A 1-in-100 Investor

The first 100 days in office sets the tone for any new president. Similarly, Motley Fool CAPS keeps an keeps an eye on members who score 100 points of market outperformance on stock picks in their first 100 days. Here we're looking at our All-Stars who made some of their best stock selections early on and seeing which ones they think will do best next.

One of our highest rated CAPS members is redebut who sports a top 99.15 member rating. Below are a few of this top member's most recent stock selections and how they were rated.

Source: Motley Fool CAPS.
*Price when call was made. Current score is how many points a member is beating (lagging) the S&P500 index from the time of the call.

Let's take a look at what other CAPS members are saying about these stocks and whether they agree with this top player's assessment.

Degree of risk
We haven't even begun to feel the effects of the disaster which struck the BP (NYSE: BP) oil rig in the Gulf of Mexico last month, and I'm not talking about the ecological impact either as the oil spill is only just beginning to lap up onto Louisiana's shores. I mean the coming regulatory backlash that's bound to follow in its wake.

While the Obama administration has suspended the issuing of new drilling permits until it can look more closely at the Deepwater Horizon explosion, it's unlikely that it'll be a permanent suspension. Deepwater oil accounts for around 10% of the world's reserves and will be an important component for non-OPEC nations. There's enough oil in U.S. waters to meet the needs of the country for a decade. More likely will be new rules requiring things like remote-controlled triggers for activating blowout preventers, devices that shut down uncontrollable wells. More oversight of the industry is probable too.

For drillers like Diamond Offshore and Atwood Oceanics, the leak is going to lead to an increase in costs for them, not least of which will probably be higher insurance premiums. Transocean (NYSE: RIG), the company that leased the Deepwater Horizon to BP, just revealed it has already spent more than $1.3 billion related to the spill, including $200 million in legal expenses and insurance costs. That figure is bound to go higher.

Many investors who voiced their support or these drillers did so prior to the Gulf tragedy. For example, just a week before the explosion, All-Star MarcD10 had pointed to the change in thinking occurring on offshore drilling in suggesting Diamond Offshore would outperform the market.

Offshore drilling is cleaner, safer and more efficient than ever before. Laws are changing and offshore drilling will be a predominant way in which we will supply our continued dependence on oil. Diamond Offshore is one of the biggest in that industry, with some deepest drill rigs, who will absolutely benefit from changes in legislation on offshore drilling. Plus I challenge you to find another growth company with a history of paying its share holders BIG special dividends.

While the disaster does change the dynamic somewhat, longer term I think MarcD10 is right. ExxonMobil (NYSE: XOM) was hurt by the Valdez spill, but went on to eventually post record profits. As the oil companies continue to search for new reserves, they'll need the services Diamond Onshore and Atwood Oceanics provide. Investors will just need the right time frame when considering their investments.

Laying the foundation
Primarily a palladium producer, North American Palladium has seen its fortunes tied to the auto industry, which uses the precious metal for catalytic converters. But it looks like gold might become a bigger part of its future. A year ago it acquired the Sleeping Giant gold mine in Quebec and just a few months later poured its first gold bars. It started 2010 by achieving commercial production there and expects to realize 50,000 ounces annually once steady-state production is achieved.

Then last month NAP announced it was acquiring a gold project from Agnico-Eagle Mines (NYSE: AEM) that's estimated to hold 288,000 contained ounces of gold. Looks like it chose a good time to go for the gold. The market freaked out yesterday and gold shot above $1,200 an ounce. Whether it was a program trading, trading glitch, or operator error that caused the Dow to cough up a 1,000-point drop at one point, it highlights just how jittery the market is. The recovery everyone's been talking about is a lot more fragile and ephemeral than has been suggested. Gold, and North American Palladium's other precious group metals, are likely to become much more valuable.

CAPS member primordialstuff didn't need a stock market gripped by hysteria to know that with lots of cash and more mines to develop, NAP will outperform the market, while RustyBolts is looking for Chinese auto production to push palladium higher.

The demand for palladium will shoot up as vehicle production continues to increase in China, and as the U.S. auto industry starts to recover. Palladium is used in the manufacture of the catalytic converters in almost all vehicles with internal combustion engines.

A 1-in-100 opportunity
As hockey great Wayne Gretzky once noted, "You miss 100% of the shots you never take." At Motley Fool CAPS every investor's opinion counts and since it's free to sign up, why not use this opportunity to take your best shot?