Numbers can lie -- but they're the best first step in determining whether a stock is a buy. In this series, we use some carefully chosen metrics to size up a stock's true value based on the following clues:
- The current price multiples.
- The consistency of past earnings and cash flow.
- How much growth we can expect.
Let's see what those numbers can tell us about how expensive or cheap Aflac (NYSE: AFL ) might be.
The current price multiples
First, we'll look at most investors' favorite metric: the P/E ratio. It divides the company's share price by its earnings per share (EPS) -- the lower, the better.
Then, we'll take things up a notch with a more advanced metric: enterprise value to unlevered free cash flow. This divides the company's enterprise value (basically, its market cap plus its debt, minus its cash) by its unlevered free cash flow (its free cash flow, adding back the interest payments on its debt). Like the P/E, the lower this number is, the better.
Analysts argue about which is more important -- earnings or cash flow. Who cares? A good buy ideally has low multiples on both.
Aflac has a P/E ratio of 12.5 and an EV/FCF ratio of 4.1 over the trailing 12 months. If we stretch and compare current valuations to the five-year averages for earnings and free cash flow, Aflac has a P/E ratio of 16.5 and a five-year EV/FCF ratio of 5.3.
A one-year ratio under 10 for both metrics is ideal. For a five-year metric, under 20 is ideal.
Aflac has a mixed performance in hitting the ideal targets, but let's see how it compares against some competitors and industry mates.
|
Company
|
1-Year P/E
|
1-Year EV/FCF
|
5-Year P/E
|
5-Year EV/FCF
|
| Aflac |
12.5 |
4.1 |
16.5 |
5.3 |
| MetLife (NYSE: MET ) |
14.5 |
9.1 |
14.7 |
7.7 |
| Prudential Financial (NYSE: PRU ) |
5.9 |
8.4 |
11.5 |
7.6 |
| Hartford Financial Services Group (NYSE: HIG ) |
7.3 |
6.4 |
16.5 |
4.0 |
Source: Capital IQ, a division of Standard & Poor's; NM = not meaningful.
Before you get too excited about the tiny free cash flow multiples, note that in the insurance industry, free cash flow isn't particularly useful. Insurance firms spend their money mainly on investments, not capital expenditures.
Numerically, we've seen how Aflac's valuation rates on both an absolute and relative basis. Next, let's examine ...
The consistency of past earnings and cash flow
An ideal company will be consistently strong in its earnings and cash flow generation.
In the past five years, Aflac's net income margin has ranged from 8.1% to 10.8%. In that same time frame, unlevered free cash flow margin has ranged from 29% to 33.5%.
How do those figures compare with those of the company's peers? See for yourself:
Source: Capital IQ, a division of Standard & Poor's; margin ranges are combined.
Additionally, over the past five years, Aflac has tallied up five years of positive earnings and five years of positive free cash flow.
Next, let's figure out ...
How much growth we can expect
Analysts tend to comically overstate their five-year growth estimates. If you accept them at face value, you will overpay for stocks. But while you should definitely take the analysts' prognostications with a grain of salt, they can still provide a useful starting point when compared to similar numbers from a company's closest rivals.
Let's start by seeing what this company's done over the past five years. In that time period, Aflac has put up past EPS growth rates of 8.8%. Meanwhile, Wall Street's analysts expect future growth rates of 11.9%.
Here's how Aflac compares to its peers for trailing five-year growth:
And here's how it measures up with regard to the growth analysts expect over the next five years:
The bottom line
The pile of numbers we've plowed through has shown us how cheap shares of Aflac are trading, how consistent its performance has been, and what kind of growth profile it has -- both on an absolute and a relative basis.
The more consistent a company's performance has been and the more growth we can expect, the more we should be willing to pay. We've gone well beyond looking at a 12.5 P/E ratio.
Aflac's been on my radar since this past summer when Dan Amos, the chairman and CEO of Aflac, visited Fool HQ. You can see my thoughts here.
If you find Aflac's numbers compelling, don't stop. Continue your due diligence process until you're confident that the initial numbers aren't lying to you.
Interested in reading more about any of these stocks? Add them to My Watchlist to find all of our Foolish analysis. And for more stock ideas, check out this recent article: "The 3 Biggest Fool.com Trends of 2010."
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