Get Ready for the Bounce

"Don't catch a falling knife," as the old saw commands. (Pardon my mixing a cutlery metaphor.) The idea of buying a former superstar stock at a discount price certainly has its attractions, but you've got to make sure you catch the haft -- not the blade. That's where Motley Fool CAPS comes in.

Today, we once again stand beneath Mr. Market's silverware drawer, measuring which knives have fallen the farthest. Then we'll call on CAPS to ask which of these stocks -- if any -- Foolish investors believe are ready for a rebound. Let's meet today's list of contenders, drawn from the latest "52-Week Lows" list at WSJ.com:

Companies are selected from the "New Highs & Lows" lists published on WSJ.com on Friday last week. 52-week high, recent price, and CAPS ratings from Motley Fool CAPS.

Pennies from heaven
Last week was interesting, to say the least. Thursday's sell-off offered investors the opportunity to own such bargains as Procter & Gamble at $39 a stub, or Accenture for the even more attractive price of $0.01 per share. Sadly, most of these bargains had evaporated by the time Friday rolled around, but some Fools still see value in the companies that kept on falling.

Take AMAG Pharma. A little over a week after reporting first-quarter results -- revenues way up, but losses of $1.15 per share surmounting Wall Street's prediction -- AMAG touched a new 52-week low on Friday. Regardless, CAPS All-Star Goosie69 is sticking with an August 2009 endorsement of the stock, in which Goosie predicted AMAG will soon be pulling in a "$2B/yr revenue stream." With annual sales still shy of the $30 million mark, however, that day still appears far off, and judging from its two-star CAPS rating, most Fools remain leery of the stock.

Or consider Boston Scientific, once-upon-a-time winner of the Guidant competition with Johnson & Johnson. CAPS member Houston1817 believes "device makers should profit from health care reform ... [and] benefit from reduced industry tax and the postponement of fees." However, Boston Scientific recently reported results of its own, headlined by the alarming admission that it has lost significant share in the defibrillators market to rivals Medtronic (NYSE: MDT) and St. Jude (NYSE: STJ). Revelations like these have most CAPS investors sitting on the sidelines and giving Boston Sci a fence-straddling three-star rating.

And then there's Qualcomm, winner of four sparkling stars on CAPS, and this week's top pick.

The bull case for Qualcomm
CAPS All-Star FreeMortal calls Qualcomm: "Innovative and unloved. Like most tech companies at this time, earnings are very likely to catch up." FoolishBaldGuy sees potential in the company's having: "Plenty of patents and poised for growth, especially after letting the market down earlier in the year."

And as bulletlora confides, Qualcomm's new "1GHz Snapdragon processor will be in smartphone by end of this year. [It should be noted, the processer is already in Google's (Nasdaq: GOOG) Nexus One and other phones, but should continue to ramp into new products.] Good balance sheet with new products to inttroduce."

Buy the numbers
I agree. I wouldn't be as quick as bulletlora, or other CAPS members of similar bent, to place all my faith in Snapdragon (Google's run into some pretty well publicized difficulties getting the phone launched with Verizon (NYSE: VZ)). But whatever it is that ultimately catalyzes the growth at Qualcomm, I see every potential for enormous gains once that catalyst materializes.

Why? Well, just look at the numbers. With $3.2 billion in trailing earnings, Qualcomm already sells for just a 19.5 P/E ratio -- entirely reasonable for a projected 20%-plus grower. But the really great news here is that Qualcomm is actually about 40% cheaper than it looks on the surface. With free cash flow of nearly $4 billion to its credit, and a bank account brimming with $11.1 billion in cash, I'd argue it's more accurate to view Qualcomm as a company selling for an enterprise value of just 12.4 times its annual free cash flow. And from this perspective, the stock's an absolute steal if it comes anywhere near generating the 20% long-term growth that Wall Street expects.

Foolish takeaway
I cannot tell you when the turnaround will come. I cannot say what, precisely, will be the event or product that awakens Wall Street to Qualcomm's value, and sends the stock price flying. But I can tell you that the value is there, just waiting to be unlocked.

(Of course, that's just my opinion. You, on the other hand, are perfectly free to disagree. If you think investors are right to be selling this one off, don't be shy -- tell us why.)