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Smartphone Bloodbath: Google to Beat Apple, RIM by End of 2010?

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The smartphone wars keep turning up new twists and turns. Last week saw the U.S. release of the Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL  ) iPhone 4. We heard from Piper Jaffray that 77% of them went to repeat customers, vs. 56% last year this time. Is the iBubble bursting?

Research In Motion (Nasdaq: RIMM  ) reported sales of 11.2 million BlackBerrys. The growth is strong, another 6% from the first quarter. Likely about on par with industry growth, typical RIM, but also in line with statements we've been hearing from other smartphone makers like Nokia (NYSE: NOK  ) , Samsung, Lenovo, Motorola, LG, and Sony Ericsson -- the profits are very tight. RIM reported lowered average sales prices and their profits came in less than the Wall Street analysts expected. Is this a sign of the bloodbath? For sure.

The big bomb came from Google (Nasdaq: GOOG  ) , which reported that it's now selling 160,000 Android devices per day. That means an annual run rate of 58 million! Just some weeks ago it was 36 million. Now it's 58 million. That pushes Android not just safely ahead of the iPhone (which was running 35 million in the first quarter) but now Android devices have passed BlackBerry (run rate of 46 million currently) to be the second best-selling smartphone OS, behind only Symbian which runs about 70 million. Earlier I had been saying Android can't catch Symbian during 2011; now if this rate keeps up, they will. Massive news.

2010 Smartphone Market by Platform (Estimate on June 28, 2010)

  • Symbian (73 Million)
  • Android (58 Million)
  • BlackBerry (46 Million)
  • iPhone OS (35 Million)
  • Windows Mobile 6.5 (8.5 Million)

As you can see in this quickly compiled estimate list, Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT  ) is deeply in trouble. In the past 12 months, they've managed to launch or announce no less than four separate incompatible OSs: Windows Mobile 6.5, Windows Phone 7, the Kin OS (which is somewhere in between), and now a business/enterprise-oriented OS to continue support of old enterprise apps and developers? Meanwhile, rumors say Kin is not selling at all well. While Android rockets past all rivals, what is happening to Microsoft? They are facing emergency action by the WWF as an endangered species ... with nobody to blame but themselves.

Over at Nokia, they say the N-Series is shifting to MeeGo while the remaining about 80%-plus Nokia smartphones will continue on Symbian, including E-Series. Judging from the N-Series sales volume, following the shift of N-Series to MeeGo, this joint venture between Intel (Nasdaq: INTC  ) and Nokia could overtake Microsoft in its first 12 months of sales.

More from Bright Side of News*:

You can read more from Tomi Ahonen at Bright Side of News* here.

This article was originally published by and modified by The Motley Fool.

Intel, Microsoft, and Nokia are Motley Fool Inside Value choices. Google is a Rule Breakers recommendation. Apple is a Stock Advisor pick. The Fool has created a covered strangle position on Intel. Motley Fool Options has recommended buying calls on Intel and a diagonal call position on Microsoft. Try any of our Foolish newsletters today, free for 30 days. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Read/Post Comments (2) | Recommend This Article (3)

Comments from our Foolish Readers

Help us keep this a respectfully Foolish area! This is a place for our readers to discuss, debate, and learn more about the Foolish investing topic you read about above. Help us keep it clean and safe. If you believe a comment is abusive or otherwise violates our Fool's Rules, please report it via the Report this Comment Report this Comment icon found on every comment.

  • Report this Comment On June 28, 2010, at 10:36 AM, bsimpsen wrote:

    It's not that the iPhone bubble is bursting. It's that the iPhone is not yet available on Verizon. There will be a second wave of iPhone purchases when that carrier is available. To judge iPhone against Android, overseas sales are probably a better gauge.

  • Report this Comment On June 29, 2010, at 9:57 AM, RHinCT wrote:

    I wish articles like these included a breakdown of the numbers by USA vs everywhere else. There are major differences between those markets. Without that breakout you can't really compare the numbers very well.

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