Lumpy-itis is a powerful malaise. Look at plucky little wireless infrastructure vendor DragonWave (Nasdaq: DRWI ) for a vivid example: The company just reported 275% higher sales year over year and reversed a $0.08 net loss per share to a profit of $0.26 per share. Impressive stuff, no?
But DragonWave's sales are very unpredictable as the company depends on the wireless buildouts and upgrades of a handful of customers. ClearWire (Nasdaq: CLWR ) typically stands for about 80% of DragonWave's revenue, and 78% this time, so the contracts come in fits and starts.
$48.7 million in sales in the just-reported first quarter was a staggering improvement over the year-ago period's $13 million, but it was a vertigo-inducing drop from last quarter's $61 million. DragonWave expects ClearWire's order volume to drop off a bit, so only 25% of the second-quarter business will come from that 4G network rollout. Total sales projected? $25 million. Ouch. The road ahead is full of potholes, which explains why DragonWave's stock is 16% cheaper today.
The story was the same three months ago, when the press release trumpeted that "DragonWave Announces Record Fourth Quarter and Full Fiscal Year 2010 Results," and the stock fell off a cliff with a 30% drop in two days. In all fairness, the company fell slightly short of the $50 million first-quarter revenue target it announced back then, but you'd think the writing on the wall would be very clear -- all of the lumpy-sales uncertainty should have been priced into the stock already. But no.
That makes DragonWave an attractive investment today. The stock trades at a ridiculous 4.1 times trailing earnings after this report. The debt-free cash on the balance sheet adds up to $3.15 per share, and the stubs are trading for $4.69 apiece. You do the math on how little value the market is placing on DragonWire's business.
That's the kind of pricing you'd expect from a company destined for the great closing bell in the sky, but not from a recognized market leader in a vibrant growth industry like next-generation wireless networking. DragonWave and its WiMAX infrastructure rivals Alvarion (Nasdaq: ALVR ) and Ceragon Networks (Nasdaq: CRNT ) are all highly respected by your fellow investors in our CAPS system.
ClearWire may be the biggest fish in DragonWave's net today, but the company isn't married to ClearWire's WiMAX technology. The backhaul solutions on tap are also compatible with the LTE standard that's coming soon to Verizon (NYSE: VZ ) and AT&T (NYSE: T ) . Besides, it's a big world, and DragonWave is merely getting started expanding outside North America. The company is profitable and the balance sheet solid; bankruptcy is simply not in the cards. You're getting a hell of a deal at these prices.
I'm heading over to CAPS to rate DragonWave "outperform" right now, given that ludicrous valuation. You can tag along if you'd like.
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