The Consensus Opinion on Ford: Mixed

As an iconic American carmaker with a $56 billion market cap, Ford (NYSE: F  ) unsurprisingly has generated plenty of retail and institutional interest. Last year, Ford was among the top 45 most-owned stocks by investment clubs, as measured by the folks at Better Investing. If retail investors were high on the stock, it got me to thinking: What's the consensus sentiment view on Ford?

Turns out, the view is "mixed." Let's have a look at a few of the key sentiment drivers.

1. Analyst opinion
Analysts have a favorable opinion of Ford. Data from Yahoo! Finance captures their collective feeling:

Opinion

Number of Analysts

Strong Buy 4
Buy 7
Hold 7
Sell 1
Strong Sell 0

Four analysts have a "strong buy" rating, with an additional seven "buys" and "holds." There's a lone "sell" rating mixed in.

For purposes of this exercise, we'll classify analyst opinion as "mostly bullish."

2. Insider buying
Next we'll look at insider buying and selling. Over the past year, Ford insiders have sold $111 million worth of their company stock. During the same time period, insiders didn't buy a single share of stock. (Data from Form4Oracle.)

Although $111 million of net insider selling isn't all that meaningful relative to Ford's market cap, and even though insiders sell stock for a whole host of reasons -- to pay for a house or tuition, to diversify assets, and so forth -- it would be nice to see some insider buying. For Ford, we'll classify insider buying/selling as bearish.

3. Guru buying
Next, we'll look at "guru" ownership of the stock. According to GuruFocus, in the quarter ended Dec. 31, four investing gurus were buying Ford and three were selling. Among the buyers were George Soros and Chris Davis; Jean-Marie Eveillard and Ken Heebner (known for moving in and out of positions quickly) were sellers. In the previous quarter, four gurus were buying, versus two sellers. (Adding to the positive sentiment, Ford is also a recommendation in our Motley Fool Stock Advisor flagship newsletter service.)

Though the guru picture is mixed, more gurus were buying than selling, so we'll call the trend "somewhat bullish" for Ford.

4. Retail-investor community sentiment
For retail-investor community sentiment, I turn to Motley Fool CAPS, our proprietary stock-rating system. CAPS generates ratings on a one- to five-star scale, with five stars as the highest ranking, indicating that the Fool community believes in a stock's future. Ford has a neutral three-star rating.

5. Short sellers
Next we'll look at whether short sellers are circling the stock. There are 181 million Ford shares sold short, according to Capital IQ. As a percentage of shares outstanding, that's a short interest of 4.8%. That's higher than I'd like to see, although it's nowhere near the 13.3% short interest for struggling bookseller Barnes & Noble. For determining sentiment, we'll classify this one as "neutral-to-bearish."

6. Does Buffett own it?
This is the "cherry on top" test, and in Ford's case, it's a no: Berkshire Hathaway does not own shares of Ford.

Adding it up
Analysts and gurus are positive on Ford, while the CAPS retail investor community is neutral. Short interest is a little higher than I like to see -- a neutral-to-bearish sentiment indicator -- and insiders have been selling over the past year without a single buy. Berkshire doesn't own shares of Ford, either.

Add it all up, and Ford comes out with a consensus sentiment of "mixed" -- there are some bullish signs and some bearish signs.

Of course, you can't base an investment philosophy on who likes or dislikes the stock you own, and a consensus bullish opinion can sometimes be a scary thing. Quoting Buffett: "A simple rule dictates my buying: Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful." There's no sense of either greed or fear circling Ford right now, though.

The purpose of this series of articles isn't to make a definitive buy-or-sell call. Rather, by looking at a stock's sentiment, the goal is to help you place your own opinion of it in a broader context.

One final thing: If you want to keep tabs on Ford's movements, and for more analysis on the company, make sure you add it to your Watchlist.

Fool.com managing editor Brian Richards owns no shares of any companies mentioned. As mentioned, Ford is a Motley Fool Stock Advisor pick. Berkshire Hathaway is a Motley Fool Inside Value and Motley Fool Stock Advisor recommendation. The Fool owns shares of Berkshire Hathaway and has a disclosure policy.


Read/Post Comments (8) | Recommend This Article (19)

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  • Report this Comment On February 19, 2011, at 5:46 PM, sergeanted wrote:

    Mixed seems to be correct from what you have written . I guess the real true barometer will be FORD'S performance in the future and what our economy does will be the true test.

  • Report this Comment On February 19, 2011, at 7:10 PM, busterbuddy wrote:

    My view is anything below 15.75 is a buy. But the hedges etc are going to try and short it down.

    Sooner or later revenue and sales and not speculation will win.

    Me hopes. Someday's I'm not so sure.

  • Report this Comment On February 19, 2011, at 11:33 PM, MRCORVAIR wrote:

    CRAMER SAYS IT IS A BUY SO I AM BUYING IT BIG TIME THOSE OF YOU WHO DO NOT BUY NOW WILL BE SORRY WHEN IT HITS 22.00 IN THE NEXT FEW MONTHS . DENNIS

  • Report this Comment On February 20, 2011, at 8:09 AM, BobMichigan wrote:

    Cramer who told you that the stock market was going to keep going up in November of 08????

    Another unthinking lemming.

  • Report this Comment On February 20, 2011, at 3:01 PM, UPGuy wrote:

    Insider trading: Assuming the insiders have stock options and they believe that the stock will rise, I would think that they would just hold on to the stock options and not purchase (at the option price) and then sell until the stock appreciates. With an option you can wait and see. I don't see a lack of insider purchases as bearish

  • Report this Comment On February 20, 2011, at 8:55 PM, DickDu wrote:

    As a Ford owner (car as well as stock) already, I just sold ALL my other stock in Microsoft,GE,Disney and Pepsi to switch everything to F. Foolish? Maybe? A mistake? I guess we will just have to wait on that one. However I did buy my first batch of Ford at $6.32 a share.

  • Report this Comment On February 22, 2011, at 6:09 PM, drilldrilldrill wrote:

    This no brainer stock is a buy and never sell,

    It keeps working for me. LOL all the way to the bank. NOT!! I will keep it. No rush to bank B.S.

    I even own the cars and trucks. Lost a hubcap once for the 2010 Fusion, Could I buy a new one noooo They were too busy selling new cars to bother with me. Had to wait three months and I loved it as I owned stock back then and went out and bought more. I'm very proud of Ford and what they did in a very short order. So the longer time goes by the better its going to get.

  • Report this Comment On February 22, 2011, at 10:50 PM, TruffelPig wrote:

    Currently the stock is a bit struggling - in particular after the not stellar earnings report. I will observe that a bit longer but I am not overwhelmed by recent performance of F and other companies. The oil price hike due to all the unrest in middle east won't help either I fear.

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