What Chinese Housing Bubble?

By Rick Aristotle Munarriz | More Articles
March 10, 2010 | Comments (1)

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Real estate remains a hot property in China, with E-House (NYSE: EJ ) and China Real Estate Information (Nasdaq: CRIC ) posting strong quarterly results.

Let's start with E-House. The real estate agency's fourth-quarter revenue more than tripled to $117.1 million. Even on an organic basis -- before E-House combined its real estate information and consulting services with SINA's (Nasdaq: SINA ) online real estate business to create China Real Estate Info and take it public -- revenue climbed a healthy 165% over the previous year.

The gross floor area of sold properties during the quarter rose 137%, yet the value of those sales was up 154%. In other words, real estate prices continue to inch higher in China.

You already know about the 165% increase in organic revenue, so go ahead and peek on the bottom line to find non-GAAP earnings up 226% to $0.42 a share. E-House started with a big number, but made it even larger in the end.

China Real Estate Info also rocked. Revenue rose 203% to $41.3 million for the quarter, and would have still more than doubled if the company hadn't taken on SINA's online realty arm. The company's non-GAAP profit of $0.13 a share is a healthy improvement over the $0.08 a share it rang up a year ago.

Both E-House and China Real Estate Info are projecting a substantial quarter-to-quarter drop in revenue for the current quarter, but don't panic. Chinese real estate is very seasonal, and the $69 million to $71 million that E-House is targeting still represents an 89% to 92% increase over last year's showings (after backing out SINA's impact).

The market isn't giving the industry the respect it deserves. China Real Estate Info is trading for less than the $12 price it went public at back in October. It's not right. Real estate is languishing domestically, yet Web-savvy ZipRealty (Nasdaq: ZIPR ) and commercial real estate marketplace LoopNet (Nasdaq: LOOP ) are trading near their 52-week highs. Realtor.com parent Move (Nasdaq: MOVE ) is expected to post revenue and earnings declines this year, yet its stock has more than tripled since bottoming out 16 months ago.

Will the real estate bubble pop in China? It very well might, but the stocks are already discounting a pretty sudsy mess. I suggest that the improving Chinese economy -- with gradual improvement in the average Chinese citizen's earnings power -- will help soften the blow (if and when the bubble does burst).

There's a compelling foundation here. It's hard to ignore the growth.

What do you think of China's real estate opportunities? Share your thoughts in the comments box below.

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LoopNet is a Motley Fool Rule Breakers recommendation. SINA is a Stock Advisor pick. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services today, free for 30 days.

Longtime Fool contributor Rick Munarriz is not about to buy a house in China, but he is fond of the real estate plays in the country. He does not own shares in any of the companies in this story. He is also part of the Rule Breakers newsletter research team, seeking out tomorrow's ultimate growth stocks a day early. The Fool has a disclosure policy.

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Help us keep this a respectfully Foolish area! This is a place for our readers to discuss, debate, and learn more about the Foolish investing topic you read about above. Help us keep it clean and safe. If you believe a comment is abusive or otherwise violates our Fool's Rules, please report it via the Report this Comment icon found on every comment.

Report this Comment On March 10, 2010, at 3:44 PM, tkell31 wrote:

I would be curious to know how this bubble is taking place. My understanding, which may be wrong, is the per capita income in china is something like 7-8K per year. So is the "bubble" relative to their average income, just reflecting the 8-10% their wages are growing at, or do they really have people making 8K a year buying 80K houses (roughly our equivalent of people making 30K buying a 300k house and defaulting). The Chinese seem pretty disciplined (whether by choice or force is another question) so I find it hard to believe they would immediately repeat our mistake of letting people without a prayer of paying for the property "buy" it. Anyone know the real math on this bubble ie ratio of income to cost? or was China's real estate just so cheap it needs to grow at a 10-12% clip just to catch up to where it should be?

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