The GE Jury's Still Out on Recovery

Leading up to GE's earnings announcement last Friday, three bellwether companies in cyclical industries had already beaten expectations:  JPMorgan Chase (NYSE: JPM  ) in financials, Intel (Nasdaq: INTC  ) in semiconductors, and CSX (NYSE: CSX  ) in railroads. Given its broad portfolio of businesses, I was very curious to see whether General Electric's (NYSE: GE  ) results would confirm the prevailing notion of an economic recovery.

Looking for signs in the data
In the end, GE's earnings-per-share of $0.21 comfortably exceeded analysts' estimates of $0.16. However, revenue fell just shy of forecasts, at $36.6 billion versus $37 billion.  On a continuing basis, earnings declined 18% from the prior-year quarter to $2.3 billion. Of GE's three largest segments, Energy Infrastructure outperformed the entire firm at 12% earnings growth, Technology Infrastructure was level with an 18% loss, while GE Capital brought up the rear with a 41% drop. (GE is actively reducing the earnings contribution of its financial arm, so the decline is not as dramatic as it looks.)

My concern is that Energy Infrastructure and Technology Infrastructure revenue fell year over year -- one of the most difficult quarters of the Great Recession, which should have set a low hurdle for comps. In that regard, GE's results don't seem to strongly confirm a recovery.

Are GE shares a buy?
To answer that question, let's look at how the company stacks up against its peers in terms of valuation:

Company

Price/ Earnings (FY2010 est. EPS)*

Price/ Earnings (FY2011 est. EPS)*

3M (NYSE: MMM  )

16.5

14.9

Berkshire Hathaway

22.5

21.4

General Electric (NYSE: GE  )

19.1

15.7

Siemens (NYSE: SI  )

16.0

12.9

*As of April 15, 2010. Source: Capital IQ, a division of Standard & Poor's.

Based on these multiples, GE shares look fairly valued at best. Among conglomerates, I continue to prefer 3M, or GE's German competitor Siemens. As far as the broader economy goes, I do believe that the risk of a double-dip recession is receding, but my preliminary analysis of GE's results hasn't done much to sway me on that question.

Infrastructure is spawning the biggest investment opportunity this year – just not in the U.S.

Fool contributor Alex Dumortier has no beneficial interest in any of the stocks mentioned in this article. Intel and 3M are Motley Fool Inside Value picks. The Fool has created a covered strangle position on Intel. Motley Fool Options has recommended buying calls on Intel. Try any of our Foolish newsletters today, free for 30 days. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.


Read/Post Comments (0) | Recommend This Article (8)

Comments from our Foolish Readers

Help us keep this a respectfully Foolish area! This is a place for our readers to discuss, debate, and learn more about the Foolish investing topic you read about above. Help us keep it clean and safe. If you believe a comment is abusive or otherwise violates our Fool's Rules, please report it via the Report this Comment Report this Comment icon found on every comment.

Be the first one to comment on this article.

Sponsored Links

Leaked: Apple's Next Smart Device
(Warning, it may shock you)
The secret is out... experts are predicting 458 million of these types of devices will be sold per year. 1 hyper-growth company stands to rake in maximum profit - and it's NOT Apple. Show me Apple's new smart gizmo!

DocumentId: 1157243, ~/Articles/ArticleHandler.aspx, 12/18/2014 12:31:49 PM

Report This Comment

Use this area to report a comment that you believe is in violation of the community guidelines. Our team will review the entry and take any appropriate action.

Sending report...


Advertisement