got to make sure you catch the haft -- not the blade. That's where Motley Fool CAPS comes in.

Today, we once again stand beneath Mr. Market's silverware drawer, measuring which knives have fallen the farthest. Then we'll call on CAPS to ask which of these stocks -- if any -- Foolish investors believe are ready for a rebound. Let's meet today's list of contenders, drawn from the latest "52-Week Lows" list at WSJ.com:

Companies are selected from the "New Highs & Lows" lists published on WSJ.com on Thursday and Friday last week. 52-week high, recent price, and CAPS ratings from Motley Fool CAPS.

On bounces and felines in rigor mortis
All four of these stocks touched their lowest points in a year last week -- and judging from the ratings being handed out by CAPS members, investors aren't expecting much of a bounce from any of 'em. But in the short term, I have high hopes that one of these stocks, at least, is due for a bounce (albeit of the dead-cat variety). And I'm not alone.

The bull case for GameStop
Why do some of the brightest minds in Fooldom continue to deny that it's "game over" for GameStop? First and foremost, CAPS All-Star golfer121501 points out the obvious argument in the company's favor: "Don't see video game industry slowing at all." So long as Electronic Arts (Nasdaq: ERTS), Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT), and Activision Blizzard (Nasdaq: ATVI) keep the entertainment code flowing, and gamers continue eating it up, golfer121501 puts his faith in GameStop to outperform.

More than that, fellow All-Star hot1053 insists GameStop could be "a great value play" at this price. The company "has great cash flow and a great p/e. ... I think it's got room to run up 50%."

And as for all the bears growling out there about the threat downloadable games pose to the bricks 'n' mortar game-hawking model, All-Star investor ShoeFTW counters that "The threats of digital distribution are being blown way out of proportion -- it just is not feasible for video games anytime in the foreseeable future."

How high can a dead cat bounce?
To an extent, I agree with that assessment -- but it depends very much on how far into the future you can "foresee." You see, from one perspective at least, GameStop seems an obvious buy. The stock sells for an uber-low P/E of 7.3 despite consensus expectations that it will grow earnings nearly 12% per year over the next five years. But if you look beyond those numbers and examine what's actually happening in the gaming industry, the picture gets a bit murkier after that.

When considering any gaming investment, I make it a point to sound out my little brother, an avid gamer, for his insight into current goings-on. What he tells me is that the key to understanding GameStop's future is indeed downloadable games -- the same games that set ShoeFTW to chuckling. According to lil' bro, this is not an immediate threat because most consoles owned by gamers today boast tiny, or no, hard drives capable of storing the games at home. But this is a time-critical issue, and the threat will grow rapidly over the next few years (smaller games pushed out by independent developers post a particular threat in that they require less hard-drive space).

This assessment aligns well with other comments by our CAPS members, by the way. For example, even as hot1053 expresses short-term bullishness, this member worries aloud that "the increasing number of online purchases of games that can be download directly to a game system ... could eventually be devistating to GME," adding that when you get right down to it, GameStop is probably "not a great long term hold."

Foolish takeaway
But what about the short to medium term? While we await this supposed digital Armageddon, is there still a chance to profit from GameStop as it churns out cash at the rate of $500 million a year ... on a market cap of less than $3 billion?

I think the stock has a chance to reward investors at this price. I agree with ShoeFTW that the panic over this stock has reached unreasonable levels. Until gamers adopt the digital download model en masse, I believe there's still a place in this world for GameStop.

But that's not the point of this column. The point is to find out what you think about GameStop. So here's your chance to join the debate, and tell the world what you believe about the company's chances for the future. Click over to Motley Fool CAPS now, and sound off.

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