At The Motley Fool, we poke plenty of fun at Wall Street analysts and their endless cycle of upgrades, downgrades, and "initiating coverage at neutral." So you might think we'd be the last people to give virtual ink to such "news." And we would be -- if that were all we were doing.
But in "This Just In," we don't simply tell you what the analysts said. We'll also show you whether they know what they're talking about. To help, we've enlisted Motley Fool CAPS, our tool for rating stocks and analysts alike. With CAPS, we track the long-term performance of Wall Street's best and brightest -- and its worst and sorriest, too.
The Apple of Wall Street's eye
Is there anyone left who doesn't love Apple
Citing a "quickly expanding" supply chain for the Apple iPad, CLSA boosted its sales projections for the new tablet computer -- and with them, its price target on the stock: $365 per share within a year. Not to be outdone at the advent of its buy-rating, Ticonderoga clambered quickly out on a limb and announced to the world that it loves Apple even more -- and believes the stock will hit $430 per share. For the record, that's now the highest price target of anyone following the company.
Why does Ti think Apple's worth more than ExxonMobil
An Apple a day keeps underperformance at bay
Which, when you think about it, isn't even all that shocking a valuation, coming after all the prose-formed praise that Ticonderoga showers upon the company. Right now, Apple sells for barely 21 times trailing earnings. Considering how fast Apple is growing these days -- faster than Google
Nor would Apple even need to outpace consensus results by all that much to make Ticonderoga's wishes come true. Right now, consensus estimates are calling for the iMagnate to earn $17.71 per share in 2011. For a 20 times multiple to reach $430 (minus nearly $50 in cash-per-share), all Apple needs to do next year is earn $19 a share.
Easy-peasy, Apple squeezy
Even the shorts don't seem to think that goals terribly unrealistic. Considering the tiny 1.4% share of the company's float that is currently sold short, it seems few traders are willing to run the risk that a company that's exceeded estimates in each of the past four quarters will do it again in the future.
Which to me, seems prudent. With $14.3 billion in trailing free cash flow, even today Apple's reported GAAP earnings significantly understate the cash profit this titan churns out every year. Apple's trailing price-to-free cash flow ratio sits at less than 18 right now -- appropriate in light of the 20% projected growth rate, and suggestive of even greater earnings growth as the company narrows the gap between reported "earnings," and real free cash flow.
Foolish final thought
Now admittedly, I'd feel a whole lot more comfortable hearing these arguments coming out of someone else's mouth. If you've ever taken a look at Ticonderoga's CAPS page, it's pretty clear that this is not exactly the world's best analyst we're talking about here. Since we began tracking Ti, two months ago, it's only managed to call two stocks right -- Apache Corp
Then again, seeing as how Ticonderoga is arguing Apple will soon be bigger than Exxon, maybe that's a good omen after all.