Will Sirius XM Exist in 3 Years?

• Report this Comment On July 12, 2010, at 2:51 PM, cajun021 wrote:

  I would like to know what phone he used. If it was a satalite phone that would be ironic. If its just a regular phone I would like to know what service he had to get reception at the cabin in the middle of the woods. This article smells of shorting, but thats really not surprising considering the website.

  As to why this company will still be around for a while, continual growth, continual new/used cars sold, over the road truck drivers, fishing boats, oil plateforms workers, ect... there will always be a need for an alternative sorce of broadcasting.

• Report this Comment On July 12, 2010, at 3:10 PM, paulbverizonnet8 wrote:

  Yes, I think SIRI is good, the stock is so cheap that they might get bought out? But then that would mean I owned some other stock. I just wish the insiders at SIRI would start buying.

  Giordano Bruno

• Report this Comment On July 12, 2010, at 3:12 PM, JeffBinDC wrote:

  Interesting point.. but short sited. The problem with pandora(and AOLRadio, Rhapsody, etc) is that with the overturning of the net neutrality laws, providers are going to start charging more and more and more for that bandwidth used. For example, AT&T just changed its rate structure to charge more for the bandwidth hungry. Wanna guess why?

  So Pandora will not be a "free" app much longer b/c the company is going to have to make money somehow. So that + the cost to deliver it is going to cost. Sooner, rather than later I'm sure that if you take those cost.. SatRad will be cheaper.

  and more reliable..

  and better content..

• Report this Comment On July 12, 2010, at 3:12 PM, paulbverizonnet8 wrote:

  Yes Cajun, I have high hopes for SIRI. The stock is so cheap it might get bought out? But I don't think that would be such a bad thing. I just wish the insiders would start buying their company's stock.

  Giordano Bruno

• Report this Comment On July 12, 2010, at 3:13 PM, thethirdchimp wrote:

  Web radio down the highway is not free; data plans cost at least 20 dollars per month or more; you can get 50 channels of commercial free music, news, entertainment for 8 dollars per month and you can drive all over the country with uninterrupted svcs plus get superior content with buffering issues, loss of signal; also, Pandora now is charging fees for extending play svcs. Your article seems disingenuous. Are you short the stock?

• Report this Comment On July 12, 2010, at 3:17 PM, TerrapinStation wrote:

  Let me tell you what will not be around in three years- commercial free streaming of radio over the internet that costs the user nothing.

  Its not free now, but companies like Pandora exist with the money of investors but has yet to yield any real revenue. IF Pandora and the other internet broadcasters make it- it will be either through massive amounts of commercials or by charging a fee. Now, what is different about that? Commercial radio exists today (terrestrial) as does pay radio (sat.).

  But Motley Fool is obviously friends with the shorts so they write this type of article. Nice job, its why I will never join your site, either.

• Report this Comment On July 12, 2010, at 3:29 PM, WoodyDog1400 wrote:

  Sure Rick, and I bet Directv and Dish will be obslete then also...

  Better question is will FREE radio and Pandora be around in 3 years. Doubt that one. Not for FREE atleast....Remember Napster?

• Report this Comment On July 12, 2010, at 3:44 PM, Cool700 wrote:

  We listened to it all the way down [Route] 66, Interstate 81,

  *******************************************************************************

  I think that was a complete lie! Unless the guy had a satellite phone.

  The RIAA will eventually win and free radio will have to pay royalty fees. Free will be gone in time. Clear Channel is in huge debt and will be in huge trouble by 2014 and may go bankrupt.

  Ass for Pandora and the others. If you add phone fees SIRI seems to look much cheaper and better anyway!

  Besides SIRIUS XM is growing and becoming profitable.

• Report this Comment On July 12, 2010, at 4:17 PM, Valuestocksonly wrote:

  Content is King as well as signal availability. These two things Pandora lacks. What a lame attempt at bashing Sat. radio.

• Report this Comment On July 12, 2010, at 4:58 PM, yahoomania wrote:

  The Motley "fools" are ALWAYS "short sited". Now, they can't even write a solo article!! It took two morons (Chris AND Mac)...to write this dribble. HHHAAAA!!!! How the "Fool" has not been investigated through this only serves to prove the big point: They're all crooked...the system and the participants. A cashier at freaking WalMart could have written a better article....all by himself!!

• Report this Comment On July 12, 2010, at 5:11 PM, robpegoraro wrote:

  Since some of you had asked for more details about my experience test-driving Web radio, please have a look at the column I wrote about it:

  http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/05...

