Is Sirius XM a Buy?

The wicked swings that catapulted Sirius XM Radio (Nasdaq: SIRI  ) above the $1 mark last month before dragging it back under earlier this month have subsided. The stock has actually traded within a reasonable range in recent days, closing between $0.89 and $0.95 a share through March's trading days.

In other words, all's quiet on the satellite-radio front -- for now.

This won't last, of course. Sirius XM has been a rollercoaster ride for years. The key for investors -- and even speculators -- is to make sure they are on the right side of the next move. Will that be up? Will that be down?

Let's explore the possibilities, starting with pegging a value on the well-worn shares.

Satellites in motion
Valuing firecracker lottery tickets aren't easy, but neophyte investors may not even have a firm handle on what Mr. Market deems that Sirius XM is currently worth.

It's easy to pull up a quote on Yahoo! Finance, see a market cap of $3.6 billion, and assume that this is what it would cost if someone wanted to swallow the company whole.

It just doesn't work that way. For starters, Liberty Capital (Nasdaq: LCAPA  ) owns a 40% preferred share stake in the company that isn't reflected in the shares outstanding -- and won't be until Sirius XM is squarely in the black. This means that there are actually roughly 6.5 billion shares to factor in the company's value, instead of the 3.9 billion common shares outstanding. This takes us up to approximately $6 billion, but the tab isn't closed yet. Sirius XM has roughly $3 billion in net debt, so its enterprise value is actually closer to $9 billion.

Determining if Sirius XM is a buy or sell at this point requires determining whether or not the company will be worth more or less than $9 billion at some point in the future.

Let's take a close look at the reasons to mark down the stock, and then the reasons to mark it up.

The overvalued argument
Satellite radio's growth has stalled during the recession. There are fewer total subscribers -- and only a handful of more self-pay accounts -- than there were a year ago, with its latest quarter's 6% uptick in revenue coming primarily from higher subscription fees.

Revenue growth isn't pegged to be exactly blazing. Analysts see revenue climbing 12% higher to $2.8 billion this year and rising 7% to nearly $3.0 billion come 2011. The pros see breakeven results this year and a profit of $0.02 a share next year.

These aren't the kind of numbers that would seem to justify a $9 billion price tag. Satellite television leaders DirecTV (NYSE: DTV  ) and DISH Network (Nasdaq: DISH  ) trade at trailing enterprise value-to-revenue multiples of 1.8 and 1.1 respectively. That's a far cry from Sirius XM's value, even if we go all the way out to 2011 to lower the multiple to 3.0. Sirius XM may be growing marginally faster than DirecTV and DISH, but the satellite television companies are very profitable. The comparisons get even uglier, naturally, if we move to earnings-based ratios.

Even some bulls may concede that a conventional valuation argument doesn't work in Sirius XM's favor. It's one of the reasons why a reverse split isn't a popular topic, since it would place a greater emphasis on valuation over speculative swings.

The undervalued argument
Buying into Sirius XM's bullish case involves faith that Sirius XM will grow its subscriber base (domestically, and perhaps even internationally), ramp up what the average listener pays, dramatically jack up it margins, and/or expand into new revenue streams.

It doesn't need to win every battle, but it has to be in much better shape on most of the fronts in the future.

Growing its subscriber base is back on track. Sirius XM expects to close out 2010 with 500,000 more subscribers than it started. More new cars are rolling into showrooms with factory-installed Sirius or XM receivers, and the company is reaching out to the used car market. We may get to a point where most of the new activations are simply listeners trading in their old auto receivers.

The international market is more open-ended, though naturally we would be talking about more satellites, burdensome licensing, or the thin moat of digital delivery. I keep thinking about Worldspace. There are whispers of Sirius XM lending a hand in its revival, but it was such a colossal failure the first time around, and dependency on mass transit in emerging markets will continue to make global subscriber growth challenging.

I am more optimistic about the chances to milk more out of existing subscribers. As receivers become more interactive the opportunities improve for better advertising practices and the ability to sell MP3 downloads through Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL  ) . There is so much potential in cyberspace, as Sirius XM's branded channels can evolve into sticky communities that easily lend themselves to high-margin monetization. The penetration rates on traffic navigation, backseat video, and "best of" content remain low.

Margins have improved substantially over the past year, though it remains to be seen if Sirius XM has room for even deeper cost-cutting in the future. It's encouraging to note that all four analysts with 2011 earnings targets out there see Sirius XM turning a profit next year.

The final bullish argument comes in the form of accretive acquisitions and profitable opportunities to diversify. In its present state, Sirius XM isn't likely to earn enough to make the most of its tax loss carryforwards. Gobbling up related companies that are profitable will help, and because of the net operating losses, Sirius XM will be able to outbid most potential buyers.

Finding what to buy won't be easy. Regulators would never dream of letting Sirius XM buy terrestrial radio operators or even Pandora. It may even be a challenge to make a play for Live Nation (NYSE: LYV  ) as a perfect fit on the music promotion and ticketing front given Sirius XM's front-heavy music stations -- or for Garmin (Nasdaq: GRMN  ) as an in-car gadgetry giant -- given the tight scrutiny that Sirius XM is operating under.

However, there are and will be plenty of small profitable acquisition targets. If the price is right, it's the ticket to broader profitability and grander share prices for Sirius XM.

So, yes, Sirius XM is a good buy at this point, as long as one has the patience and vision to see it through the long haul.

Apple is a Motley Fool Stock Advisor selection. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services, free for 30 days.

Longtime Fool contributor Rick Munarriz is a subscriber to both Sirius and XM. He does not own shares in any of the companies in this story. He is also a member of the Rule Breakers analytical team, seeking out the next great growth stock early in its defiance. The Fool has a disclosure policy.


