11 Lumps of Coal to Leave for Good

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If Santa Claus had the spare time to dabble in investing, he might consider leaving the following stocks in naughty kids' stockings in lieu of lumps of coal:

  1. Talbots: The boomers are going bust, and stocks that target that demographic have a difficult battle ahead. Talbots still faces an uphill battle to get customers back in the door. Last quarter's nasty tidings about holiday sales suggest that pessimism is still warranted here.
  2. SUPERVALU (NYSE: SVU  ) : Great Atlantic & Pacific recently filed for bankruptcy, illustrating how difficult the grocery industry has become for weak players. SUPERVALU has formidable competition in that space, and is most certainly not a stronger contender, given rotten earnings and sales.
  3. BP (NYSE: BP  ) : BP gave us some of the most shameful moments in 2010. Although Tony Hayward, with his terminal case of foot-in-mouth disease, is no longer at the helm, a company that showed such disgraceful crisis management has some serious problems to address. The lawsuit the U.S. government has filed against BP for disregarding safety regulations when it drilled the blown-out well that sullied the Gulf of Mexico can't be good news, either.
  4. Crocs (Nasdaq: CROX  ) : Crocs may have escaped the endangered list after its major difficulties several years ago, but this year's 230% increase in Crocs' stock price means that investors may be cruisin' for a bruisin' again. Is Crocs' fashion sense and expected growth really worth paying 32 times trailing earnings? I think not. Perhaps some investors never learn.
  5. Wendy's/Arby's (NYSE: WEN  ) : There's a leader in the fast-food space, and Wendy's/Arby's ain't it. Its failure to turn in the last 12 months doesn't foretell an appetizing future, either.
  6. Sears Holdings (Nasdaq: SHLD  ) : Too many discount retailers outclass Sears Holdings by a long shot now, and it's not high on the list of places consumers think to frequent when they're out bargain-hunting. As for the increasingly unlikely "real estate play" argument, frankly, I'd sooner believe in Santa Claus.
  7. Sirius XM (Nasdaq: SIRI  ) : Technology marches on, and Sirius XM's technology was cutting-edge a decade ago. These days, consumers have a ton of options for their media consumption, and "satrad" just isn't as rad as it used to be. Sirius never has proven this can be a consistently profitable model, even with four quarters of trailing earnings notwithstanding. And it's still got way too much debt, folks.
  8. RadioShack (NYSE: RSH  ) : One of the most exciting moments for "The Shack" in the last year was the idle rumor that somebody might acquire it. My question: What kind of sicko actually would?
  9. J.C. Penney: Like the aforementioned Sears, J.C. Penney's just not top of mind for bargain-hunting shoppers anymore. It hasn't reported an annual increase in sales since the year ended February 2007. Investors ought to run to stronger rivals' shares.
  10. Gannett: The newspaper industry's got serious problems, given readers' steady conversion to Internet news sources. However, Gannett's also got major national competition from the likes of The Wall Street Journal and The New York Times, and its debt-to-capital ratio of 51.6% sounds dangerous given its consistently falling revenue.
  11. Warner Music Group: Falling sales, operating losses, and a debt-to-capital ratio of 112.2% all sound sour notes. The future seems to point to increasing losses for old-school media dinosaurs like this one, unless they start to innovate.

Those are my ideas for 11 lumps of coal investors should hope to avoid as 2010 draws to a close. Do you agree? What stock do you think is a lump of coal? Leave your thoughts in the comments box below.

The Fool owns shares of SUPERVALU. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days.

Alyce Lomax does not own shares of any of the companies mentioned. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Read/Post Comments (85) | Recommend This Article (36)

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Help us keep this a respectfully Foolish area! This is a place for our readers to discuss, debate, and learn more about the Foolish investing topic you read about above. Help us keep it clean and safe. If you believe a comment is abusive or otherwise violates our Fool's Rules, please report it via the Report this Comment Report this Comment icon found on every comment.

  • Report this Comment On December 23, 2010, at 12:44 PM, JeanDavid wrote:

    I remember when, in the 1950s, Radio Shack was just one store in Boston (IIRC). They were quite good with a comprehensive selection of electronics. Then Tandy Leather bought them, and it has been downhill ever since.

  • Report this Comment On December 23, 2010, at 1:22 PM, TTVMC wrote:

    Read about Net-Neutrality and then re-evaluate your take on Sirius. This article just proves this site has does no research on anything and just keeps saying what they've said in the past, ESPECIALLY about Sirius. It's getting annoying and you guys are losing credibility (or whatevers left of it)

  • Report this Comment On December 23, 2010, at 1:37 PM, stlouieray100 wrote:

    I agree with TTVMC! There may be some hurdles that Sirius has to overcome, but geez, they've come light years from where they were, just in the past year. Give consideration to all of the subscribers that they have gained, and all of the OEM relationships that they have formed.

    To me, they look like they've turned the corner versus continued on some type of diving free-fall. Why you so freakin' hateful Alyce?

  • Report this Comment On December 23, 2010, at 1:52 PM, doubting wrote:


    In your case "ignorance is not a bliss". I am not going to waste my time on you. Let us re-address siri next year at this time. If I am wrong that the company will show great performance and the stock will be well above $2.00, I will apologize. Would you have the guts to do so? I doubt it. Why? Because people like you have an agenda and no conscience. So far, all your siri opinions proved to be trash.

  • Report this Comment On December 23, 2010, at 2:18 PM, motleymarty wrote:

    I am not a SIRI-basher; go long, watch it launch into the investing stratosphere. Are you unaware of the recent RICO suit regarding naked short selling, orchestrated by Goldman & Merrill re SIRI etc.? I first heard Sirius radio in October at a Pizzeria Uno. I was amazed. I started researching SIRI. I am now a SIRIUSLY happy camper. I don't have cable TV - excellent radio programming is much better - don't have to sit on my duff in front of the idiot box. All the folks who lost out buying when the price was being manipulated - well, I'm sorry. Net neutrality - done deal, see ya Pandora etc. SIRI performance is enhanced by new car sales, yes, but it is playing in retail stores, restaurants, malls, Starbucks, hospitals, dentist's offices, yadda yadda. It is also likely to be snapped up by Apple or Liberty Media.

    Commercial-free music--I never thought I'd see the day.

  • Report this Comment On December 23, 2010, at 2:26 PM, siriuslyrick wrote:

    Alyce, have you ever tried a cross-country drive with anything other than satrad? Service is spotty at best, Channel and content selection can be very limited, and the "free" streaming radio is about to start costing quite a bit more.

    I gave up my home satellite dish because most of the content was garbage, and switched to Sirius because I listen to a lot of music of different genres. Having a dock in the car and truck for the Sirius receiver just adds to the enjoyment.

    Nicholas Negroponte said it years back: for truly mobile applications, satellite is the way to go.

    Long Sirius, and up 70% since I bought in.

  • Report this Comment On December 23, 2010, at 2:28 PM, andyjpm wrote:

    You are so wrong about SIRI! This stock just keeps making me and others who bought it money. I don't know why you would trash it. 187% gain since last year, yeah that seems like a bad stock to own. Does a company have to have cutting edge technology to make it profitable? By the way, as I am writing this SIRI just made me another $3600.00 today! You should really think or do research before you write things like this, people might actually believe you. Thank god I didn't!!!!!!

  • Report this Comment On December 23, 2010, at 2:35 PM, redsncars wrote:

    I would call a stock that more than doubled my holdings this year and will do so again next year a lump of gold not a lump of coal. Long SIRI.

  • Report this Comment On December 23, 2010, at 2:56 PM, southernbeachguy wrote:

    Gosh Alyce, I generally don't say anything bad about people, but in your surmise of Sirus...... your an IDIOT. There is no better product out there than Sirus/XM. It has great programming, 20 million Paying subscribers and profitable for the past 4 quarters (most companies can't say that this year).

  • Report this Comment On December 23, 2010, at 3:04 PM, JamesRobertDobbs wrote:

    "Sirius never has proven this can be a consistently profitable model, even with four quarters of trailing earnings notwithstanding."

    Ah. Spoken like a true Fool.

  • Report this Comment On December 23, 2010, at 3:13 PM, uscfan88 wrote:

    Wow, what can I say that everybody else hasn't already said. Maybe this....

    Since I was turned on to by by my commanding officer in the Army more than 13 years ago, I have recommended to others in the same manner, bragging about how in tune they are with what's going on in the world of investing. I now have to reassess that belief, with people like Alyce writing columns without doing research. In reality, how much research is actually needed in this case? All you really need to do is use logical reasoning and common business sense. Missing something there, Alyce?

  • Report this Comment On December 23, 2010, at 3:14 PM, waterinfo wrote:

    You can't be serious (or is it sirius) Alyce!!!!!!!! I disagree with all of your lumps of coal but the worst is what you said about SiriusXM. I'll post another comment about some of the others, but..............

    With SiriusXM setting a new closing high since the market crash, maybe we should stop arguing about what the stock might do in the next few months, and look at the prospects for the company over the next decade.

    SiriusXM clearly has a monopoly on the Satellite Radio and Data distribution business. The management sucessfully argued with the FCC, FTC and SEC that it is not really a monopoly, because there are other forms of (non-satellite based) competition, and the government bought the argument and let Sirius and XM merge.

    Internet based distribution of streaming media (like radio programming) will never be compettive in quality or cost to satellite distribution. One the Wireless Internet carriers are all forced to volume based charges for large volume users (as AT&T has already done) listening to radio program over your wireless internet device will cost at least $5 per HOUR.

    So what happens over the next decade.

    In 2007 there were almost 250,000,000 licensed motor vehicles in the United States, almost all of them with AM/FM radios. Over the next decade most of these vehicles will have gone through a replacement cycle. Also, we have just seen the results of the 2010 Census, and the U.S. population has grown by 10% since 2000. Certainly if the population grows another 10% by 2020, the number of vehicles will grow by at least as much.