  (That piece doesn't name the exact model, so I'll tell you: It was a Verizon Wireless BlackBerry Storm.)

  There's also some useful background in the accompanying blog post, including details on the financial picture for Web-radio firms like Pandora, Slacker and lesser-known operations like Radio Paradise that factors in such issues as performance royalties:

  http://voices.washingtonpost.com/fasterforward/2009/05/going...

  I don't agree with your interpretation of net-neutrality regulation's prospects--the companies opposing these rules make a point of saying that they don't and will not discriminate against content. The bigger risk lies in tiered-usage broadband rates like AT&T's--but that carrier is the only one to opt for that approach so far.

  Finally: In case you're not aware of Post policies, I can't and don't invest in any company I cover, or any company that does business in a market that I cover.

  - Rob Pegoraro

• Report this Comment On July 12, 2010, at 5:12 PM, themaxpain wrote:

  "There are sort of two ways you can compete with web radio. You can be cheaper; that's kind of hard. You can have more variety. Also kind of hard when you use satellites with fixed bandwidth, or you can be more local --- difficult to do when you use satellites that have to cover the entire country."

  Counting can be difficult, but that's three ways, not two.

  Here's a fourth way:

  You can have a combination of exclusive content that people can't get anywhere else (Howard Stern, Oprah, Rosie, CNBC, Bloomberg, special events, etc) and other quality content (MLB, NFL, NHL, etc) that Pandora and internet radio don't ... and really can't offer in an all-in-one package.

• Report this Comment On July 12, 2010, at 5:12 PM, werghk wrote:

  I'm trying to figure out why they didn't post my opinion earlier? I was saying I find it funny how one day they say 5 reasons to SELL sirius,then when they come out with good news the next day,they say 5 reasons to BUY sirius.Then Pandoras the best,then it's not so great,it's not even publicly traded.Pandora will cost more,because their going to have to pay Royalty Fees,plus rely on advertising to support it.So it won't be commercial free period.Something don't sound right,if you know what I mean.

• Report this Comment On July 12, 2010, at 5:49 PM, doubting wrote:

  Of course Sirius will not exist three years from now!!! This is why they added over 1M customers in the last 12 months. And exactly this is why they will add at least another 4M to 6M new subs in the next three years. We have just invented a new way of becoming extinct by growing business and becoming very profitable. You guys are truly running out of ideas and becoming rificulously shallow. In what mind does one have to be to make such statements when the company just added in Q2, 2010 almost 600K new subs and will most likely add over 1.5M new subs in 2010. This is even worse than palm reading.

• Report this Comment On July 12, 2010, at 6:47 PM, Fredlee009 wrote:

  I doubt Pandora will exist in 3 years. Lets get some facts.

  1. I dont believe your story. Period.

  2. Internet radio has more variety? No way. Sirius XM has the best radio options on the planet. Period. non debatable. I dont care if you can listen to internet radio. Internet radio is terrible. Worse than terrestrial radio, and a reaon its dying. In 3 years when Sirius has over 22 million subs. come talk to me.

• Report this Comment On July 12, 2010, at 6:48 PM, Fredlee009 wrote:

  Pandoras yearly revenue...60 million... on ads mostly.

  Sirius XM yearly revenue from ads. Around 65 million. O and 2.7 billion in revenue too from subs.

  Pandora pays 30 million of their 50 mililon in revenue to pay royalties. Nothing left after costs.

  Sirius's revenue is 2.8 billion. to 50 million.

  If I owned Sirius, I would sue the author of this article for fomenting.

• Report this Comment On July 12, 2010, at 6:50 PM, Fredlee009 wrote:

  Shorting? No people. You bash when your covering, you pump when your shorting. This is like the most basic of market rules. You CANT SHORT OF PEOPLE SELLING IDIOTS!!!

  They short off your dumb high buys when they pump it, why we cant break out. Too many stupid buys. Stop buying high and selling low. Buy and hold or go play another stock. This stock trades way to hard for the average investor to even try it. No point.

• Report this Comment On July 12, 2010, at 8:23 PM, PokerRon wrote:

  Sirius/XM is just something you have to experience.

• Report this Comment On July 13, 2010, at 8:08 AM, superdave1459 wrote:

  Another good example of blind love and suckers sitting on a terrible stock. It's always someone shorting that is the reason for calling sat radio what it is...a fad and niche market. The other example of the blind dolts holding this stock is when they claim to post facts then dribble out a bunch od stupid opinions, as if writing it just makes it so (Internet radio sucks)....I listen to internet radio all the time and it is great, no commercials, genre of music I want, the list goes on.

