|Delcath Systems (Nasdaq: DCTH )||****||(37.96%)|
|Hyperdynamics (NYSE: HDY )||***||(12.64%)|
|Cell Therapeutics (Nasdaq: CTIC )||**||(11.21%)|
The market panicked over the unrest in Libya and elsewhere in the Middle East yesterday, dropping 178 points, or almost 1.5%. So stocks that have fallen by even larger percentages are even bigger deals.
The devil's in the details
The FDA's refuse-to-file letter isn't exactly a death knell for Delcath Systems, but with little cash and a rising burn rate, the alarm bells are pealing loudly. Last summer, Delcath also failed to convince analysts that there was really a benefit for patients using its percutaneous hepatic perfusion technology. While the clinical trials were not specifically designed for survival issues, it was a key component of the outcome reported.
Investors remained largely unconcerned, however, because its liver cancer treatment was seen as the bigger opportunity. Now the FDA's decision, although not killing off its chances for approval, extends the probability far out into the future, perhaps too far for it to reach.
At one time, Bristol-Myers Squibb (NYSE: BMY ) was thought to be a possible buyer for the company, and a takeout might be its only hope. But with two failures under its belt, there may be precious little for someone to want to dine on here. Despite the FDA decision, Delcath says it had already planned to file details about inspections, validation, and other safety information in April. It says it will resubmit its application by the end of September, assuming it's still around.
CAPS members had been hopeful of its chances, and I think many were caught off guard by the FDA's move. Let us know on the Delcath Systems CAPS page whether it will be able to ring the bell again in the near future.
It's something of a head-scratcher that oil exploration company Hyperdynamics would melt down on a day when the markets were flummoxed over oil concerns. Since it was only last week they were jumping higher on consecutive days, it's probable that is the likely cause.
Hyperdynamics, for all its promise, still has no revenues and hasn't pumped a barrel of oil. Like CAMAC Energy (NYSE: CAK ) and VAALCO Energy (NYSE: EGY ) , Hyperdynamics is hoping the waters off Africa's west coast will provide a lucrative trove of oil. From CAPS member g201825's perspective, Africa is a rock of stability when it comes to where drilling is safest:
With an estimated 1 billion barrols of oil in HDY's control, if you do the math, this stock good be a value at over $100 per share The Gulf of Mexico is now to risky to drill and the coast of Africa with the stable govt of New Guinea will be a prime focus for future oil exploration. I am betting my farm on it!
While I wouldn't recommend going all-in on any investment, let us know in the comments section below or on the Hyperdynamics CAPS page whether you believe its potential for success are as great as the hype that has surrounded it.
That sinking feeling
Investors were not pleased with being marginalized by Cell Therapeutics' plans for dilution. Last Friday the biotech said it entered into a securities purchase agreement to sell up to $25 million worth of shares of its non-convertible preferred stock, warrants to acquire up to 25.9 million shares of common stock, and an additional investment right to acquire up to $25 million worth of shares of its convertible preferred stock.
Cell Therapeutics has no revenues and the FDA refused to approve its cancer drug Pixuvir unless further tests are conducted. While the biotech is appealing the decision, it's also going to be running the new trials beginning this quarter. Considering that the only avenue small biotechs like CTI or large pharmaceuticals like Johnson & Johnson have when appealing a ruling is through the agency itself, it seems little more than tilting at windmills to pursue it.
Yet with 82% of the CAPS All-Stars rating the biotech believing it will ultimately beat the market, they seem to have the same confidence as management. You can add Cell Therapeutics to your watchlist to see whether it will be able to dilute the impact of any negative FDA ruling.
Ready for a resurrection
Just because your stock has taken a beating doesn't mean it's going to roll over and die. Markets are known for overreacting. A closer look at what's happened to your stock can give you an edge over other investors who just react to the market's lead.
That's why it pays to start your own research on these stocks on Motley Fool CAPS where you can read a company's financial reports, scrutinize key data and charts, and examine the comments your fellow investors have made, all from the stock's CAPS page. Then you can decide for yourself whether it's ready to come back from the dead.