    So by 2020 there will probably be about 275,000,000 licensed motor vehicles. My personal bet, is that just like AM/FM radios now, nearly every one of these vehicles will also have a radio capable of receiving the SiriusXM broadcasts. If just 35% of thse actually become subscribers, that will be 100,000,000 SiriusXM subscribers by 2020.

    At $200 per year of revenue (2020 dollars), the company's revenue will be on the order of $20 Billion/year. Add a little for advertising (maybe $5 Billion), equipment sales (maybe a billion), special event fees (another billion), specialized data services (easily another billion), and a few other revenue sources that I'm sure that they will dream up), total revenue of $30 Billion would not be out of sight.

    However, let's just be conservative, and assume 2020 revenue of $20 Billion.

    What kind of profit could be generated from a $20 Billion revenue stream?

    Cost of revenue (which I guess is heavily royalty and talent based) certainly shouldn’t increase by more than 25 or 30 cents for each new revenue dollar. Let’s assume 30 cents. Thus, a revenue increase of $17 Billion (from today’s revenue levels) should increase the cost of revenue by about $5 Billion. R&D might increase from about $120 Million today to $400 Million. SG&A, currently running at about 20% of revenue should drop to no more than 12% of revenue, or about $2.4 Billion. All other expenses, currently running about 10% of revenue should drop to no more than 5% of revenue, or about $1 Billion. So let’s look at the top level income statement, circa 2020 for SiriusXM:

    Dollar amounts in Millions:

    Revenue $20,000

    Cost of Revenue $ 6,400

    Gross Profit $13,600

    R&D $ 400

    SG&A $2,400

    All Other $1,000

    EBITDA $9,800.

    By 2020, Sirius XM should be generating nearly $10 Billion in cash flow before interest and taxes. Now for the really beautiful part of the SiriusXM business.

    Unlike cable TV, unlike internet services, unlike wireless phone services, unlike terrestrial wireless entertainment services, new subscribers to SiriusXM services use no additional resources from the Sirius system. The same radio signals that serve 1000 subscribers will serve 1,000,000 subscribers. And the same radio signals that serve today’s 20 Million subscribers, will in principle, serve 2020’s 100 Million subscribers. In essence, given the large capital investment in today’s SiriusXM systems, the future capital cost per subscriber is very low. Most future capital costs will be used to add additional services, facilities, and programs, each designed to generate additional revenue. It is beyond the scope of this brief analysis to estimate SiriusXM future capital needs. But suffice it to say, that a company with an EBITA of nearly $10 Billion per year should have no trouble financing additional future capital needs.

    Even if today’s interest expense of about $300 M per year were to increase to $1 Billion per year, the SiriusXM operating profit by 2010 should be on the order of $9 Billion, or about $2.30 per currently existing SiriusXM share.

    To get from today’s nearly break even operating income, to an operating income of $2.30 per share, in a relatively smooth trajectory over the next 10 years, would represent a profit growth rate of more than 30% per year. What might the stock market pay for a company growing profits at more than 30% a year, with a huge, relatively captive customer base? Twelve times earnings, twenty, maybe forty? Even at twenty times earnings, SiriusXM shares in 2020 should be selling for at least $46 per share.

    Spread evenly (which of course it never would happen that way) means that the shares should increase an average of about $5 per share per year between 2010 and 2020. More likely, once the investing public realizes what a gem SiriusXM really is, the multiple will probably jump to 50 or 100 times soon, and taper off toward a multiple of 15 or 20 times by 2020.

    Along the way, SiriusXM will likely use its large free cash flow to buy back shares, further increasing the per share earnings and stock value. Clearly, recent events, including the refinancing of $700 Million near term 11% debt to longer term 7% debt and re-signing their most listened to talent are indicative of the strength of the company’s cash flows and management execution.

    If SIRI is going to reach $46/share by 2020, I have placed a large personal bet that it will reach $5/share by 2012.

  • Report this Comment On December 23, 2010, at 3:41 PM, waterinfo wrote:

    I wrote above about SiriusXM, now let me talk about the rest of your list. Overall, this is an outstanding list of market turnaround candidates.

    Most of the "good" stocks on the NYSE and Nasdaq markets are approaching historic highs, and have attracted investment from investors who were scared away by the market collapse of 2008-2009, and look for the strongest and best companies as a "safe" way to get back in. This has been the case for money managers, mutual fund managers, and very much so for retail investors.

    Second tier stocks (essentially all of your lumps of coal) have survived economic collapse (e.g. they are still in business) but were not as strategically positioned to ride through the collapse in full glory. Now, as the economy improves, they have been oversold, under recommended, under invested, and often ignored.

    There are the prime ingredients for a sharp turnaround. I would invest in every one of your lumps of coal, with the possible exception of Gannett, where the business model of newpaper publication will never recover.

    Six of your lumps are traditional retailers with different profiles.....Talbots, Crocs, Wendys, Radio Shack, Sears, and Pennys. They all occupy prime real estate, have large customer bases, good (granted, maybe not always great) products. Most importantly, their fixed overhead is being covered (otherwise they wouldn't still be in business), so as sales improve a large percentage of each recovery revenue dollar will fall to the bottom line. That will be noticed in a quarter or two and these six stocks will bounce.

    Supervalue, while a retailer is different than the other six retailers. With more than $40 Billion of annual revenue, and a dominant presence in some of their markets, they aren't going away. Improved automation taking place at most supermarkets, lowering costs, and improving margins will make all supermarkets attractive, but this one will bounce stongly off the bottom in 2011.

    Sure, BP could have handled an awful crisis much better. But BP is a huge multi-national oil conglomerate. Oil is already getting close to $100 per barrel will probably get much higher before it starts to drop again, and BP will continue to deliver strong profits.

    Warner Music has a lot of intrinsic value in its portfolio of copyrights as well as distribution channels. Company management is well heeled and well connected and this company isn't going anywhere but up.....probably to $10/share in 2011.

    I placed a separate post on Sirius, which you are the most wrong about. You really need to do some research on this one. Probably $5 in 2012.

    The only one that I think that you might be correct on is Gannett. My only contact with this company is when I get a free USA Today at a hotel........I certainly wouldn't pay for it. No content, no depth, almost no ads. This can't keep up for much longer.

    Oh well, Alyce, one out of eleven ain't bad (for a Motley Fool).

  • Report this Comment On December 23, 2010, at 3:48 PM, colin54 wrote:

    I bought SIRI when Malone put in a few $100M .. wish I'd have put in more!

  • Report this Comment On December 23, 2010, at 4:21 PM, ThongLover854 wrote:

    Rediculous article...siri is one of the best performing stocks of the year and one of the biggest turnarounds sad that uninformed people and keyboards sometimes merge...

  • Report this Comment On December 23, 2010, at 4:28 PM, mlrinc10 wrote:

    Alyce, Alyce, Alyce.......

    I hope YOU get a big lump of coal as your chistmas bonus. It's all you deserve for the idiocy of including SiriXM on the list!

  • Report this Comment On December 23, 2010, at 4:57 PM, redsncars wrote:

    Come on Alyce.......... we're waiting for your rebuttal to all of our comments.......

  • Report this Comment On December 23, 2010, at 5:29 PM, Omahaneb6 wrote:

    # 7 Sirius note= typical ignorant comment.

    "cutting edge a decade ago"...that has 20+million customers now? what is your definition of CUTTING EDGE???

    "never consistently profitable"..its been consistently growing and starting to turn profit now. seriously???

    "TONS of options"..what product doesnt have tons of options.. look at the computer, shoe, pop, restaurant industry..thats tons of competition.

    you leave for good while we laugh and the OEM penetration increases along with keeping half subscribers..oh and we target the used car market..along with apps. seee yaaa

  • Report this Comment On December 23, 2010, at 5:37 PM, Omahaneb6 wrote:

    oh yeah i have never known a product that users do the companies advertisements/sales so much. my friends and coworker practically harass and laugh at people that dont have serious. After the 3rd person recommended/pushed me to Sirius..not first did i run to get the product i ran to research the company and then bought BOTH, you should research SIRI too Alyce. sirius stock more than paid for the subscription haha.

  • Report this Comment On December 23, 2010, at 6:16 PM, southernbeachguy wrote:

    I have had a position in Sirus (115,000 shares) for around 3 years, my statement as of 1 hour ago showed that I was up 306%. If you can tell me of one company that has given a small investor a chance to make that much return in the past 3 years I'll eat my hat. You need to retract your article.... it is just Foolish, even by the Fools standards..

  • Report this Comment On December 23, 2010, at 6:17 PM, FutureMonkey wrote:

    I think that people are being a bit harsh to Alyce over Siri. Clearly hit a raw nerve.

    I've was an early investor in XMSR and SIRI an have been a subscriber to XM (now XM/SIRIUS) since 2004. I absolutely love the product, can't imagine being without it. But as an investment I wish I had never heard of satelite radio. There is a big difference between having a great product or service and being a great investment.

    Alyce should not have dismissed SIRI as a lump of coal based on competition or being a old technology, but I'm not sure she is too far off from being a risky investment. The subscriber base is growing and should continue to grow. The problem is that that doesn't necessarily translate into profit if the cost-per-new-subscriber continues to grow at the same pace. When I invested in XMSR in 2005 the thesis was 100M subscribers by 2020 (or similar), but I totally underestimated the cost to acquire and retain those subscribers. So while revenue was increasing the costs to produce that revenue were increasing faster.

    SatRad is a capital intense business with very high start up and high ongoing costs for providing content and acquiring new subscibers. If management has control on cost and that the subscriber base has grown to the point that margins expand as the subscriber base expands, then SIRI may well be able to shed the "lump of coal" stigma as an investment.