  I wouldn't go so far as to say sat radio will go away but it will remain a niche market and the stock will not make you all rich like your wildest dreams have been convincing you over the past 6 years.

  A cheap stock? Obviously all you suckers have no clue about stocks, market cap and shares outstanding. All you can do is laugh at the dolts that write stuff that is so blatantly wrong they don't even realize how stupid they make themselves look....LMAO all day long reading you blind bats.

• Report this Comment On July 13, 2010, at 8:31 AM, MikieZ wrote:

  I cant stand Pandora, every 5 songs it freezes up and stops working. But as most consumers I dont feel like paying for an sirus subscription.

• Report this Comment On July 13, 2010, at 2:09 PM, johnnyelectron wrote:

  Cellphones are charging for bandwidth. If I listen to Sirius for 3 days, my WHOLE MONTH of bandwidth is used up, meanwhile, I can use my XM Radio 24 hours a day and it's still $12.95 a month unlimited! With cell companies charging and limiting bandwidth you are NOT going to see (or hear) much streaming audio anymore. Thanks a lot AT&T and Verizon for messing that up. For that reason alone, XM/Sirius will continue to thrive as there is no per minute or per MB usage fee - it's just like regular cable TV - pay the same every month.

• Report this Comment On July 13, 2010, at 2:45 PM, munciegadgetguy wrote:

  Pegoraro misses the mark. Signals from satellite radio providers did not depend on the location of cell towers or wifi spots. I could be out in the woods and still get a signal from satellite radio, but not have cell or wifi. Pegoraro should travel to the U.S. heartland sometime.

• Report this Comment On July 13, 2010, at 2:57 PM, munciegadgetguy wrote:

  Satellite radio has a built-in audience with truckers. There are areas on the U.S. that don't have wifi or cell service, but still have a clear shot at the sky for a sat signal.

• Report this Comment On July 13, 2010, at 4:21 PM, EvilPhD wrote:

  SIRI is an amazingly resilient company with an increadable creative staff.

  As for fears that free streaming music is dead, look at WinAmp's Shoutcast (yes owned by AOL). That has existed for the good part of a decade. It includes everything from foreign and domestic Radio stations to joe-blow in his basement streaming music.

  People are now paying for iPhone and Android apps that allow this. In the end you are going to pay someone (ISP, Cell provider, app dev) for music that is decent and not full of Despicle Me forced adds through your fav show (the reason I boycotted the movie).

  SIRI needs to get apps out there for cell phones. Heck have the cell phones pre-loaded with the app and give them a year sub. on it. They will pick up a good number of users if they do. After all cell phones are cheaper than a car.

  As for Buyouts... Liberty Media pretty much did minus a majority share (40%), unless someone is poised to hostilly take over Liberty Media, then I don't think that's in the future. Eventually the debt will disappear, but the company needs to be on it's toes and keep up with the creativity.

• Report this Comment On July 13, 2010, at 5:54 PM, tom2727 wrote:

  I think web based radio is a long term threat to the SIRI business model, but certainly not in a 3 year time frame. More like 10-15 years before the high speed data coverage is anywhere near comparable with the coverage area satellite provides.

  And as more and more people start using these mobile web streaming services, phone providers will realize they can't afford to offer "all you can eat" data plans to people who are really going to eat up that much bandwidth. If they try, the reliability of their networks will begin to suffer, or their profits will nose dive as they spend to upgrade the networks to handle the load.

  It's like a restaurant that offers all you can eat fried shrimp for $10. When people start walking in and eating 10x, 20x, 100x what you predicted they would, you change your menu or go broke. Just look at AT&T's experience with the I-phone. They don't offer unlimited data for new customers at any price.

  Unlimited data plans will still be around in the future, but the price is gonna go up significantly as providers redo their usage models in the world of streaming audio / video, Skype, etc. When that happens, I think people will realize that they can buy SIRI radio, and get the SIRI content for less money than they would have to pay for the extra bandwidth to stream that much net content through their phone.

  At least in the near term. Who knows what tech will come in the long term. But even in the long term, I doubt the net will ever have the "premium"content (sports, talk, live events, etc) to match Satellite radio. Not for free anyway.

  If you just want commercial free music in your car, you're probably not the type to pay for SIRI. Just plug in your MP3 player and hit shuffle.

  If you just want standard radio, most large US cities have plenty of variety on terrestrial radio. No need for you to pay for SIRI.

