How High Can Sirius XM Go?

It's been a good time to be long Sirius XM Radio (Nasdaq: SIRI  ) , and a dangerous time to bet against the satellite radio giant.

Shares of Sirius XM hit a fresh two-year high this morning, and that's with the uncertainty surrounding Howard Stern's contract, which expires in two months.

After four profitable quarters and what has already been confirmed as five quarters of net subscriber growth, Sirius XM isn't the crapshoot wager it was when speculators were wondering if EchoStar (Nasdaq: SATS  ) or Liberty Capital (Nasdaq: LCAPA  ) would save it from the jaws of bankruptcy.

No one is picking Sirius XM in corporate death pools these days. Institutional investors are even starting to buy in, regardless of the stock's pocket-change pricing.

What about Stern, though?

CEO Mel Karmazin expected an announcement before the company's third-quarter conference call, which is taking place next Thursday morning.

Both sides are negotiating in public. Stern has entertained the possibility of launching his show as a streaming app, something that is no longer a laughably bad decision. Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL  ) has moved more than 100 million iPad, iPod touch, and iPhone devices that run on the App Store-centric iOS platform. Rival smartphone makers have their own nascent marketplaces.

The rub with that strategy is that folks will expect more Stern if he sets himself up as a stand-alone premium product. He has often indicated that he wants to scale back on his number of live broadcasts, and that's something that's easier to do as one of the many premium channels on Sirius.

We'll see how it all plays out. Stern is wrapping up a five-year deal that was originally valued at $500 million, so it's not as if his leaving would be catastrophic. Sirius XM would be able to dramatically shave programming overhead. The real question will be how many subscribers would follow Stern out the door.

In the meantime, next Thursday will be telling. We've been here before. Sirius XM pre-announces great subscriber numbers. The stock runs up ahead of the report. Shares sell off on the actual quarterly earnings release, despite the solid improvement.

It could be different this time, given the pending programming news, or history could simply repeat itself. Healthier institutional stakes and greater model viability can only help, but the arrival of more analytically minded investors will force the stock to tackle its valuation demons.

Sirius XM is never boring, but the next few days will be especially interesting.

So how high can Sirius XM go? Share your thoughts in the comments box below.

Apple is a Motley Fool Stock Advisor pick. The Fool owns shares of Apple. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors.

Longtime Fool contributor Rick Munarriz is a subscriber to both Sirius and XM. He does not own shares in any of the companies in this story. He is also a member of the Rule Breakers analytical team, seeking out the next great growth stock early in its defiance. The Fool has a disclosure policy.


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Comments from our Foolish Readers

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  • Report this Comment On October 28, 2010, at 2:06 PM, Valuestocksonly wrote:

    I believe it could hit $1.57. A lot of rumor will be floating around. Howard is not going anywhere. 2 years 60 mill option for 3rd. He will get in on all the available SIRI apps and he will be filthy rich.

  • Report this Comment On October 28, 2010, at 2:40 PM, JPDemers wrote:

    Does anybody know if the technology allows SIRI to know, with certainty, how many subscribers actually listen to Stern? Personally, I find it hard to imagine how anybody over the age of 18 could enjoy his schtick, but that's just me... the question is, does SIRI have a good handle on how relevant he is to the bottom line?

  • Report this Comment On October 28, 2010, at 2:40 PM, tjtoretire wrote:

    With the institutional investors coming on line I see a run-up to $2.00 pre-earnings. Post earnings it pulls back to $1.76. From there it steadily increases to $5.00 with Sirius2 coming on line. This may very well be the next 10X bagger like Ford over the next year.

  • Report this Comment On October 28, 2010, at 2:41 PM, jelway07 wrote:

    SIRI is definitely a solid investment at this point if you're what I like to call a LTT (Long Term Thinker)

    I'm confident by the end of the year SIRI will be in the $1.48-$1.67 range. Five years from now – the $4.20 -$6.00 range. 15-20 years (LTT) this will be a $30 per share plus stock. A few years back someone told me to invest in Netflix at $24 per share. I didn’t. SIRI has a very similar business module. You just need patience with the LTT strategy.