    I am, in general leary, of capital intensive businesses with high debt/equity and limited ability to pass rising cost onto existing consumer base. If Sirius can't contain the cost-per-new-subscriber then they will continue to see thin margins no matter how many subscribers they grow (i.e. lump of coal business). If they can succeed in limiting costs and can maintain fixed costs then the market value for SIRI will expand as fast as it's margins (rocket stock).


  • Report this Comment On December 23, 2010, at 6:26 PM, FutureMonkey wrote:

    Whats the story with share dilution at SIRI? Why did the leap up from 3.6B shares in Q3-2009 to 6.4B in Q3-2010?

  • Report this Comment On December 23, 2010, at 6:34 PM, baldheadeddork wrote:

    Someday, a front page fool will write an article attacking Apple, Sirius, and gold stocks. The resulting swarm of activity in the comments will create a black hole, and The End Of The World As We Know It. After three thousand years of civilization, man's last words will be "But Howard just signed a new contract!"

    Just to be different, I'll take a swing at BP and GCI. Is BP's management worse than anyone else in the energy sector? How do you evaluate the Gulf spill against flammable drinking water thanks to fracking?

    This isn't the place to invest if you're looking for management with a strong environmental compass. But a recovering economy and a weak dollar means oil is likely to get a lot more expensive in a hurry in 2011. BP has already set aside about $50 billion for spill-related costs, which is a lot more than it will have to pay for the next two or three years, if ever. I think you're going to see an earnings rebound from BP in early 2011 and the share price is going to go with it.

    GCI reminds me a lot of Ford a couple of years ago. It's a business that everyone knows is dying, and the death rattle of some competitors has spooked investors on the entire sector. But despite its debt load GCI has brought its costs down and it's better positioned than most of its rivals. Gannett has substantial broadcast TV operations, and we're going to see a big bump in their Q4 revenues because of spending on campaign ads. They also have a good online presence with Career Builder and, among others. And newspapers are not going to disappear in the next five years, or probably the next twenty. Papers that focus on local reporting are still doing well, and that's Gannett's focus. Ad buys from car dealers are expected to rise substantially in 2011 as that market returns to full health, and that's a major source of revenue for newspaper publishers.

  • Report this Comment On December 23, 2010, at 7:39 PM, SiriusXMheat wrote:

    I can't believe I just wasted 5 minutes of my life reading this garbage by this author. It cracks me up how some of these "analysts" can get a forum without any extensive knowledge on the company that they are trying to make assumptions about.

    Please do some DD research on Sirius, you don't come across as not having a clue about the company you are writing about.

    As one of the previous comments noted........Sirius is GOLD and has a very bright future. Sirius could very well the best investment you could ever make over the next 10 years.

  • Report this Comment On December 23, 2010, at 8:25 PM, waterinfo wrote:


    1. SiriusXM IS showing significant quarter-to-quarter reductions in customer acquistion cost.

    2. SiriusXM has a mature, fully deployed captal base, with minimal new capital required before 2014. The current satellite complex can handle 100,000,000 subscribers as well as it can handle the current 20,000,000. (They will need more capital in customers services and support, but this is small compared to satellite costs.)

    3. SiriusXM short term debt has been all but eliminated, with recent refinancing setting back the due dates and significantly reducing the interest rate. Debt quality ratings have likewise continued to improve.

    4. New subsriber conversion rate from trial subscriptions is running about 46% and increasing.

    5. New subscribers beget additional subscribers by putting radios into their homes and other cars, as well as through gifts and direct recommendations.

    6. OEM preinstalled radios are becoming more and more common in new cars, and have started to appear in OEM marketed radios in Certified Used Cars. Not to mention, than even motorcyles will soon be delivered with satellite radios installed.

    I can go on, but I don't think that Alyce, or Futuremonkey are working from current information. The stock price is starting to finally reflect the true value of a functional monopoly in a very desirable consumer product. Look at what happened to IDT stock when the public realized that they dominated the remaining telephone calling card market. IDT's rise from $1.60 to $30/per share in the last 18 months is not an unrealistic trajectory for SIRI stock to follow in the near future.

  • Report this Comment On December 23, 2010, at 8:54 PM, FutureMonkey wrote:

    Thanks waterinfo,

    If Sirius has passed the tipping point of cost/subscriber where the subscription business model produces profit then SIRI may indeed be an excellent investment. That tipping point looked really far away and not highly probable last time I looked at SIRI.

    If EPS growth comes close to past topline growth rates or there is expansion of margins, then $6.5B dollars for the business may be cheap indeed. Given the growth rate and potential to retain a PE in the 30+ range for several years, SIRI could be looking at a 15-18B company with earnings in the 500-700M range. Maybe, I'll have to take a closer look.

    But, I still think folks need to layoff Alyce. It is really okay for analysts to have differing opinions and to express their opinions in these articles without being idiots. She is not alone in her opinion on SIRI. Caps rating is a remarkably weak 2-star rating with nearly 1 in 3 allstars giving SIRI the red-thumb. Morningstar rates SIRI as speculative growth with extreme fair value uncertainty in the 0.60/share range.

    Still want an explanation for the explosive share dilution, but if satisfactory SIRI may indeed by a high-risk/high reward investment to investigate further.


  • Report this Comment On December 23, 2010, at 9:23 PM, floridajohnson wrote:

    Sir, your comments about BP. like many others are themselves shameful.. You cheerfully forget about an American oil rig that blew apart 20 years ago in the North Sea, killing over 100 people.

    The UK government did not sue, but instead set up an inquiry and the oil industry learned from its own mistakes.

    Also, in having a go at BP, why does it not surprise me that you fail to list the other companies involved ? Or are some of the other companies American perhaps?

    And you do not take a pop at the poor oversight by the Government agency.

    But then, you want sensation it seems. God forbid that you would write a fair and balanced piece

    Good luck with that approach sir.

    No hard feelings Merry Christmas

  • Report this Comment On December 23, 2010, at 11:21 PM, ItAintCool wrote:


    It's your comments about SIRI that make me think this website should be called "Delusional Blind Idiot Posting Nonsense In the Face of Facts" You're still touting Internet Radio as the great killer of SIRI-XM, yet as many have pointed out (and has been known quite easily if you even bothered to check your information) that net neutrality rules are not in effect for wireless internet carriers, so how is Pandora going to reach customers when people are going to have to pay an extra $100 in data charges (on top of their normal data plan) for constant streaming internet radio to their smart phones. Not to mention Pandora recently got a major black eye for giving out subscriber information to 3rd parties.

    Anybody who has been a SIRI investor in the last 3 years (especially in the last 2) have been happy campers watching their profits go up to 3100% from the stock's all-time low. So we look at you as somebody who knows not what they talk about, but simply speaks of things they wish could be in lie of reality. Like on the parallel earth from the TV show "Fringe" where JFK did not die and 9/11 didn't happen.

    We laugh at you Alyce because you shout like a crazy person who prophesies doom without substantial reasons or facts to support your argument. In fact all you did was take a lot of positive information and spin it with your negative hyperbole to make it seem less positive. The company has been profitable for the last year, the company has ever-increasing subscribers (20+ million). You should be wearing a Sandwich-board in the street that reads "The End of SIRI-XM is Nigh!", as that would do more to convince people than posting here where intelligent people already know the facts which you seem to avoid and/or ignore. You and Marek Fuchs from TSC should do a program together. He likes to tell people to sell SIRI just before the stock jumps up 10% -20% (for the last two weeks in a row). The program can be called "How We Missed the Ball on SIRI, But Are Too Irrational to Realize It."

    Meanwhile us foolish investors in SIRI are laughing all the way to the bank. You know what is also old? The IPod and Internet radio. Those technologies have been around just as long as Sat Radio. So keep writing Alyce, maybe you should start telling us how terrestrial HD Radio is going to destroy SIRI as well? I hear the Betamax is going to make a comeback soon, maybe it'll wipe SIRI off the face of the map.

    One final note; in honor of the season, I wanted to let you know that I took a little of the profits from this week's 20% jump in SIRI's stock price this week to donate to the Autism Research Institute. I hope that some other SIRI investors who have benefited from the SP increase might take a little profit as well to help give to a worthwhile charitable cause of their own.

    Happy Holidays! I hope that you can find logic and factual support in your attacks on SIRI in the New Year, Ms. Lomax.

  • Report this Comment On December 24, 2010, at 12:09 AM, NOTvuffett wrote:

    Alyce, can you feel the love yet? lol. It should be obvious that the SIRI customers are loyal. The high entrance fee to compete with an equivalent product should also be viewed as a plus. Can you say "virtual monopoly"?

    BP made its slogan "beyond petroleum" and used a sunflower logo. I made the joke to a friend that they will now make their logo a sunflower and a bunny rabbit, lol.

    BP has been one of the most shareholder centric corporations out there. It also didn't flinch when it was asked to cough up $20bl when that will probably exceed actual damages.

  • Report this Comment On December 24, 2010, at 4:42 AM, ThongLover854 wrote: she for real? Do you really think what you wrote about SIRI?!? Really?!? If you don't think it's correct and your playing games, please just apologize for trying to help your friends that are shorts cover...

    If you really, really, do think that SIRI is a lump of coal, I would like to recommend cooking class for you...much easier...less will be fun.

    Now before you get all upset, please understand that if a man wrote this article, i would be equally criticle and i would say something a bit degrading to help illicit a response...see that's exactly what you did, right? Sensationalism journalism...get a rise out of the audience...yep...that's all journalists are good for these days...if that.

    You have personally attacked an equity of equity that has made me over 1000% in the last 18-24 months. If you were writing this article 2 years ago as it nosedived...i could understand. But you are way, way behind the curve...NOL's, SIRI 2.0, Howard, NFL and more re-signed, Auto numbers jumping, churn falling, net neutrality...the list goes on. Please name ONE THING...JUST ONE...that is a negative in the future of SIRI...?

