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7 Reasons to Worry About Next Week

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Don't let those Thanksgiving leftovers go down the wrong way.

I realize that many of you may be out scoring doorbuster deals this morning or still trying to make sense of yesterday's overload of NFL games.

Your mind may be elsewhere. Unfortunately, you should probably be paying attention to the market. We may be several quarters removed from the recession, but not all companies are bouncing back.

Let's go over a few of the blue chips and seemingly recession-proof companies where analysts see the arrows pointing down on the bottom line next week. Some of the names may surprise you.

Company

Latest Quarter EPS (Estimated)

Year-Ago Quarter EPS

Del Monte (NYSE: DLM  ) $0.35 $0.36
Shanda Interactive (Nasdaq: SNDA  ) $0.50 $0.90
Shanda Games (Nasdaq: GAME  ) $0.18 $0.24
Collective Brands (NYSE: PSS  ) $0.51 $0.61
Novell (Nasdaq: NOVL  ) $0.07 $0.11
Big Lots (NYSE: BIG  ) $0.24 $0.27
Royal Bank of Canada (NYSE: RY  ) $0.96 $1.03

Source: Thomson Reuters.

Clearing the table
Several companies will post lower earnings next week, but these are just a few of the names that really jump out at me.

Let's start with Del Monte, the food giant that goes beyond its signature produce items. The supermarket staple producer also cranks out Contadina pastas, Gravy Train dog food, and Meow Mix chow for cats. We all have to eat, and we all love our pets. However, the pros see a slight dip in profitability and revenue this time.

Shanda Interactive has been one of China's dot-com darlings for years, and the success of its online gaming initiatives led it to spin out its Shanda Games appendage. Sadly, things aren't going well for parent and offshoot.

Shanda's shortcomings don't mean that China's gaming niche is in trouble. Investors just need to be more selective. Shanda is the last of the five companies with major skin in the online gaming realm to report on the three months that ended in September, and a few of its rivals have stepped up with respectable bottom-line growth.

Novell's report may seem irrelevant to some. Didn't the networking pioneer just agree to be taken out at $6.10 a pop? Who cares if it unleashes demons from the underworld or strikes oil in the parking lot at headquarters? Well, investors can't stop paying attention. Deals come undone. Prices get renegotiated. Bidding wars emerge. Novell's fiscal performance can steer this scenario one way or the other. Analysts see a drop in quarterly profitability, and that may help explain why Novell had to settle for such a cheap exit strategy.

Collective Brands is always a surprising name to see on this list. It's the parent company of Payless Shoe Source, the small box hub for discounted footwear. Who doesn't like to pay less for shoes, especially in an iffy economy?

It's not just a problem at Payless, though. Big Lots -- the larger-box retailer that loads up on closeouts and overstocks -- isn't getting it done on the bottom line, too. An optimist can argue that retailers are doing so well that there isn't as much distressed inventory making its way to Big Lots at ridiculous price points. I'm not so sure about that.

Finally, we have Royal Bank of Canada coming up short. Investors are probably used to banks clocking in all over the map, but Royal Bank's projected shortfall in earnings is still noteworthy. Several of its Canadian banking peers will also be reporting next week, and many are expected to post higher net income than they did a year earlier.

Why the long face, short-seller?
These reports aren't likely to be pretty, but there's still room for glimmers of optimism within the pessimism.

Investors are already braced for the worst with these reports. If there is an upside to this grim list, it's that lower profitability is already baked into next week's reports. It actually opens the door for unexpected surprises.

The more I think about it, the less worried I become.

Editor's note: A previous version of this story used earnings data that failed to take Trina Solar's 2-for-1 stock split into account. The Fool regrets the error.

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Shanda Interactive is a Motley Fool Rule Breakers choice. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors.

Longtime Fool contributor Rick Munarriz wonders if his contrarian heart will ever be happy. He does not own shares in any of the companies in this story. He is also part of the Rule Breakers newsletter research team, seeking out tomorrow's ultimate growth stocks a day early. The Fool has a disclosure policy.


Comments from our Foolish Readers

Help us keep this a respectfully Foolish area! This is a place for our readers to discuss, debate, and learn more about the Foolish investing topic you read about above. Help us keep it clean and safe. If you believe a comment is abusive or otherwise violates our Fool's Rules, please report it via the Report this Comment Report this Comment icon found on every comment.

  • Report this Comment On November 26, 2010, at 6:36 PM, scottysprecher wrote:

    The author is probably correct that Trina Solar will not beat it;s year ago earning's of $1.29 a share.It will easily beat the analyst's estimate of .89 a share.The KICKER is and one questions the authors motives is that on Jan 20th of last year,TSL had a 2 for 1 stock split. Rick tell us was this really just an oversight?It certainly is misleading data that you provide and not doing anyone a service.

  • Report this Comment On November 27, 2010, at 7:20 AM, spiritcraft1 wrote:

    in fact, TSL will earn close to double year ago split adjusted eps of $0.65. TSL is a rare investment. Top notch management, has a 67% 5 year growth history, will double eps this year, has a very bankable and trusted product and as a tier one supplier has perhaps the lowest cost product in the solar PV world. In reality, TSL trades at a forward PE around 5 and has a miniscule PEG ratio. There are not many stocks of healthy and trusted high growth companies trading at such deep value.

  • Report this Comment On November 27, 2010, at 12:12 PM, Alexinthebox55 wrote:

    Ok, first off, are any of these companies going to be around for 150 years? Are they built from the ground up, ready to brave any storm that is thrown at them, without the fear of a hurricane upending their ship?

    With the exception of MAYBE the Royal Bank of Canada, which out of neccesity will flourish in Canada, none of these companies will be around in 150 years! I'm willing to bet anyone $1,000,000 cash on this! I will write you a check!

    Next, we as foolish investors all know that market timing is a strategy used by hedge fund managers and speculators. We're not trying to spin a quick $500 and walk away from a trade, paying capital gains taxes out the nose. We're trying to pick foolish companies, with unfoolish bottom lines and hopes for the future. We're using a buy and hold long term strategy, looking for that next 10 bagger.

    Mr. Munarriz, don't take offense at my comment please, I'm just voicing my foolish opinion.

    An

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Related Tickers

5/25/2012 4:01 PM
PSS $21.35 Up +0.03 +0.14%
Collective Brands… CAPS Rating: **
RY $48.83 Down -1.18 -2.36%
Royal Bank of Cana… CAPS Rating: ****
SNDA $0.00 Down +0.00 +0.00%
Shanda Interactive… CAPS Rating: ***
NOVL.DL $6.10 Down +0.00 +0.00%
Novell, Inc. CAPS Rating: **
BIG $37.30 Up +1.55 +4.34%
Big Lots, Inc. CAPS Rating: ***
DLM.DL $0.00 Down +0.00 +0.00%
Del Monte Foods Co… CAPS Rating: ****
GAME $4.29 Up +0.01 +0.23%
Shanda Games Limit… CAPS Rating: ***

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