Read/Post Comments (10) | Recommend This Article (48)

Comments from our Foolish Readers

Help us keep this a respectfully Foolish area! This is a place for our readers to discuss, debate, and learn more about the Foolish investing topic you read about above. Help us keep it clean and safe. If you believe a comment is abusive or otherwise violates our Fool's Rules, please report it via the Report this Comment Report this Comment icon found on every comment.

  • Report this Comment On March 10, 2010, at 4:17 PM, WoodyDog1400 wrote:

    Good article finally. Suprised you did not discuss the WorldSpace option however..

    Long SIRI!

  • Report this Comment On March 10, 2010, at 4:36 PM, southernbeachguy wrote:

    I think a question that needs to be asked is, "What is Sirus worth if they go Worldwide?" They already have the technology to do that. Mexico, Central American & South American can be handled with existing Satellites. There is a lot of speculation that thru DirecTV's WorldSpace Satellites, Sirus will be able to expand to Europe & Asia. The Revenue potential is 10x what it is now. Also, as the older autos in the United States fades, the newer replacements will come equiped with Sirus.

    Sirus/XM has a bright future.

  • Report this Comment On March 10, 2010, at 7:58 PM, BuffettIII wrote:

    Mr. Rick:

    Post merger costs will continue to decline. Profits will therefore continue to increase, even with revenue relatively constant. Revenue will increase modestly thanks to royalty fees.

    Eventually, and I mean soon, the earnings will justify a stock price of $1.00 to $1.50, even on a modest P/E of 15.

    Dr. Malone has already said he doesn't intend to convert his stake. He's not stupid. That kind of dillution would destroy the stock price and his investment. His net worth has effectively doubled this past year, and he was already one of the world's richest men. The dillution argument is an excuse from skeptics.

    I will say this. A side effect of the merger is it created more shares than previously existed in either company. They effectively created a 3 for 1 split with the 4.6 for 1 buyout deal of XM. Mel intends to let bygones be bygones and move forward on an "as is" basis.

    It is not yet clear what Liberty intends to do with Worldspace. The possibilities are endless. However what is clear is they intend to make Worldspace profitable. There are content issues, management issues and hardware distribution questions. Going international can be a challenge at times. Ask Wal-Mart and Coca Cola. All that said, it is difficult to imagine them NOT merging with Sirius XM at some point, considering they now effectively have the same parent company. They are not direct competitors. Their combined resources would likely result in the emergence of an even stronger entity.

    The stock price is down because hedge funds that were banking on the aforementioned merger bailed. Easy come, easy go. There's no one here but us loyal shareholders now.

    SIRI Long

    Buffett III

  • Report this Comment On March 10, 2010, at 9:43 PM, baldheadeddork wrote:

    I'm bearish on SIRI for a couple of reasons. The debt is going to be a real problem. They won't be able to afford to acquire anyone that might help them expand their market, as noted in the article. But the debt and preferred shares is going to be a poison pill to potential buyers. It's really cool to imagine Netflix buying SIRI and open up video streaming to cars, but the debt and preferred shares makes SIRI "worth" almost 3x as much as NFLX. Netflix couldn't buy SIRI if their life depended on it.

    If SIRI remains a stand-alone, sat radio company - I don't see how they make it. The main competition to SIRI isn't terrestrial radio anymore - it's a smart phone with an unlimited data plan that you can plug into your car radio and take with you everywhere. Why would someone pay for SIRI when they can stream Pandora or listen to thousands of their own songs, for free?

  • Report this Comment On March 10, 2010, at 9:58 PM, SUPERMANSTOCKS wrote:

    SIRI is in the TOILET! IT WILL REMAIN THERE!

  • Report this Comment On March 11, 2010, at 5:50 AM, plange01 wrote:

    sirius is long over due to be delisted then its on to bankruptcy...

  • Report this Comment On March 11, 2010, at 9:43 AM, BioBat wrote:

    I use Pandora a fair amount and there's a reason it's free - nobody would ever pay for it.

    Sirius is a little different - it's value doesn't really come from 5 million different music stations, it comes from having premium content in a lot of other areas - sports, talk radio, etc.

    I wouldn't throw a huge chunk of cash into it at this point but it's worth a small investment.

  • Report this Comment On March 11, 2010, at 12:01 PM, ferehire wrote:

    A side effect of the merger is it created more shares than previously existed in either company. They effectively created a 3 for 1 split with the 4.6 for 1 buyout deal of XM.

    http://gettopstocks.blogspot.com

  • Report this Comment On March 12, 2010, at 12:49 PM, DJDynamicNC wrote:

    Worth a gamble, in my opinion. They've turned the corner on profit, and although I recognize that the plural of anecdote is not data, I've heard nothing but rave reviews from Sirius users. The big monetization issue was distinguishing Sirius from free internet variants such as Pandora, and they've largely conquored that with premium content. And once somebody has a Sirius subscription, they almost never drop it. It neatly becomes a part of daily life.

    For under a buck a share, what have you got to lose? Plunk down a hundred bucks and go for a ride.

    Another factor worth considering - President Obama's "Flexible Plan" for space development (as proposed by Buzz Aldrin) is going to result in a hot private space sector over the coming decades, bringing much more competitive pricing to all things space based. That is going to yield some strong advantages for Sirius in terms of savings on maintenance and satellite replacement, when such issues inevitably arise.

    I am bullish on this, over the very long term.

  • Report this Comment On March 13, 2010, at 4:38 AM, plange01 wrote:

    sirius will be delisted and eventually closed.

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