    Let me continue with positives...SIRI price increases next year...extreme CAP/EX reductions with all current SAT's in orbit for the next 6 or more years...debt refinancing with lower rates and debt towers eliminated or pushed out further...S&P upgrades, i believe two in the last four months...and on...and on...and on.

    Bottom line...for readers considering SIRI as an investment...this stock looking at $2.50-$4.00 by end of 2011...and $5-$7 by end of 2012.

    If you think Apple Computers will be sitting at $1300/share by the end of 2012 with a 400% increase or more in EPS by then, then by all means, go buy a bunch of APPL or another big cool stock that Cramer and family babble about...

    If you think SIRI can turn their .01 and .02/Share earnings into .10 in the next three years, then hop on and enjoy the ride. With all the above positives that i mentioned, as a NOVICE INVESTOR that has spent hours and hours resarching SIRI, i would HIGHLY recommend this stock as a risky, but very, very STURDY investment that will surely continue to beat the S&P, APPL and pretty much any other equity or indice out there...

    If you don't believe me, take 13+14+15...that's in million new cars sold in next three years...60% with SAT RAD...about 25 million...HALF stay signed up...that's 13 million new SUBS...with churn let's just drop it down to 10 million. So about 10 million subs times $15/month...$150 million/month or $1.8 BILLION in revenue...ON TOP of the $3 Billion average now.

    Bottom line...this company is heading to $5, $8, $10, $20 billion in revenue...hop on for a wild ride...LONG SIRI...

    As far as the author goes, you obviously don't know what you're talking about...good luck with this internship and your future career...

  • Report this Comment On December 24, 2010, at 5:07 AM, ryanalexanderson wrote:

    I'd like to see the IP addresses of all the pro-Sirius hate mail posts. Or should I say, the single IP address. Honestly, it's just comical. If I wrote articles for the Fool, I would be long Logitech and toss in a bad comment about SIRI every so often, just to wear out a few keyboards and force some replacement purchases.

    Now that I think about it, I believe the Fool does have Logitech as a recommendation. Brilliant!

  • Report this Comment On December 24, 2010, at 8:31 AM, Fredlee009 wrote:

    Thank you for your timing on your Sirius XM bash. You of course will always hold a special place in my heart, as the author of the dumbest titled article in journalistic history...."Be Afraid Of Penny Stock Profits..." LOL


    Thanks for bashing Sirius, I think I might add more now, and I know now that the run is going to go higher. I also know this cause of Marek Fuches who says sell against the grain sirius , EVERYTIME it goes up. Thanks media dummies. Big gains cause of you guys, thank you!!

  • Report this Comment On December 24, 2010, at 8:36 AM, Fredlee009 wrote:

    Tons of options, your right Alyce. And so far, 20 plus MILLION subscribers, and 35 plus MILLION DAILY LISTENERS choose Sirius XM Radio. Hey you dummy, if Sirius XM is "losing steam", why did they add their last 10 million subs faster than their next 10 million? You present ZERO FACTS, in your bash, and saying they have too much debt isnt a fact. Actually, according to their current model, they DONT have too much debt. Thats why the S&P has raised their CCR 5 times in row now. Learn how credit works, learn about leverage ratios, free cash flow, and learn about the ability to constantly borrow money cheaper than you could previously. They have over a 70% profit margin on every new dollar that comes in. Apple cant even come close to saying that. Damn you people are stupid beyond measure at the Fool. I think you guys write for someone, or get paid too. If I had a dollar, id bet it on that way. No ones that stupid. Stock has gone straight up for 2 years straight now, and it still gets bashed, and its still undervalued.

  • Report this Comment On December 24, 2010, at 9:08 AM, andyjpm wrote:


    What you just wrote was the most insanely idiotic thing I have ever heard. At no point in your rambling incoherent response were you close to anything that can be considered a rational thought. Everyone is now dummer for having read it. I award you no points and may God have mercy on your soul!

  • Report this Comment On December 24, 2010, at 9:49 AM, DirtyTomRackham wrote:

    I've been a subscriber for 7-8 years (lifetime subscription!) and I certainly like the product, but there's certainly reason for skepticism (their debt is greater than their annual revenues which ought to be the first thing to give you pause). The vitriol in here is embarrassing.

    If you're going to defend it, at least give something useful to consider like waterinfo has (and your performance over the last 12-24 months isn't useful). Otherwise you just sound like a fool instead of a Fool.

  • Report this Comment On December 24, 2010, at 10:57 AM, eiswien wrote:

    I have been tracking Sirrius and XM since thier inception. i have made and lost (made much more than i lost) on these stocks over time.

    For you to be spewing the same filth about this stock shows that you are completely inept at what you are doing and dont bother to even look at these things. This must be a paid plug.

    This stock is a perfect storm waiting to break out. All the things are in place. The company is making $$$, free cash flow, debt reduction or refi at great rates, more sales, happy customers, great management team, and cult like investors! what else do you need...? INSTITUTIONS and it will be a perfect storm.

    Some of the other commentors are talking about $2 share price, but that is very conservative. $5 or even $10 share price is very doable in hte near term. If this stock hits $5 on its own the institutions will push it up to $7 or $8 quickly.

    You can do the math and figure out the rest...wait; maybe you cant.

    "throwing darts at a board" (movie wall street), that is what you are doing with these studpid commentaries.

    That ppl like are are allowed to trash all the hard work that ppl at these compainies go through to build these busiensses; and then to have fear mongers and greed pushers to tear down thier efforts with stupid articles like these is a pity.

  • Report this Comment On December 24, 2010, at 2:47 PM, doubting wrote:


    I love your posts because they make a lot of sense. But even with your very positive approach, there are some details that could make make us feel even better. FYI, siri capex will be negligible starting 2012 through at least 2018. The last siri satellite goes up at the end of 2011, and the rest capex is just mainetenace of their birds in the sky. It is highly likely that starting 2020 or so siri will be replacing its fleet with two-three geostationary satellites that cost to build about the same to build as for lower earth orbit. Launch costs are also about the same. These satellites will be servicing both platforms unless they merge earlier. Interest expense starting in the next year or so will go down to a maximum of $200M vs. about $300 now. Contract costs with talent and sports entities will reduce at least by 1/3. This is all due to no virtual competition. These are savings alone due to the merger synergies. You described brilliantly siri's potential for growth. Even if they do 40% of your prediction, this is still a stellar business. 2011 is the year of further synergies realization, consolidation and growth. 2012 will see a huge blow out due to a modest long overdue price hike in 2011, drastic savings and exponential growth. $5/share before 2012 is a 99% odds in favor of siri althouhgh this may happen even sooner on some hype factor that everybody discounts. Siri's business model is as solid as a rock, it simply took quite a bit of time to show.

  • Report this Comment On December 24, 2010, at 8:38 PM, emptygestures wrote:

    Are you joking about TLB and BP. These companies are springing back. TLB is going to do extremely well this quarter with how they are clearing out inventory. Your comments reflect nothing of what the past 2 years have done to the frugal minded consumer. So the comment to "get customers back in the door" is quite a reflection of that.

  • Report this Comment On December 25, 2010, at 3:24 AM, depsee wrote:

    Sears has been on my idea of the perfect "short" list for a while now. I posted this idea on these FOOL commentaries a couple of years ago with mixed responses. I based my opinion on parking lot observations at various Sears I happened to drive by around the country. I still have this opinion. Sears ain't what it used to be.

  • Report this Comment On December 25, 2010, at 12:53 PM, NewSiriFan wrote:

    Alyce, Thank You.....

    Let me explain.

    I'm relatively new to Fool. I've had some money in the bank the last 18 months and in October decided to start investing in my old dormant ETrade account. I opened it years ago when they were offering an E machine computer for free after rebate ($399). All I had to do was keep $1000 in the account for a year.

    So, in Oct. I made some somewhat uninformed choices and have lost a few percent. One of the things I bought was SIRI. I'm a lifetime subscriber, and the stock seemed cheap. Later, I heard that Howard's contract was up for renewal, and surely the stock price would go up when the uncertainty was cleared up. I bought a bunch of Dec. options, lost 60 % when the stock didn't move on the news. I also bought Jan.options, waiting for good news about holiday/auto sales. Also, bought March options, waiting for next earnings report.

    Pardon my rambling.

    I've been watching news and commentary (mostly SeekingAlpha). Also signed up for Fool SA, bought other stocks. I've been surprised that some of the articles seemed rather off. This morning I decided to search for SIRI news on Fool. I happily came across your article.( though not at first). But, after reading the great number of responses. I couldn't be more happy. I had no idea that there were so many SIRI fans. I was hoping to read support for my decisions in keeping with Sirius. Just this week when the stock popped, I bought more options for Jan. 2012. I found them to be pretty cheap, considering $1 options at $.72 only had a $0.03 time premium at this weeks $1.69 high. I'm hoping that news from next months Consumer Electronics Show will bring another pop.

    And, again thanks. I think I will be picking up some more Jan.'12 options. And, instead of selling them for a great profit I hope, I will exercise them, and watch the stock keep on running and running.

    signed, Rookie

  • Report this Comment On December 25, 2010, at 1:12 PM, langco1 wrote:

    the number 1 bankruptcy of 2011 will see the final end to the already 1 time bankrupt disgrace GM!this stock is mainly held by insiders and institutions that are still locked in and cant dump it. once that ends its game on and this disgrace will be closed for GOOD!!!

  • Report this Comment On December 25, 2010, at 2:46 PM, NOTvuffett wrote:

    Alyce, or Ms. Lomax if you prefer, just for the sake of clarity I did not mean for my post to be derogatory in any way.

    One of my friends had some money to invest, and he asked me for advice and i put him into a very safe one. He had a few thousand left for a 'mad money' pick and he was hellbent to buy SIRI. I tried to dissuade him, told him about debt, share dilution etc. When I couldn't talk him out of doing it, I did some TA on the stock and gave him optimum buy point within 1%. He didn't care, he bought at market price. His gain in excess of the market has been ~64%.

