Is NorthStar Realty Finance the Perfect Stock?

Everyone would love to find the perfect stock. But will you ever really find a stock that gives you everything you could possibly want?

One thing's for sure: If you don't look, you'll never find truly great investments. So let's first take a look at what you'd want to see from a perfect stock, and then decide if NorthStar Realty Finance (NYSE: NRF  ) fits the bill.

The quest for perfection
When you're looking for great stocks, you have to do your due diligence. It's not enough to rely on a single measure, because a stock that looks great based on one factor may turn out to be horrible in other ways. The best stocks, however, excel in many different areas, which all come together to make up a very attractive picture.

Some of the most basic yet important things to look for in a stock are:

  • Growth. Expanding businesses show healthy revenue growth. While past growth is no guarantee that revenue will keep rising, it's certainly a better sign than a stagnant top line.
  • Margins. Higher sales don't mean anything if a company can't turn them into profits. Strong margins ensure a company is able to turn revenue into profit.
  • Balance sheet. Debt-laden companies have banks and bondholders competing with shareholders for management's attention. Companies with strong balance sheets don't have to worry about the distraction of debt.
  • Money-making opportunities. Companies need to be able to turn their resources into profitable business opportunities. Return on equity helps measure how well a company is finding those opportunities.
  • Valuation. You can't afford to pay too much for even the best companies. Earnings multiples are simple, but using normalized figures gives you a sense of how valuation fits into a longer-term context.
  • Dividends. Investors are demanding tangible proof of profits, and there's nothing more tangible than getting a check every three months. Companies with solid dividends and strong commitments to increasing payouts treat shareholders well.

With those factors in mind, let's take a closer look at NorthStar.

Factor What We Want to See Actual Pass or Fail?
Growth 5-Year Annual Revenue Growth > 15% 28.9% pass
  1-Year Revenue Growth > 12% 2% fail
Margins Gross Margin > 35% 60.6% pass
  Net Margin > 15% NM fail
Balance Sheet Debt to Equity < 50% 229.6% fail
  Current Ratio > 1.3 11.22 pass
Opportunities Return on Equity > 15% (20.5%) fail
Valuation Normalized P/E < 20 NM fail
Dividends Current Yield > 2% 9.1% pass
  5-Year Dividend Growth > 10% (12.9%) fail
       
  Total Score   4 out of 10

Source: Capital IQ, a division of Standard and Poor's. NM = not meaningful; NorthStar Realty had negative net profits over the periods measured. Total score = number of passes.

With a score of 4, NorthStar isn't lighting up the night sky with its performance. Despite a strong dividend, the company is in an extremely risky business with plenty of downside potential.

NorthStar is organized as a real-estate investment trust and is involved in commercial real-estate debt and net-lease investments. That's markedly different from what mortgage REITs Annaly Capital (NYSE: NLY  ) and American Capital Agency (Nasdaq: AGNC  ) are doing, as instead of simply trying to play interest rate spreads in the mortgage market, NorthStar actually has at least some exposure to the health of the businesses that enter into its leases. Those commitments range from big customers like Lockheed Martin (NYSE: LMT  ) to small convenience stores and fast-food restaurants, which have held up surprisingly well during the recession.

As an investment, NorthStar has given shareholders a rocky ride. Earnings have posted big surprises on both the positive and negative sides in recent quarters. Shares have bounced nicely but are still well below where they traded at their 2007 peak. And with the future still uncertain, investors can expect that volatility to continue.

NorthStar isn't the perfect stock . But as a speculation on commercial real-estate activity, it may be a reasonable play for investors who are so inclined.

Keep searching
No stock is a sure thing, but some stocks are a lot closer to perfect than others. By looking for the perfect stock, you'll go a long way toward improving your investing prowess and learning how to separate out the best investments from the rest.

Click here to add NorthStar Realty to My Watchlist, which can find all of our Foolish analysis on it and all your other stocks.

Fool contributor Dan Caplinger doesn't own shares of the companies mentioned in this article. The Fool owns shares of Annaly Capital Management. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Fool has a disclosure policy.


Read/Post Comments (2) | Recommend This Article (8)

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  • Report this Comment On December 09, 2010, at 2:27 PM, rettopyrrah wrote:

    Have you looked at their Balance Sheet? Last time I looked which was a few quarters ago, without fair valuing their liabilities (which under perverse accounting rules allow you to show appreciation if your borrowing risk goes up because your rate is better than you now deserve) they have negative equity! I have invested in their preferred NRFPB and NRFPA giving me a very high yield and some upside appreciation opportunity if they stay in business - I think they will byut they have a big hole to crawl out of.

  • Report this Comment On December 10, 2010, at 10:03 AM, madmarks wrote:

    If you wait for all of those stats to get to the "Pass" column you already missed the major uptick in value. The key to investing in my opinion is identifying stocks that are going up, NOT stocks that have gone up.

    Buy and Hold on NRF. Dividend itself is worth it.

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