Your expectations can use a refresh button.
Now that most companies have filed away their 2010 financial performances, we can begin diving into fiscal projections for this year -- and for 2012.
It's no longer a stretch. The term "next year's earnings" now refers to 2012, and you may be amazed at how quickly some of the market's seemingly overpriced players are growing. Loftier profit targets translate into lower forward P/E multiples.
This Year P/E
Next Year P/E
|Silver Wheaton (NYSE: SLW )||$42.37||26||23||Add|
|JA Solar (Nasdaq: JASO )||$6.48||5||5||Add|
|VMware (NYSE: VMW )||$84.91||46||39||Add|
|PotashCorp (NYSE: POT )||$56.13||17||15||Add|
|Visa (NYSE: V )||$77.03||16||14||Add|
Source: Yahoo! Finance. Visa's fiscal year ends in September.
Valuation is only a number
Many of these multiples -- even those clocking in for next year -- are chunky. You don't often hear something along the lines of "this stock is so cheap that it's trading for a mere 39 times next year's projected profitability."
Then again, there is more to this basket of presumably pricey stocks than meets the cynical eye.
Silver Wheaton is a Vancouver, Canada-based silver streaming company. It should not be a surprise to see a metal play holding up well these days, but worrywarts concerned that the stock is trading at more than 50 times trailing profitability need to turn around and start looking forward.
JA Solar is proof that alternative energy doesn't have to come with a sky-high multiple. In fact, JA Solar is joined by Trina Solar (NYSE: TSL ) and Suntech Power (NYSE: STP ) as other solar heavies fetching forward P/Es in the single digits.
There are concerns that China's economic bubble may pop or that the solar revolution may cool off in Europe given some of the wobbly kneed economies there. It's a legitimate fear, since earnings growth will reverse if orders dry up. However, it would seem that niche weakness is already factored into JA Solar's price.
VMware is the priciest name on this week's list, but it's also the market darling championing the virtualization software craze that's winning a growing number of companies. VMware's solution makes corporate servers more efficient by pooling capacity. It's a high-growth field, explaining why VMware is trading at 56 times trailing profitability, but less than 40 times next year's projected earnings.
PotashCorp is cashing in on demand for agricultural harvests. Yes, fertilizer is big business in this global landscape where rapidly emerging markets have the means to eat a little better than they used to.
If you want an impressive Potash growth trajectory, consider that it earned $2.04 a share last year. Analysts see net income of $3.73 next year. An 83% bottom-line spurt in two years is pretty impressive for a stock trading at a forward multiple in the teens.
Finally, we have Visa. The credit card marketer obviously isn't growing as quickly as some of the names on this list, but it's easy to buy into the attractiveness of a company that banks on card swipes during the early stages of an economic turnaround. Visa never had to take on the risk that the issuers faced with deadbeat chargers, yet it's still positioned well for the recovery.
Adding it up
None of these stocks are immune to a market meltdown. If you're looking for bulwarks, you'll have to find them somewhere else.
These investments are largely high-beta growth stocks, and will likely remain that way for several more years. The key here, though, is that they aren't as expensive as pundits make them out to be.
It's the opportunity that you didn't know that you were waiting for.
Interested in reading more about any of these stocks? Add them to My Watchlist to find all of our Foolish analysis. And if you like these five stocks, check out the six stocks that Tom and David Gardner think you should be watching in a free special report.