  • Report this Comment On October 28, 2010, at 2:58 PM, ItAintCool wrote:

    As I said many times before. This will be Stern's deal with SIRI; 3 years, 3 days a week and $240 million to $270 million. But here's the 2 possibilities that will happen in addition to the deal;

    1) He will allow his channel as a streaming app on a smart phone for the Sirius Smart Phone app. In exchange he'll get a huge % share of all revenue from any subscribers that subscribe to the app from the day of announcement - up until he quits SIRI.

    2) He stays on SIRI for 3 years, but offers his own privately owned streaming Smart Phone app which simulcasts the SIRI broadcast. He gets 90-100% of the revenue for the app (less a studio rental payment for using SIRI's equipment and some revenue sharing with SIRI, about 10%). Using the streaming app, he builds up a new audience and continues to maintain his old Sat Radio audience. In 3 years, if he's built up enough streaming app subscribers, he'll retire from SIRI but continue to operate on his own show through the streaming Smart Phone app and be his own boss and C.E.O.

    Either way, Sirius will skyrocket. Get it now or forever regret it.

  • Report this Comment On October 28, 2010, at 3:15 PM, cdaveat wrote:

    Stern stays, Sirius keeps a solid subscriber base. Stern leaves, Sirius Saves 100 million per year. Win! Win! Also, the threat of going to an Apple App is soo laughable it seems to be a running gag around here. Streaming content to a cell phone is not plausible do to data stream caps and above all the cost of the data plan itself. Not only that but listening to sound coming from a cell phone is horrible! He'll stay at Sirius since there is no other REAL viable option.

  • Report this Comment On October 28, 2010, at 3:50 PM, bkichuck wrote:

    I guess I am one of the over 18 people who listen to Stern, and bought SIRIUS solely for that reason. Those who don't listen need to understand the importance of those of us who do and enjoy the stocks continued rise. If Stern goes their will be a negative effect on the stock so quit saying it would be a good thing. It wouldn't.

  • Report this Comment On October 28, 2010, at 4:02 PM, oakie76 wrote:

    Everybody in my family loves Sirius!! No of them even listen to Howard Stern. Don't believe the Stern Hype. The guy is getting old and is not that funny anymore.

  • Report this Comment On October 28, 2010, at 4:04 PM, Peelwheel wrote:

    No need to worry if Stern leaves...O&A on XM 202 just signed for 2 more years and they are much more entertaining than Stern. They are finding their groove. Price should hit $5 in 24 months.

  • Report this Comment On October 28, 2010, at 4:27 PM, ItAintCool wrote:

    O & A have not and never will be a significant impact on Satellite Radio in a way that Howard Stern has been. I agree that not every Stern listener will leave if Howard goes (I for one have a lifetime subscription). But that doesn't mean that 1 - 2 million won't leave to join whatever streaming app Howard provides. And I don't doubt that SIRIUS will recover from his departure, but it will take up to 3 years. The $270 million they may save over three years will not equal the $600 million they'll lose in subscriber revenue.

    I still don't believe he will leave. At least not for another 3 years. People need to put their emotions in check when it comes to Howard and look at the facts.

    The positives;

    1) He brings in millions of subscribers and is the generator of the most revenue for the company.

    2) He keeps SIRIUS-XM constantly in the headlines and in the public mind (e.g. David Arquette interview #2 yesterday).

    3) He is the largest generator of AD revenue for the company.

    4) His current 5 year - $500 million contract has been money well spent (even if you low-ball the amount of subscribers he brings in to 2 million)

    The negatives;

    1) He is the company's largest expense as an individual talent (unless you count actual hours on the radio vs. money spent - then Oprah is the company's largest expense)

    2) He creates an opinion by analysts that SIRI-XM has put all of their eggs into one basket and no other on-air talent can equal his draw. Making them seem weak if they lose him, eventually. So cutting him loose early may allow SIRI-XM to recover quickly.

    3) A renewal of the contract will probably require that he gets a larger share of the revenue on the back-end, taking away future greater potential profits by SIRI-XM in ancillary markets (e.g. Smart Phones).

    Right now, IMHO, the positives outweigh the negatives. Perhaps 3 years from now, it would be better to not have him. But not in the short-term.