    As I thought about his choice, I warmed up to the idea. It is not a product in which I have any desire. But you have seen the strong fan base it has. Oftentimes articles appear trying to compare them to other companies not even in the same business. They are the only game in town for what they offer.

    Howard Stern is a disgrace, here are some of his stellar moments

    My best regards to you and your family this holiday season.

  • Report this Comment On December 25, 2010, at 3:16 PM, waterinfo wrote:

    Merry Christmas - no company, no visitors, no parties, so I'm catching up on my reading.

    In the January 2011 edition of Smart Money Magazine (published by the Wall Street Journal), editor James Stewart wrote an article about 100 baggers........stocks that can turn $10,000 in a $Million.

    Using examples like Wal-Mart, St. Jude Medical, Home Depot, Microsoft and Intel he lists the following attributes for potential 100 baggers.

    1. Unusual competitive advantages, often gained my being first or early into a new market, and a business that has a high cost of entry.

    2. Companies with full or near monopolies where they can legally dominate a market.

    3. High profit margins than don't erode easily.

    Mr. Stewart points to Google, Vale, Baidu, Wynn Resorts,, and First Solar as companies with these attributes.

    If you have been reading any of the other posts on this website, I think that you know where I'm going. SiriusXM has these attributes in spades.

    Now, you might argue, had you invested in SIRI a little more than a year ago, when you could have bought as many shares as you wanted for 15 cents or less, you already have a ten bagger, and getting to $15 per share from here would make it a 100 bagger. However, very few of us (certainly including me) had the courage to invest a sizable amount of many into a stock that was a weak breath away from bankruptcy. However, now that SIRI is on a solid financial footing, can it be a 100 bagger from here?

    Let's look at Mr. Stewart's key attributes.

    1. SiriusXM's competitive advantage is huge, given that to directly compete you would have to spend hundreds of millions of capital on satellites, and hundreds of millions securing talent. Despite my technical background, I'm not sure whether or not it would be feasible for Dish or DirectTV to use any of their capacity to initiate a radio service without launching additional satellites. I frankly doubt it, but even if they could, they would still have a very big obstacle in securing talent and listeners.

    2. It took a while, almost too long, for the government to agree to the Sirius and XM merger, giving SiriusXM not only a natural monopoly (on satellite radio distribution) but a monopoly "blessed" by the key government entities (Federal Communications Commission, Federal Trade Commission, and Securities Exchange Commission) that could have blocked it.

    3. As a service business, with monthly recurring revenue SiriusXM has very high profit margins on existing customers (e.g. an existing customer uses no resources once signed). There are some customer acquisition costs, but those are rapidly decreasing, and some customer turnover, but, by my estimate, at least 70 cents of every new revenue dollar can drop to the bottom line. Moreover, it is a recurring revenue that is negligible to most customers. (For most customers, a 30 cent per gallon change in the price of gas costs them more than a their SiriusXM subscription). Also, looking at the satellite TV model for some possible guidance, my DirectTV subscription in 2000 was $27.95/month. My DirectTV subscription in 2010 now costs me well over $100/month. Some of that is for price increases, but most of it is for additional receivers and additional services. SiriusXM will enjoy the same "revenue creep" as they raise prices a tiny bit at a time, and as customers like me, add additional receivers (I'm about to add my third XM receiver).

    So let's summarize........a competitive advantage, a monopoly market, and non-eroding, growing revenue base and margins. In addition, unlike Wal-Mart, St. Jude Medical, Home Depot, Microsoft and Intel, SiriusXM does not have to sell new products to existing and new customers every year. SiriusXM customers pay for the same product, a month at a time, often for a lifetime. You have to love "recurring revenue" businesses.

    SiriusXM Sounds like a 100 bagger to me, even starting from $1.60/share.

  • Report this Comment On December 25, 2010, at 6:06 PM, langco1 wrote:

    siri is junk...a few other losers etrade,hertz,kodak,rite aid and of course the already one time bankrupt disgrace gm!a better investment would be rubbermaid for all the garbage cans this junk will fill up....

  • Report this Comment On December 25, 2010, at 8:26 PM, vesprito1 wrote:





  • Report this Comment On December 26, 2010, at 9:55 PM, goalie37 wrote:

    SIRI may go up or down. I know far too little about the stock to say who is wrong and who is right. But the militancy of the SIRI bulls who post on here will only hurt their own pocketbooks. If a writer makes a negative call on a stock I own, their analysis may show me something important that I may have missed...something that could cost me money. Just creaming and calling that person an idiot will not benefit me at all.

  • Report this Comment On December 26, 2010, at 10:06 PM, goalie37 wrote:

    *screaming, not creaming lol

  • Report this Comment On December 26, 2010, at 10:43 PM, wonteach wrote:

    The comments on this website sometimes read more like one of those sports blogs where everyone screams mindlessly, "My team is gonna smash your guys!" without any rhyme or reason. I have to laugh when someone lauds a stock because the company "is starting to turn a profit now." That really makes it stand out compared to all the other companies out there, doesn't it?

    Using Morningstar's numbers, Sirius has a FORWARD P/E of 61.7. I personally would never buy a stock that was selling at a multiple of even half that number, unless the projected earnings represented a one-time dip from a much higher normal level of profitability. Looking at three stock picking services that are readily available online, the MSN Money website rates Sirius at 5 on a scale of 1 (worst) to 10 (best); rates it a C on an A - F scale, and Morningstar calculates its fair value at $0.60. In other words, it's a clear consensus among people who have done a lot more work and who are a lot more objective than the commenters here, that as an investment Sirius is somewhere between mediocre and lousy.

    It may not be among the 11 worst stocks around, as the article implies, but you'd probably be better off using the proverbial dart board.

  • Report this Comment On December 26, 2010, at 11:01 PM, waterinfo wrote:

    To Wonteach and Goalie37- If you posted your comments after reading Alyce's comments, without reading many of the other posts I would suggest that you look above at the several posts from "Waterinfo".

    Waterinfo (me) is a 45 year student of the market, a very successful investor, and a regular contributor to financial talk radio. SiriusXM is a unique market opportunity, net yet being capable of being measured by the usual metrics, because it has just begun a period of explosive growth that will last at least 10 years. If you have read my posts above, and don't agree with me, I respect your opinion. If you haven't read them, I'd be interested to hear your opinion after you have taken the time to review them.

    In addition, I posted in a separate comment, with some detail, why I think that most of the other "lumps of coal' in this editorial piece are way off base as well.

  • Report this Comment On December 26, 2010, at 11:11 PM, waterinfo wrote:

    Oh Mr. Wonteach, I forgot to add, SIRI is rated 4 of 5 stars by S&P, Outperform by Reuters, and stong buy (long) by MarketEdge.

    Difference of opinion makes the market.

  • Report this Comment On December 27, 2010, at 1:15 AM, SreeRama wrote:

    The loyal fan base I see for Sirius XM actually makes me consider it as an investment option.

    Your reasons not to invest in BP actually makes me to question/suspect this entire article. Investments should not be entirely emotion driven; correct?

  • Report this Comment On December 27, 2010, at 4:23 AM, TempoAllegro wrote:

    Thank you for this free opinion piece which stimulated a lot of discussion and probable personal research for investment.

    We have all heard the timeless advice about being fearful when others are greedy, and all of these fanatical comments here should inspire a lot of fear in reasonable people.

    Waterinfo made the most detailed attempt at a thumbs up approach, so I would like to make some cautionary comments about his ideas first, then some general comments, followed by questions or comments on other posts.

    First, waterinfo says SiriusXM is a monopoly. Then he says it has successfully convinced three well-known government agencies that it isn't. Does it sound like he admires smooth-talkers and suggests buying shares in their companies? Later, I believe Waterinfo projects 275 million cars in America by 2020 based on projected population growth, all equipped with satellite radio receivers. Then he goes on to make some rather rosy profit projections. Even assuming that population growth happens and those cars really are equipped with satellite radio receivers that only get SiriusXM, how can we be so sure that anything close to that profit can be made based on a subscription service that no one is forced to buy? I have to take issue with the blurb about Wal-mart, St. Jude Medical, Home Depot, Microsoft, and Intel. These companies have a much wider reach and relevancy than does SiriusXM (which, pardon me, is essentially an entertainment company), and what is wrong with selling new products? Aren't those companies selling products that people actually need or can't do without? Who said that SiriusXM customers have to pay for the same product a month at a time "often for a lifetime." Has the company even been around for a lifetime yet? Finally, Waterinfo says: "SiriusXM is a unique market opportunity, net yet being capable of being measured by the usual metrics, because it has just begun a period of explosive growth that will last at least 10 years." What a statement gushing with enthusiasm! Who knows what will happen in ten years, and if anyone knows what the usual metrics are, why can't we use them?

    All right, now for a few general comments of my own. Look, guys, please consider a few things that may be game-changers:

    A) oil prices are going up, which will reduce driving times and the need for this service

    B) the economy may continue worsening which will decrease people's ability to pay the fees

    C) everyone assumes that wireless streaming internet fee rules will stay the same (i.e. be expensive) forever

    D) if the government allowed this monopoly, it could just as easily break it has happened before

    On a more personal note, I would like to say that if I had a choice, I would not mind free terrestrial radio or CDs as opposed to paying a monthly fee no matter how good the service was. By the way, is there anything wrong with talking to someone else in the car? Or silence? Or just driving?

    To Floridajohnson: More information on the North Sea American oil rig that blew 20 years ago killing 100 people please? Never heard of it, but I'd venture to say that a comparable amount of oil was not dumped into the North Sea nor European coastlines sullied or livelihoods damaged. If they were, and the British government did not sue, then shame on them!

    To Thonglover854: The cooking class comment was an insult to all serious cooks or chefs everywhere! I would be careful where you eat out...