  But even with that competition, there's enough SIRI subscribers to make it cash flow positive and the subscriber numbers are growing.

  Will mobile net radio kill SIRI? Possibly, but I doubt it. Hulu and BitTorrent haven't killed cable TV yet.

• Report this Comment On July 13, 2010, at 7:07 PM, TadpolesUS wrote:

  I don't think that SIRI will exist for very long, but the satellite radio service will exist for as long as the satellites stay in orbit and operational. Just like a lot of high-initial-cost ventures, the entity that sinks all the capital into the infrastructure ends up with high debt and a weak balance sheet. After SIRI declares itself insolvent, the next operator won't have the high debt burden to service, and many of the customers will remain.

  If the 'test' of internet radio had been conducted anywhere close to where I live (central Arkansas) it would have been a dismal failure. (Why do so many easterners consider themselves mainstream America?)

• Report this Comment On July 14, 2010, at 12:51 PM, bighairydogcat wrote:

  We love Pandora and Slacker.. They are Free. I use a smart phone and stream while in my car, mowing grass, fishing, riding a roller coaster, 'laying on the beach perpetrating a tan', writing this post, shopping, standing in line at the bmv, saving children from burning buildings, and ... you get the idea.

  I guess I could pay for service and buy a mobile device to listen to Siri. Some argue you have to pay for a smart phone. I agree, but you pay for a new radio(car), and a monthly fee. The kicker.... it's tethered to your car!

  There are several free internet radio choices out there and all are customizable to your taste. Like that artist? Rate the artist and hear more from them. Hate it? Ban it from ever playing again. Spend a little time with Pandora or Slacker rating the music and in no time you have a personalized FREE radio playing only your favorite music.

  Someone here in another article about why to buy Siri asked what is Pandora and Slacker? Ask any teenager they will tell you. Oh and by the way, that teenager will be shopping for a car soon. You think they care about Siri built in... ?

  Nope the question they ask is " Where can I plug my smart phone in?"

• Report this Comment On July 16, 2010, at 4:18 PM, hershalsavage wrote:

  I always laugh at these types of article. I've been a Sirius/XM cutomer for over 5 years now and I've been happy with. I have really nasty commute and its great to have the music variety, which we here in Denver don't have since most of the local stations have been taken over and ruined by Clear Channel.

  In addition, the bit about "we drove all over the place with our "web radio" never lost coverage" is laughable. I've made several road trips here in the western US and Sirius has always been there...however, my Blackberry "Web radio" doesn't even come close, the coverage just aint there.

• Report this Comment On July 16, 2010, at 5:04 PM, BklynMoney wrote:

  This article is foolish. You are paying for exclusive content. Pandora is crap anyway. Phone bandwidth rates are going up also. You are paying for Pandora indirectly due to phone bandwidth rates and it does not provide any exclusive content. SIRI will definitely be around in 3 years. I am looking for them to buy WorldSpace within 3 years. Remember SIRI has 20 MILLION subs. Sat. Radio is a necessity for truck drivers. If SIRI survived this recession there is no way they are going out of business. SIRI just needs to get out of all the debt they are in.

• Report this Comment On July 16, 2010, at 11:01 PM, NealBarkett wrote:

  While most everyone is getting upset over this article the answer is for Sirius Xm to beat everyone in this arena at their own games. Tiers tiers tiers! Sirius xm has enough bandwidth to offer free w/ commercials all the way up the ladder to "Best of Both". I think Sirius Xm and everyone else who follows Sat. radio is missing the big picture! Beat all your competitions butts w/ meeting the needs of as many consumers as possible. They limit their market by having this attitude of being the gold standard of audio entertainment. Yes, they have that GOLDEN CONTENT to offer but it doesn't all have to be 14 carrot for all. If I where MEL (I know , a big if) I would want Sirius Xm in as many cars, homes, restaurants,aircraft, boats etc. as possible. I want to bring as many people aboard as possible. Yes you would have to offer a limited content format w/ sponsorship for free,as the lowest tier and work your way up to the existing tiers. How do you let 20 million idle radios (and this number grows daily while the sac cost doesn't go away), Open up the flood gates and get this brand more recognized, give the people on the free and lower tiers a taste of what they are missing, which is great content. Mel is quoted all the time that content is king, so give the masses "enough to wet their beaks"(yes, from the greatest movie ever THE GODFATHER), let them get a taste of the candy. They could be the pied piper of digital audio entertainment if they would get rid of theie elitist attitude. Why limit yourself? All you are doing is helping your competitors.

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