  • Report this Comment On October 28, 2010, at 6:33 PM, waterinfo wrote:

    In response to the question of how high can SIRI go, I post the following, which is an update of information that I posted some time ago.

    Now, in late 2010, SiriusXM has more than 20,000,000 subscribers, and nearly every auto sold in the US has SiriusXM radio either as standard feature, or alternatively as a very low cost option, except maybe Porsche, who still has the nerve to charge $750 for the SiriusXM option. Of course, I’ve yet to see a 2010 or 2011 Porsche on any dealer’s lot that does not have that option already installed. There are still some marketing limitations placed upon the availability of factory installed SiriusXM receivers which need to be addressed by the company. For example, in many of the lower priced auto brands, SiriusXM receivers cannot be added as an individual option, but only part of “luxury” packages added only to the top of the line models. In other brands, SiriusXM receivers can only be added in conjunction with a factory installed Navigation system with a total price in the $1000 to $2500 range depending upon the auto manufacturer. The best way, short term for SiriusXM to address these limitations is to create a much more “aggressive”, all inclusive aftermarket installation program. Possibly mimicking DirectTV, with locally franchised, but independent SiriusXM installers that could offer an all inclusive package of hardware, installation, and multi-year service contact at prices that could be as little as zero depending upon the term of the contract. Ideally, this could include both installations in the customer’s auto(s) as well as in his home.

    In most cases, the delivery of a new auto with SiriusXM installed includes an initial trial subscription, and one of SiriusXM’s greatest challenges is to get essentially all of those trials to turn into revenue paying customers. However, even with a new car sales rate as low as 12 Million units per year, and even with a conversion rate of 50% to 60% of trial subscribers, SiriusXM should have a subscriber count close to 100 Million by 2020.

    Alternatively, let’s look at the total U.S. vehicle population. In 2007, there were 135,000,000 private cars, 99,000,000 2 Axle/4 tire trucks (e.g. Vans, SUVs, Pickups, etc), 7,000,000 small trucks, 2,000,000 large trucks, and 7,000,000 motor cycles, for a total of roughly 250,000,000 registered vehicles in the United States. If you are willing to accept the premise that over the next decade, like AM/FM radios, essentially every vehicle will also have satellite radio, Sirius might have more than 200,000,000 customers by 2020. That probably won’t happen on a paid subscription basis, but certainly could happen if SiriusXM makes a free service available of only channels that carry commercials to vehicles that have owners/operators who are unwilling to pay the modest subscription fee for access to all of the active channels. With innovations similar to the recently announced $60 SNAP SiriusXM receiver, the fact that many vehicles will still be on the road in 2020 without factory installed radios, will not be an impediment to nearly universal satellite radio capability. I would bet that within five years, SiriusXM will be able to market a satellite receiver, the size of a credit card, operated by a five year battery. SiriusXM will probably be able to profitably give it away with a one year subscription and you simply stick it to your dashboard.

    Despite this huge potential, what follows will assume the more modest target of 100,000,000 active radios by 2020.

    What about revenue? Right now SiriusXM is seeing gross revenue of only about $120/year per subscriber. Since subscription fees are much more than $10/month, where is the rest of the revenue? It is “free trial” subscribers, and in the subscribers that have been offered very aggressive incentives to keep their radios active. Over time, these incentives will not be needed as user’s perception of Satellite radio becomes more like consumer perception of Cable/Satellite TV. If someone tells you that they have no cable or satellite system at home, you probably think that they are lying!

    By 2020, it is more likely that gross revenue per subscriber will exceed $200 per year (current dollars) and not even close to the current value of $120. So by 2020, total revenue of $20 Billion would not be unrealistic. And this does not even include revenue from equipment sales (e.g. home receivers), from special “pay per hear” broadcasts, from auxiliary services (such as weather, routing, traffic, etc), or most of all, from additional advertising revenue from non-commercial free channels, which, if SiriusXM is smart, will be made available to anyone who has the receiver but chooses not to subscribe to the paid service. Radio spot advertising varies from as little as $50 per minute in Alaska to $3000 per minute in New York City. On each commercial SiriusXM channel, there are more than 100,000 minutes of advertising opportunity per year. If people are willing to pay between $50 and $3000 per minute for a spot ad in a single city, what might a spot be worth on a radio channel with a national footprint, and 100,000,000 listeners? Even at a modest $500 per minute, SiriusXM has an advertising revenue capacity of $50,000,000 per year per channel. If roughly half of the SiriusXM channel carry commercials (e.g. 100 channels), Sirius has a revenue opportunity of $5 Billion by 2020, a very large percentage of which will drop directly to the bottom line. (Also, keep in mind that nearly every household in the country is paying between $30 and $150 per month for cable or satellite TV service, and nearly every channel carries commercials.)