    And last but not least, to Fredlee009: I'm sorry, but my English must be getting poor, can you please start off by explaining this sentence - "Hey you dummy, if Sirius XM is "losing steam", why did they add their last 10 million subs faster than their next 10 million?" How do you know anything about their next ten million? Or maybe I misunderstood? And then this: "You present ZERO FACTS, in your bash, and saying they have too much debt isnt a fact. Actually, according to their current model, they DONT have too much debt." Um, may I ask what facts you have to support your statement that they don't have too much debt?

    Well, happy holidays, everyone. I enjoyed this article and comments very much. No matter how opinionated we have all been, not only has this been the most controversial article of the year for me, but the only article in ten years of reading articles that prompted me to write a comment!

  • Report this Comment On December 27, 2010, at 6:17 AM, uupdnn wrote:

    cmg,,,looks like a time to short,,,,look at historic chart......investors like to take profits and buy again lower.....good company....expensive stock.

  • Report this Comment On December 27, 2010, at 11:29 AM, waterinfo wrote:

    To Mungermaniac

    Your comments about one of my posts is thoughtful, and in many ways accurate. However, it also reflects a few misunderstandings, probably stemming from a lack of clarity in what I wrote. I would like to address these points:

    1. SiriusXM has, for now and the foreseeable future, a monopoly on satellite based consumer radio programming and data distribution. The government agencies, concluded, and I believe accurately, that other forms of radio/wireless distribution mechanisms are available to limit the market power of SiriusXM. However, satellite distribution does have a large number of inherent quality, coverage, and efficiency characteristics that make it by far the most desirable technique for good quality casual broadcasting. I don’t mean to imply that any sleight of hand or smooth talking was responsible for the government’s agreement for the Sirius and XM merger. Only the recognition that for the service to survive a merger was essential.

    2. I did not project 275 million CARS in America by 2020. I projected 275 million licensed vehicles. In 2007, there were 135,000,000 private cars, 99,000,000 2 Axle/4 tire trucks (e.g. Vans, SUVs, Pickups, etc), 7,000,000 small trucks, 2,000,000 large trucks, and 7,000,000 motor cycles, for a total of roughly 250,000,000 registered vehicles in the United States. The 275 million projection is simply a 10% increase over the next decade, which will mirror the likely population growth over the same time period. Moreover, the 9,000,000 small and large trucks, a substantial portion of the 99,000,000 Vans, SUVs and pickups, and some of the 135,000,000 cars are used “commercially”. That is, used by people whose livelihood requires that they be on the road much more than the average driver/commuter. This is the true target customer of SiriusXM, and that is why I suspect that there are many more channels on Sirius and XM that appeal truck drivers than those that appeal to Opera lovers.

    3. The profit projections that I made are not particularly “rosy” and in fact are quite conservative, drawn from my career in businesses not very different from that of SiriusXM. I admit, a key element of my projection is growth of the SiriusXM subscriber base to the order of 100,000,000 by 2020, and a little revenue “creep” from an average of about $150/year per subscriber today to $200/year by 2020. However, you can cut those numbers in half and still have a great business. Moreover, if not within the next year or two, certainly within the next five years, SiriusXM will provide a non-subscription, commercial based “free service” which will act to generate large advertising revenues and provide a constant conduit of listeners to a paid subscription basis.

    4. My reference to Wal-mart, St. Jude Medical, Home Depot, Microsoft, and Intel was drawn from an article in Smart Money Magazine about what it takes for a stock to be a 100 bagger, and these five companies were used as examples. SiriusXM has many of the qualities of these companies. It has the additional quality that it has recurring revenue. At the end of the fiscal year, when regular sales companies empty their cash registers and calculate their profit, they start the next fiscal year with an empty till. They make no money until customers walk in and buy new merchandise. That is merchandise that has to be ordered, shipped, stocked, inventoried, and sold. Companies that have recurring revenue, like the cell phone companies, like insurance companies, like most banks, like the power company, and like SiriusXM know, when one year ends, that most of next year’s revenue (with the exception of a little churn, turnover, and attrition) is already on the books. The sales efforts of the new year don't just fill an empty cash register, but builds the customer base for future revenue as well. Whether the product is essential (like electricity) or a luxury (like a SiriusXM subscription) is immaterial. It is the nature of a recurring revenue business that is the essential difference. I would also argue that once a “commercial” driver, who spends many hours per week driving, has SiriusXM in his vehicle, that he would rather skip lunch once a week, if that is what it took to “pay” for this non-essential service.

    5. My statement about “market metrics” was simply to underscore that as a company moves from the incubator stage to full operation, standard metrics like price to earnings ratio are not meaningful. How could any company with losses ever remain on the stock market if that weren’t the case? At best, a long range view can provide some potential measure of future value, and then work backward from that value to what the current value might be. That is why I approached my analysis the way I did, and in fact that is the way most investment bankers and venture capitalists evaluate their investments.

    6. Finally, with regard to your comments. As has happened so many times in the past, oil and gasoline prices rise and fall, but Americans rarely change their driving habits. They might move to smaller cars for a while, but they drive just as much. Wireless internet fees are not a “nasty money grab by greedy wireless companies” but are an accurate reflection that high volume users of wireless services truly consume more of the underlying technical assets that are needed to provide the service. It is just not possible for hundreds of millions of people to simultaneously listen to their own streaming programming over the existing wireless spectrum. Also, if SiriusXM ever reaches the point where the government has to “break up their monopoly” my fondest dreams will have been answered. The stock will have multiplied many times in the meanwhile, and history has shown, from Standard Oil, to the original AT&T and countless other examples, that the shareholders of dis-aggregated monopolies profit greatly by holding all the separate pieces that they receive upon break-up.

  • Report this Comment On December 27, 2010, at 12:22 PM, motleymarty wrote:

    My 8 Largely Pitiful Predictions for 2010

    By Rick Aristotle Munarriz |

    "2. Sirius XM Radio will gain ground in 2010
After successfully forecasting that Sirius XM Radio (Nasdaq: SIRI) wouldn't file for bankruptcy in 2009 -- an easy call looking back, but a gutsy one since even CEO Mel Karmazin would go on to warn of a possible filing in February -- I predicted that the satellite radio giant would reward its shareholders in 2010.

    Boy, did it. Shares of Sirius XM more than doubled this year, as healthy subscriber gains and steady profitability in 2010 provided a sharp contrast to the premium radio juggernaut's near-death experience early in 2009."

  • Report this Comment On December 27, 2010, at 12:24 PM, motleymarty wrote:

    Comment on Rick's article mentioned above:

    On December 27, 2010, at 12:17 PM, demodave wrote:

    I suspect that AppleTV will also throw a few logs on Netflix fire. My sister got the ATV and loves it. I eagerly await it for my birthday, courtesy of the aforementioned. So go ahead and add another Netflix subscriber. Given the sad state of air radio in Lubbock, TX (but I still listen), might almost expect another Sirius lstener, too. I'm I big fan of 80s on 8 when in a rental car. :)

  • Report this Comment On December 27, 2010, at 12:26 PM, motleymarty wrote:

    In the above, notice "the sad state of air radio".

    Fasten your seat belts.

  • Report this Comment On December 27, 2010, at 3:32 PM, doubting wrote:


    Morningstar has always been anti Sirius looking for every excuse possible and impossible to denounce and smear the company. However, in the past six months even they shut up. Actually, siri bashers overwhelmingly got silent. The reason is obvious - the company is delivering, and delivering big. And this is just the beginning. Before you get into an argument with pros like "waterfront', you need to do serious DD that takes serious time & effort. I will give you just one refreshing example that you are most likely not aware of. Starting August 1, 2011, siri will practically have a right to raise its fees (with FCC concurrence that is inevitable because the company has never increased its original prices). Most of siri disciples expect an increase in the range of $$2-3. I can assure you that the core 16M siri listeners will not budge at such increase like they never budged at $ 1.95 royalty fee hike. This means an average of additional $40M per month from the core 16M, let alone new subs. We are talking $480M net fcf in 2012 in addition to another about $750M fcf expected in 2012. So, we will most likely see $1,25B fcf in 2012. And this is a conservative estimate. How much a company with such numbers is worth? About $30B and counting.

    I tend to disagree with ''waterinfo" that siri will have 100M subs in 2010. This is hard to imagine. I also disagree with $200/per sub/year. I believe that it will be at least $$250-300. To me, based on today's reality, 50M subs in 2010 is more realistic. Even with this number, their annual revenue in 2010 will be about $$14B -16B, with profit in the range of $$8B-10B. How much is such company worth? Modestly, times 20 equals $160B. And I may be wrong and waterinfo may be right in his predictions because to me his arguments are still sensible if you care to read all his siri recent posts. If siri stays an independent company, by 2010 there will be a maximum 2B shares outstanding due to a massive buy back. So, one share may be worth $$80-100. We have a brilliant example of apple at $3 in 1997 and $320 in 2010. True that it's very difficult to predict as far as 10 years. It is much easier to see the next five years. I will not repeat 100% sensible arguments used by "waterinfo" but will just add that few are talking about the genius of Karmazin and siri management team and about other than sat radio prospect. You add that, and you will see in the next five years Sirius XM as one of the most profitable companies in the entire industry, with profits getting to 50% of the revenue. You are probably laughing. Guys like you were laughing when I bought a few thousand apple shares in the late nineties after Jobs return. Who is laughing now? Some were also laughing when I loaded siri when they were on the brink of bankruptcy and much more right after Malone siri bail out. Who is laughing now? It turns out the patient is healthy and the doctor was right that the patient will live robustly and help others prosper. I am laughing at Morningstars and Cramer-like geniuses. Right are those who do their homework thoroughly, take a reasonable risk and make serious money. Others are demagogues. Let us talk in a year.

  • Report this Comment On December 27, 2010, at 4:05 PM, stanton17 wrote:

    Speaking of "coal," why not put a positive spin on this story by investing in Cloud Peak Energy (CLD) which is the third-largest coal miner in the United States... It's +51.30% YTD and has yet to come near M*star's "Fair Value Estimate."

