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Is Facebook Really Overvalued?

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According to a recent Bloomberg Global Poll of investors, 69% say that Facebook is overvalued. This comes after the recent news of Goldman Sachs' (NYSE: GS  ) recent estimate of the social-networking site. Goldman has also invested $450 million in the company. According to a recent report, the poll consisted of 1,000 Bloomberg customers who are investors, traders, or analysts. Only 10% say that Facebook's valuation is fair and 4% say it is actually worth more.

The recent poll raises concerns that there may be a bubble forming in the technology sector, especially as social-media companies like LinkedIn, Groupon, and Facebook begin to file or contemplate filing for IPOs this year. Overall, the poll showed that investors disagree with Goldman's valuation of Facebook. The valuation makes Facebook worth more than Yahoo! and eBay (Nasdaq EBAY). And the rise of Facebook's popularity should make people think twice about their opinion, as Facebook is now the third most visited website in the world.

Can Facebook be the next Google (Nasdaq: GOOG  ) ? If so, Facebook does have some big shoes to fill. When Google went public, shares tripled in the first year to $279.99 from $85, according to John Lee, a portfolio manager at PGB Trust & Investments in Morristown, N.J. Google and Facebook share similar business models as well as long-term goals.

Google's website is basically a gateway to the rest of the world. It allows communication with others as well as providing arguably the most efficient and effective search engine in the market. Google has recently expanded its horizons in the operating system and mobile platform universe and has proved to be increasingly successful. Google now hopes to rival Facebook in the social-networking space. As of now, Facebook has seen little competition, as News Corp's (Nasdaq: NWS  ) MySpace has faded. Currently, Facebook and Google compete heavily for advertising, since Facebook generates much of its revenue through advertisements.

Still, Facebook has a long road ahead to be as big as Google. It faces headwinds like continuously changing privacy issues and minimal financial information for analysts to track its actual value. On the contrary, the fact that the world is going digital and that e-commerce is still booming bodes well for the social networking giant. Facebook has more than 500 million members and is always adding more. Facebook is always coming up with ways to attract more members through innovation as well as ways to generate revenue, so expect Facebook to put up a fight against Google in its quest for internet domination.

 

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  • Report this Comment On January 30, 2011, at 12:28 AM, vidar712 wrote:

    The way I see it, Facebook and Google are basically equivalent in their advertising ability. Google has the advantage of advertising a product that is related to what the user is currently thinking about (based upon Search Criteria). Facebook has an advantage of advertising for products that are related to what the user specified that they like (based upon a users "Like" choices (or specified interest)).

    Moving away from the companies' backbone, Google searches* to grow its company through innovation. By creating new ways of doing common things, Google may be able to grow its revenue by putting advertising into new locations (i.e. on your cell phone). Because of this, I believe Google should be evaluated as a growth company.

    Facebook on the other hand has the social network as its major asset. The user data in its databases, and the user data of people associates with that user (Family and Friends) provides advertisers with data that assists them to target a specific demographic. For instance: A doll maker might want to target married men, without children, between the ages of 30 to 35, who have a niece under the age of 8, who is having a birthday next month and has indicated that she like "playing with dolls". The advertisers might want to show their new product to this specific demographic, because they should be looking for a gift. Because of this all the data, I believe Facebook should be valued based upon book value. (With the obvious problem of how do you value user data...)

    Google can increase advertisements by moving into new areas. Facebook can increase advertisement effectiveness by increasing the complexity of their targeting algorithms to take advantage of user data and associated user data.

    I think Facebook's user data is more valuable than Googles growth prospects. But I do have questions as to whether Facebook will be able to fully capitalize on their asset. I believe it is similar to those oil fields that are an oil-sand mixture. The oil is there, it is just a matter of whether the company can come up with the technology to extract the resources that they desire. Can Facebook mine their user data and then get the appropriate advertisers to pay for that information? Or will they completely ignore their greatest asset and focus on increasing their user base (like MySpace did)?

    From what I have seen, Facebook is using traditional internet advertising techniques. Every other banner ad is financial related but I haven't "Like"ed any financial products. Facebook is using user data to advertise. When I changed my relationship status, all the 'Singles sites' advertisements when away. But, Facebook hasn't moved beyond the superficial data. Those 'Single sites' were replace by jewelers who wanted to help me propose, and a winery who wants to host my wedding reception. If the advertisers dug a little deeper they would have noticed that I haven't been in a relationship for very long.

    Facebook has valuable data, but will they capitalize on that data?

    * I made a Pun!

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