    What kind of profit could be generated from a $20 Billion revenue stream? Cost of revenue (which I guess is heavily royalty and talent based) certainly shouldn’t increase by more than 25 or 30 cents for each new revenue dollar. Let’s assume 30 cents. Thus, a revenue increase of $17 Billion (from today’s revenue levels) should increase the cost of revenue by about $5 Billion. R&D might increase from about $120 Million today to $400 Million. SG&A, currently running at about 20% of revenue should drop to no more than 12% of revenue, or about $2.4 Billion. All other expenses, currently running about 10% of revenue should drop to no more than 5% of revenue, or about $1 Billion. So let’s look at the top level income statement, circa 2020 for SiriusXM:

    Dollar amounts in Millions:

    Revenue $20,000

    Cost of Revenue $ 6,400

    Gross Profit $13,600

    R&D $ 400

    SG&A $2,400

    All Other $1,000

    EBITDA $9,800.

    By 2020, Sirius XM should be generating nearly $10 Billion in cash flow before interest and taxes. Now for the really beautiful part of the SiriusXM business. Unlike cable TV, unlike internet services, unlike wireless phone services, unlike terrestrial wireless entertainment services, new subscribers to SiriusXM services use no additional resources from the Sirius system. The same radio signals that serve 1000 subscribers will serve 1,000,000 subscribers. And the same radio signals that serve today’s 20 Million subscribers, will in principle, serve 2020’s 100 Million subscribers. In essence, given the large capital investment in today’s SiriusXM systems, the future capital cost per subscriber is very low. Most future capital costs will be used to add additional services, facilities, and programs, each designed to generate additional revenue. It is beyond the scope of this brief analysis to estimate SiriusXM future capital needs. But suffice it to say, that a company with an EBITA of nearly $10 Billion per year should have no trouble financing additional future capital needs. Even if today’s interest expense of about $300 M per year were to increase to $1 Billion per year, the SiriusXM operating profit by 2010 should be on the order of $9 Billion, or about $2.30 per currently existing SiriusXM share.

    To get from today’s nearly break even operating income, to an operating income of $2.30 per share, in a relatively smooth trajectory over the next 10 years, would represent a profit growth rate of more than 30% per year. What might the stock market pay for a company growing profits at more than 30% a year, with a huge, relatively captive customer base? Twelve times earnings, twenty, maybe forty? Even at twenty times earnings, SiriusXM shares in 2020 should be selling for at least $46 per share. Spread evenly (which of course it never would happen that way) means that the shares should increase an average of about $5 per share per year between 2010 and 2020. More likely, once the investing public realizes what a gem SiriusXM really is, the multiple will probably jump to 50 or 100 times soon, and taper off toward a multiple of 15 or 20 times by 2020. Along the way, SiriusXM will likely use its large free cash flow to buy back shares, further increasing the per share earnings and stock value. Clearly, recent events, including the refinancing of $700 Million near term 11% debt to longer term 7% debt is indicative of the strength of the company’s cash flows and management execution.

    So, the answer is. How high can SiriusXM go........$5/share in a year, $40+/share in 10 years.

  • Report this Comment On October 28, 2010, at 6:34 PM, doubting wrote:

    Siri stock can go as high as the sky because technically NOW there is nothing in its way. The fundmanetals are solid and the potential is phenomenal. How do you value a company with no serious competition and unrivaled great product? I expect siri stock at $2 by the end of 2010, at 4 by the end of 2011, at $5-$6 by the end of 2012 and at $8-10$ by the end of 2014. Mark my word. I suspect that I may even be undervaluing the stock.