    As M*star mentions, "it's "the biggest energy company that no one's heard of."

  • Report this Comment On December 27, 2010, at 4:15 PM, baldheadeddork wrote:

    Waterinfo - you had me until 100m paid subscribers by 2020. With all respect, that's nuts. You're talking about more than a third of the adult population in ten years, when Sirius isn't getting 10% of the adult population now. If they haven't hit ten percent after a decade, it's not going to triple in the next ten.

    To the rest of your points, they own the satellite radio market, but so what? If a 4G signal comes from a cell tower instead of a satellite, it's still as accessible to anyone carrying a smart phone.

    Now this is where someone talks about cell plan data caps. First of all, they're temporary. If the caps are so low that they cause problems for most users unlimited data is going to be too great of a competitive advantage for AT&T to leave on the table. If there are caps, they're going to be at a point where ~95% of the market can do what they want without running into them, and they're going to grow as time goes on.

    And that gets to the second point. Streaming audio uses very little bandwidth. Slacker, Pandora and AOL stream at 128K bits per second. According to AT&T's usage calculator, you could listen to two hours of streaming audio per day/five days per week (not counting wifi) and still be under 1.5GB. Even for someone with hell's own commute, streaming audio is a free option right now as long as you have a smart phone and you can get a high speed signal.

    There are several things that keep me from taking Sirius seriously (Get it? I slay me.) as an investment. First, they have a mountain of debt and uncoverted premium shares that aren't calculated into the price. Second, they do have high ongoing capital costs - satellites do not last forever. Third, they're competing against smartphones for the same entertainment anywhere market, and Sirius comes up short in that comparison. Fourth, after a decade and near-universal consumer awareness they still haven't captured even ten percent of the market, and they've never broken out of the car. They thought consumers would accept subscription radio the way they accepted cable TV in the 1970's, but they were wrong.

    But the biggest reason is, the programming on Sirius just isn't that good. I rented a car a couple of months ago and listened to Sirius for a weekend. I used to be an XM subscriber and I liked it when I had to spend a couple hours a day commuting. But the quality of the programming has fallen a lot between 2006 and now. The comedy channels had the same comics over and over, the music channels were as stale as a bad broadcast station, and there were ads for male enhancement and debt settlement mixed in. Ads are bad, but I don't want to only hear ads for a junk extender and getting away with being a deadbeat ten times an hour.

    None of this means you can't make a lot of money trading SIRI. But it has massive problems as an investment.

  • Report this Comment On December 27, 2010, at 4:23 PM, kcsag wrote:

    I subscribe to Slacker radio (internet radio similar to Pandora) and have the option of "caching" (i.e., storing on the disk drive without need for streaming) up to 5 stations at a time. My commute is a short 30-40 minutes one-way and this is more than adequate for me. I hate "on the air radio" simply because it is filled with loudmouths, the annoying commercial breaks and the retarded programs. I would rather listen to NPR or just have total silence than listen to Kiss FM.

    I have rented cars with the SIRI option and while I like their programming, I just cannot seem to justify paying the subscription fees. I already pay $50 for my cellphone and $30 for data. This is on top of the $5 for my slacker subscription. Why should I pay anything more?

    I can't help but think that like the fate of the Point-&-Shoot Canons and the Nikons, satellite radio will be overtaken by the smartphone. It won't die completely, but will be restricted to the "niche market" much like the digital SLRs of today. Some of the niche market is already set, like the trucks that are on the interstate highways for 12 hours at a time. For most people, the cellphone should be sufficient.

    Of course, what do I know. I am only a fool.

  • Report this Comment On December 27, 2010, at 4:32 PM, motleymarty wrote:

    Very interesting discussion here. I'm with Warren B: fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful. waterinfo's posts win hands-down. This reminds me that my father once told me: "A job interview with an Internet company??? The Internet's not going anywhere!!! What are you thinking???"

    I'm thinking people Iike Alyce should meet my father. They could ALL have a lively discussion about others' stupidity. Long SIRI.

  • Report this Comment On December 27, 2010, at 4:38 PM, doubting wrote:

    I used a few time 2010 instead of obviously 2020. I am sorry for the mistake

  • Report this Comment On December 27, 2010, at 4:57 PM, waterinfo wrote:

    To Baldheadeddork

    A couple of points.

    A subscription to SiriusXM doesn't necessarily equate to a person. I am one person, and have four subscriptions......2 cars, a boat, and in the house. Not only that, I only hypothesize 100,000,000 active radios by 2020 not necessarily subscriptions. I believe a key to this will be SiriusXM's ability to provide a free subscription, commerical based service to unsubscribed radios. By 2020, and probably before then, you will not see a car delivered without an AM/FM radio, a CD player, in IPOD jack, a backup camera, blind spot alarm, and a satellite capable receiver. Whether the satellite receiver is active or not as a paid subscriber will depend upon the marketing and programming ability of the SiriusXM management.

    I think your math on data usage is off by mixing kilobits with megbytes. AT&T's current usage rate is 10 cents per megabyte. At 128k bits per second, listening via your wireless phone would cost about $8 per hour.

    You are correct about programming. It is probably, at best, currently adequate. They are adding talent and features on a regular basis. (I drove around for an extra hour while I was on a trip last week to listen to the entire Paul Macartney concert, so things are getting better.) But, as the subscriber base grows, it will be easier to spread additional talent and programming costs across a bigger user base, and I am sure it will continue to improve. That said, most subscribers will tend to stay around for a few of their favorite channels, whether that's CNBC at one extreme or Howard Stern at the other.

    Finally, you allude to the growth of Cable Television. Immagine what DirectTV stock would be worth, if it were the only company providing "paid" TV service. SiriusXM is for the foreseeable future going to be the only company providing "paid" national radio service. It is growing its subscriber base much faster than any CableTV or SatelliteTV company ever has. That growth rate will only accelerate as auto sales increase, and the service becomes more ubiquitous.

  • Report this Comment On December 27, 2010, at 6:53 PM, baldheadeddork wrote:

    @Waterinfo - Thanks for the reply.

    My math isn't off on on the data streaming. I think you missed the difference between bits and bytes. It takes 8 bits to equal one byte. The streaming rate is in kilobits, but the plan is in gigabytes. In constant terms, you can look at it as streaming audio at 16 bytes per second on a 2 billion byte per month plan, or 128 kilo bits out of 16 billion bits per month.

    It's not $8 an hour. At AT&T's price of $25 for 2GB each MB costs 1.25 cents, and an hour of streaming will use 57.6MB, so it works out to seventy-two cents per hour.

    And remember that AT&T is the only major US carrier with a data limit. Despite predictions that AT&T's cap would lead to everyone ending unlimited data plans - just the opposite has happened. Verizon still offers unlimited data for $5 more than AT&T's 2GB plan. Sprint and T-Mobile are pricing their unlimited data plans even lower than that. And they're expensive compared to companies that don't subsidize handsets like Boost and Virgin.

    Despite AT&T's move, the trend in wireless is clearly moving towards more data at a lower cost. I think 4G will actually accelerate the trend because bandwidth will increase greatly but there isn't likely to be a proportional increase in usage. Mobile devices and the times you're likely to use them don't compliment high bandwidth use like streaming movies. But because the bandwidth will be available and relatively inexpensive for low-bandwidth uses, I think you could see a spread of embedded devices with free low-bandwidth applications built in.

    And if you're a SIRI owner, this is what should keep you awake at night. Subscription audio doesn't have to come from satellites. It can come from a cell tower, too.

    For an example right now, look at Amazon's Kindle. The wifi version is $139, but for $50 more you can get unlimited 3G book downloads, anywhere in the US, for life.

    How long do you think it will take this to spread to cars? Forget 2020, I think by 2015 all major automakers will offer free streaming audio as part of an upgraded sound system. The hardware is inexpensive and the average American spends an hour a day in their car. It wouldn't use a lot of bandwidth over the life of the car. Charge an extra thousand dollars or so up front and the numbers are very close to working right now just on what the customer pays.

    But there's money on the backside for the automakers, too. Say Ford paired with Verizon on the next-gen Sync. With the high end audio package you get free streaming audio apps, select web apps like Facebook and email, and all it costs you is another grand on your car loan. Now to get access to their market, Ford can go to streaming providers and ask for subscription fees on their end. If the numbers weren't extortion they'd pay it in a heartbeat. For streamers who sell ads the car is the market they want most. Ford could also get a subsidy from Verizon, because in addition to the audio streaming package they could offer a video streaming subscription on any car that carries kids. For, say, $20 a month parents could stream Netflix and vCast to the car instead of buying and carrying DVD's. Two or three weeks a year that family is going to use a lot of data when they load up the truckster and go on vacation. But the other eleven-plus months a year it's less than an hour a day and the kids won't be in the car for all of that. Verizon would make a fortune.

    The only thing stopping this is a 4G network, and that will be available nationwide by the end of 2013. The 3G can support audio right now, and Ford is pushing hard towards it with Sync. They announced an update today that adds voice control in Sync for Slacker and Pandora apps running on an iPhone. It's nothing to add a 3G/4G transceiver to the radio and take the iPhone out of the loop. All they need is a network partner and it can happen right now.

    When this happens, Sirius is dead. If you could even get streaming audio that you control at the same price as Sirius it would be a huge blow. But I'm a close watcher of the auto industry and I'm 99% certain that streaming audio is going to be priced in to the cost of the car. The real money for network providers is video subscriptions, and they'll discount audio streaming to car makers to get access to video subscriptions.

  • Report this Comment On December 27, 2010, at 8:16 PM, waterinfo wrote:

    To Baldheadeddork---

    Let's do the math slowly.......

    According to my view of AT&T's web site, their data200 plan is $35/month, including 200 MegaBytes. Each additional Megabyte is 10 cents.

