It's LDK's Lucky Day

Last winter, I asked whether "Too Big to Fail" extends to the solar power industry. I was speaking about LDK Solar (NYSE: LDK  ) , a company that has been a disaster for long-term shareholders (shares traded roughly three times higher on the day of the 2007 IPO), but has received generous state support in its native China.

Obviously, LDK is not systemically important to China in the way a financial firm like ICBC is. Still, the country is making a concerted effort to establish a globally competitive clean energy industry. One way to achieve this goal is to choose favorites. It's become clear to me that once Chinese solar companies reach a certain critical mass, they gain access to essentially unlimited financing from government-backed financial entities.

We saw this in July when Solarfun Power (Nasdaq: SOLF  ) secured a credit facility with a single bank that exceeded the company's entire market cap at the time. This deal made it clear that Solarfun is one of China's favored firms.

LDK, the world's largest solar wafer producer, is another. Underlining this fact is this week's news of a "strategic financing agreement" with China Development Bank, a 100% government-owned entity. CDB, which cut similar deals with Trina Solar (NYSE: TSL  ) and Suntech Power (NYSE: STP  ) earlier this year, has offered to extend LDK credit of up to $8.9 billion. We're talking about a company with $1.5 billion in trailing revenue. This is what I mean by an "essentially unlimited" financial backstop.

I've warned investors repeatedly that LDK, with leverage ratios considerably higher than smaller competitor ReneSola (NYSE: SOL  ) , is in poor financial shape. This government financing mechanism certainly takes the edge off of those liquidity concerns. Hence the pop in shares on Monday.

As a capitalist, I suppose I should enjoy a game that's rigged in favor of a set of select firms. There's nothing like a nice oligopoly to lock in above-average returns on invested capital. That being said, I'm still reluctant to put my money behind LDK. In terms of running the company for per-share value creation, the track record to date is less than comforting.

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Fool contributor Toby Shute doesn't have a position in any company mentioned. Check out his CAPS profileor follow his articles using Twitter or RSS. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.


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  • Report this Comment On September 28, 2010, at 8:31 PM, scanlin wrote:

    The only way I'd play LDK right now is with an ITM call. Looks like it has support around 8, so the Oct 8s might be okay, although they only pay 16% ARIF (annualized return-if-flat for a buy-write). The Oct 9s, for those who are more aggressive, pay ARIF of 50%. But to be honest, I'd rather invest in FSLR. The Oct 140s have ARIF of 22.3%, and have no earnings before expiration.

    MikeS

    http://www.borntosell.com

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