  • Report this Comment On October 28, 2010, at 8:01 PM, Pantaloon007 wrote:

    I will definitely hope for what's above, and going against the grain as seen on thestreet.com is laughable, but I'll say more like $2.50 by the 2012 election which is good enough for me. I rode one Sirius rush, and a fall, and look to see a rush again. Long and adding since '05

  • Report this Comment On October 28, 2010, at 8:45 PM, pete163 wrote:

    I'm not sure where Sirius is truly going at this point. I have owned Sirius many times and made some money, not a lot but some. The pure fear of having my head handed to me as it has happen many times before with blue chip Companies. I look at what Cramer states over and over, when a lot of people start to like Sirius it's time to sell. Since I have been following this rule I have not lost a cent. Good luck all hope it work out for you.

  • Report this Comment On October 28, 2010, at 9:40 PM, long4siri wrote:

    Cramer's IQ is 1 below his shoe size, I'm guesing a 4. You could hang his shoes from your rear view mirror. His opinion is based on his own hype. Right now his opinion is at a loss, and I'm sorry for his followers but so are they financially. Siri Long!

  • Report this Comment On October 29, 2010, at 9:17 AM, JamesRobertDobbs wrote:

    JPDemers, I doubt Sirius has any idea how many people are dedicated Howard listeners. The satellite technology is all one-way, satellite to receiver. There's no listener stats fed back to Sirius.

    That being said, I think the hand-wringing about Howard leaving is overrated. Yes, he brought in a lot of subscribers, but the nature of Sirius' subscriber base has likely changed dramatically over the last five years, as more people become familiar with Sirius installed in their purchased cars, rather than following Howard to whatever medium he uses. He certainly isn't worth another $100mil/year ... Sirius can use that cash for better things, IMO.

  • Report this Comment On October 29, 2010, at 1:26 PM, jmsspi wrote:

    My wife subscribes to Sirius and loves it, especially the Coffee House station. She does not care for H Stern at all.

    On the other hand, I run a charter boat called Emma Rose out of NC and purchased Sirius Weather for my Raymarine navigation system. It is the neatest product and allows me not only to view surface water temperatures in real time to locate the most likely potential for catching fish, it is so much more clear than radar to enable me to track storms and avoid bad weather. www.emmarose.com

    Just think when they merge this technology with car smart displays that will allow every driver to see what the weather is going to be like ahead of them. That feature will help them in not only selling more subscriptions, but will provide a much needed safety criteria for many.

    My broker discouraged me from buying the stock at 60 cents when I first thought about it, but we jumped in at $1. I believe it is a great performer and will continues to be for a long time. I sure hope all these positive predictions are correct.

  • Report this Comment On October 29, 2010, at 2:53 PM, multi007 wrote:

    WATERINFO - please provide a cliff's notes version of your post. Dont have time to read a novel :)

    I hope Stern stays, but even if he does go, its a WIN/WIN for the stock.

  • Report this Comment On October 29, 2010, at 5:05 PM, waterinfo wrote:

    To JMSSPI - I am also a boater, and have Sirius on board. (My car has XM). Whenever I'm on the boat, Sirius is playing, but never Howard Stern. I'm not a prude.....just think is drivel is obnoxious. Anyway, I agree, there are a number of very high value services that can be offerered through the SiriusXM constellation, that once the company is less focused primarily on subscriber growth, will create many new, very high margin revenue opportunities. Everyone that I know that fishes or dives from their boats, has the Sirius weather feature.

  • Report this Comment On October 29, 2010, at 5:07 PM, waterinfo wrote:

    To Multi007 - The cliff notes is the last line of my post from yesterday......

    So, the answer is. How high can SiriusXM go........$5/share in a year, $40+/share in 10 years.

    Hope you all had fun today.

  • Report this Comment On October 31, 2010, at 8:53 AM, Rebeldoug wrote:

    Car sales and Siri correlate. Car sales up Siri up.

  • Report this Comment On November 03, 2010, at 11:37 PM, madhat007 wrote:

    howard Stern is an insult to the whole comany and totally worthless!!! his humor is degrading and sloppy!!he for some reason made it! he used to be funny! now he just is a trademark for lost degenerates that have nothing better to do than amuse themselves with worthless distractions and do absolutely nothing for anyone except themselves...Firing him would not be good enough...let him take his loser audience and the company would save alot of money and hassle and there are definitely way more talented people around at a far bette price!!! hello!!!