    Their Data5G plan is $60/month including 5 Gigabytes. Additional Megabytes are 5 cents.

    You say each additional MegaByte is 1.25 cents.

    OK, lets use your numbers........

    128,000 BITS per second is 16,000 BYTES per second (NOT AS YOU WRITE 16 BYTES PER SECOND)

    16,000 bytes per second will use up 960,000 BYTES per minute, nearly a full Megabyte. If a megabyte costs, as you infer only 1.25 cents, that means that you use just under 1.25 cents every minute, or nearly 75 cents per hour. An hour a day, 20 days per month, and you have consumed more than a SiriusXM monthly charge. Moreover, if my numbers are correct from the At&T website, and it is between 5 and 10 cents per MegaBYTE, this becomes between $3 and $6 per hour.

    However, pricing issues are minor compared to the technical issues of distributing identical streaming broadcasts from every cell site, seamless handover as vehicles move from site to site, reaching remote locations, working with limited bandwidth allocations for wireless applications, securing talent and programming, and providing a user friendly service.

    I'll keep my SIRI stock if that's ok with you.

  • Report this Comment On December 27, 2010, at 8:53 PM, baldheadeddork wrote:

    No need to be a dick, but could you be a SIRI fanboy if you didn't go all caps at least once a thread?

    Handoff between cell towers isn't an issue now, even when streaming audio uses most of the 200kbps available on 3G. When it's about a tenth of the 1mbps that 4G delivers to devices in cars and trains, forget even trying to make an excuse out of it.

    Please, keep your SIRI stock. When GM or Ford announces on-demand audio and video streaming (my guess is sometime next year with service starting in 2012) for about the cost of your satellite radio service, I'll be thinking of you.

  • Report this Comment On December 28, 2010, at 10:14 AM, doubting wrote:


    It appears you are an ignorant demagogue. FYI, sirius is already streaming video in Chrysler. No one has access to what siri does, from music to sports to talk show and on and on. No one has such infrastructure that took over a decade to build and billions of dollars to invest. Slackers and pandoras are mom and pop business with on the brink of bancruptcy act. All pandoras are trying to acheive is either to be acquired or ipo. Siri is not even interested in acquiring them. Who will buy or ipo such marginal businesses with fake subscriber numbers and funny revenues. There isn't anyone who can come close to siri either in content or infrastructure. It takes years and billions. Internet radio in the car is a joke. Are you going to read their banners while driving? Or you want to listen to advertisment between your songs. How does it differ then from terrestrial?

  • Report this Comment On December 28, 2010, at 2:07 PM, sandrewapic wrote:

    I don't know a single person with satellite radio, nor does anyone I'm around ever talk about it. Just sayin'...

  • Report this Comment On December 28, 2010, at 8:46 PM, ItAintCool wrote:

    ^ I know a lot of people who own Satellite radios where I live. So, just saying that where you are you don't know anyone with a sat radio doesn't mean it ain't selling. And eventually, since SIRI has more than 60% OEM penetration (and still increasing thanks to recent deals like Mini and BMW) in New Car sales (lest not we forget even more in pre-owned cars), chances are people you know will have Satellite radios sooner or later, whether you know it, or not.

    And BTW, the stock went up more than 5% to new yearly highs today. Meanwhile Alyce Lomax & Marek Fuchs hide their heads in the sand after telling people to get out of this stock, missing again on even greater returns. I know people who would love to get a 5% return in their investment for the year, let alone in one day (22% return if you bought in just less than 3 weeks ago). SIRI stockholders truly do have the gift that keeps on giving. But hey, if you're negative on the stock, please short it. I love to see how much you pay when the call comes in for you to have to buy it back.

  • Report this Comment On December 29, 2010, at 2:54 PM, motleymarty wrote:

    to any and all interested SIRI investors:

    Not Just for Sirius Investors: Goldman and Merrill Implicated in Manipulation Scam

  • Report this Comment On December 30, 2010, at 1:34 PM, hbofbyu wrote:

    This is excellent! The information I've learned about SIRI in the last 5 minutes would have taken me hours to research.

    The greatest lesson here? Get out of SIRI. When I see this many people emotionally attached to a stock I run for the hills. The biggest loser of my life was Cisco because it was "the perfect company". The stock always went up in the past and was going to go up forever through it's aquisition model. It was going to take over the world. We know how that turned out. (still a good company, not a good stock).

  • Report this Comment On December 30, 2010, at 7:55 PM, motleymarty wrote:

    hbofbyu - SIRI has no "acquisition model". I bought Cisco, made $ and got out. I worked on "The Street" seven years - as in for a broker in Manhattan. You are obviously a SIRI basher. No way you could have read the in-depth posts by those who are "STREET-wise" [reference waterinfo etc.] and then write "Get out of SIRI". Ever heard the term "due diligence"?

    Probably not. That's why, if true, you were not able to assess Cisco. Lost money you probably shouldn't have gambled with in the first place. It happens to all, don't feel bad.

    It's how we learn. We do NOT learn by reading 71 or so posts on a message board, and judging them all to be of equal value.

  • Report this Comment On December 30, 2010, at 9:58 PM, hbofbyu wrote:

    How is it that people who work on "The Street" can't generate a portfolio return that beats a 5 year money market at my local credit union? Why don't you just say that you used to play the tables in Vegas? It's the same game. If you win you think it's your own genius.

  • Report this Comment On December 30, 2010, at 10:21 PM, hbofbyu wrote:

    One more thing. I just finished a 500 mile road trip. I streamed all the talk radio, books on tape, news, etc I needed through my I-phone. The quality of streaming music was not as good as you would get with Siri but give it a few years. Also wait until the available UHF bands are utilized.

    The focal point of information and media will continue to move towards the personal telephone. Siri will be irrelevant because their data flow is one way - download only - nothing interactive. In order to compete they will be charging less and less for their service - and I wouldn't rule out a change to a commercial model. Start lowering those future revenue streams. Siri is a dog.

  • Report this Comment On December 30, 2010, at 11:46 PM, andyjpm wrote:

    Thank God I did not listen to articles like this and people that agree with them! 180% gain since this time last year, over 1600% gain in the past two years and it just keeps going up!!!!!!!!!!

  • Report this Comment On December 30, 2010, at 11:59 PM, andyjpm wrote:

    hbyfbou, weren't you the same guy that said TCK was a dog and to sell at $3.00 (its now $60.90 a share) Also that NFLX wouldn't go above $8.00 a share,( I think it just passed $180.00 a share) If I am wrong I apologize! But you would make one hell of an advisor, all we have to do is buy whatever you say is a bad stock! I think I am going to buy more SIRI as soon as I get a chance!

  • Report this Comment On December 31, 2010, at 1:03 PM, motleymarty wrote:

    hbyfbou and ALL:

    Stocks to Lead the Market in 2011

    Read it here:

  • Report this Comment On December 31, 2010, at 8:09 PM, revealedin71 wrote:

    Just a note of caution on Pennys. My 18yr old granddaughter and her friends dumped Kohls this past year and now focus on Pennys. She is semi- fashionista.

  • Report this Comment On January 01, 2011, at 12:21 PM, motleymarty wrote:
  • Report this Comment On January 01, 2011, at 12:30 PM, motleymarty wrote:
  • Report this Comment On January 02, 2011, at 12:54 PM, jgneuw wrote:

    do you think that Alyce has contacted her broker yet? --- JG

  • Report this Comment On January 02, 2011, at 7:25 PM, motleymarty wrote:

    jgneuw - ! SIRIously, that is funny.

    My question is: do you think she even has a broker??

  • Report this Comment On January 03, 2011, at 9:46 PM, ItAintCool wrote:

    1st day of the trading in the New Year and SIRI went up another 4%. Overall the stock has gone UP since this worthless article and Alyce Lomax doesn't have the courage to defend her position on bashing SIRI.

    Saying Pandora or other new technologies will kill Sat Radio is easy, but substantiating it with facts is the problem. Ms. Lomax ignored;

    1) Lack of Net Neutrality which puts Pandora (and other Net Radio) at the disadvantage.

    2) A huge lack of Paid subscribers to net radio, which in the long run will not allow the business to sustain itself. Compared with 20 million Paid SIRIUS-XM subscribers.

    3) Current higher rates to listen to Net radio through a smart phone ($40 a month for a data plan and whatever extra data overage charges if there is a download limit) compared to a $13 a month subscriber fee for SAT radio (no extra data fees)

    4) The black eye that Pandora has received because they leaked/sold their subscriber info to third parties.

    5) Lack of programming and programming choices on Net Radio compared with SIRIUS-XM.

    And let's just say, for argument's sake, she's right at this moment (which I and the majority here believe she isn't). This is a tune Ms. Lomax has been singing for 2 years, back when a share SIRI could be bought in the low double digits. It has already tripled its SP at the start of 2010 (and is 32x times its 2009 low). So for two years she's been telling everybody to incorrectly dump/short/ignore this stock as it has gone to new yearly highs for 2 years. She has told her readers to miss out on one of the biggest and easiest stock buying opportunities in the last 2 years. Where a $500 investment 2 years ago could have given you, $7,500 return today. So looking to the past, this woman has a track record of being consistently WRONG about SIRI for 2 years straight! She doesn't sound like a very perceptive and insightful person when it comes to this stock. So why would I believe her now? If I had a broker who was consistently wrong about a stock for 2 years, they wouldn't be my broker for very long.

    The only ones who should be listening to her are the ones who think that a broken clock is still a valuable timepiece, because it gives the right time only twice a day.

    Disagree with me, that's fine. It's your missed opportunity.

    And we're still waiting for your follow up Alyce!

  • Report this Comment On January 03, 2011, at 9:52 PM, ItAintCool wrote:


    I meant to say "It has already tripled its SP at the start of 2011, from where it was at the start of 2010"

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