  • Report this Comment On November 05, 2010, at 1:31 PM, garp4u wrote:

    I don't usually post, but I really feel that the Sirius XM model cannot survive. Just as changes in technology has made Blockbuster obsolete, web applications such as Pandora.com will kill Sirius XM's business. It is only a matter of time. Ask young music listeners about free music apps. Sirius XM will only attract the serious followers of sports radio or specialty products like Howard Stern. That is, IF they can retain exclusive rights for the long term. In the short term, I do expect SIRI to be run up by market enthusiasm. Just don't expect SIRI to be a market leader in ten years, if they are still around.

  • Report this Comment On November 05, 2010, at 3:18 PM, nwcyberpro wrote:

    That Sirius XM has potential is true, however competing technologies are and will be a threat to any massive future gains for this stock. I buy into Sirius when the stock dives (which it has been known to do) and sell when I've doubled my investment. I have Sirius XM in my van. I enjoy the sports and some of the music channels. I must admit though that the iPod dominates my listening habits while traveling. I load up hours of my own choice in music and roll with it. No dead zones, no depending on someone else choosing my music. Add competing technologies to the question of Stern staying, or leaving and you have a recipe for another fall in stock prices. Will the model survive the test of time, or not depends on Sirius continuously seeking out and embracing new forms of entertainment and services to broadcast. The competition will not be sitting idle while Sirius continues to grow and satellites need to be upgraded or replaced over time. Sirius XM has the potential to be a great long term investment, but only if it continues to be innovative in its business model and marketing strategies.

  • Report this Comment On November 07, 2010, at 7:46 AM, usafjetdriver wrote:

    I agree with garp4u. I have XM so I'm not sure about Sirius, but XM is disgusting anymore! It sure has an awful lot of commercials for "commercial-free radio." They have basically turned into a pay-for-FM platform. Not only that, but a year or so ago, they TOOK AWAY OUR ONLINE STREAMING capability!! It *was* included, now you have to pay extra. Even old subscribers weren't grandfathered into online streaming for free. I'm no stock / finance guy, but I am a consumer, and I am getting ready to leave XM because I hate them. They are greedy. I have Pandora on my phone, and it does very well in the car.

  • Report this Comment On November 07, 2010, at 4:07 PM, freemanskrybe wrote:

    I have followed Howard Stern's career for over 25 years. He commands an huge male audience and our age far exceeds our maturity level, so don't think you are relying on highscool kids to maintain subscriptions. Behind the antics is a pioneer and a success driven entertainer with an unbelievably loyal audience. SIRI was my first stock purchases ever, at $2.25. I lowered my cost basis buying in at some scary lows, also buying into a lifetime Sirius subscription. Why? Because I believe in the man's vision, drive, committment to his fans and his work ethic. Everthing he has touched has turned to gold: Bestselling books, a box office hit and a radio giant (#1 in EVERY market he entered with terrestrial radio - advertisers in tow). My guess: Howard will remain with Serius / XM awhile longer and hopefully, the company will work with new talent and technology, as a one-tick-pony like Stern won't carry them forever. For the short term, Howards subscribers are absolutely crucial to low attrition ratios and income stream. I won't be leaving because of the lifetime subscription, but I will follow him to a new medium, along with a massive and loyal listening base. I am no expert in the field of trading securities, but I am an expert in Howard's career and the results of all of his previous endeavors. This is one scenario where the talent is deeply invested in the success of the medium itself.

  • Report this Comment On November 07, 2010, at 4:39 PM, NOTvuffett wrote:

    I have no interest in SIRI's product, but others do. SIRI has been written about endlessly here, usually with comparisons to companies not really in the same business. Apples and oranges anyone?

    It is tiresome that we have to hear about 'Howard' carrying the service. Here is an audio clip of 'Howard' doing a segment called 'black jeopardy':

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IXHz0cTGHfQ

    Lots more where that came from- if anything, 'Howard' seems like a liability to me.

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