By
Rich Smith
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More Articles
May 10, 2011
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Although we don't believe in timing the market or panicking over market movements, we do like to keep an eye on big changes -- just in case they're material to our investing thesis.
What: Every once in a while, Triumph Group (NYSE: TGI ) really lives up to its name. Today is one of those days. The aerospace parts-maker reported fourth-quarter earnings last month that totally trumped analyst estimates -- $2.14 per share in profit, a 44% increase over last year's fourth quarter and a 13% "beat" over the Street.
So what: The fiscal year now ended, Triumph has booked a total of $7.08 per share in fiscal 2011 profit. Shares are taking a 12% victory lap today.
Now what: But should you join the parade, or fall out with some profits in your pocket? Personally, I'm less convinced that Triumph will succeed as an investment from today's prices. Even with the "beat" under its belt, Triumph shares now sell for 14 times earnings. That's pricey, considering analysts have the company pegged for sub-10% earnings growth over the next five years. Nor do I fancy the prospect of receiving piddling 0.2% dividend checks for years on end, as I wait for growth prospects to improve.
Add in the fact that post-Vought acquisition, Triumph now carries a sizeable slug of debt, and I'm more inclined to place my bets on a less leveraged aerospace play like Boeing (NYSE: BA ) or Lockheed Martin (NYSE: LMT ) . Better yet, the now totally net-debt-free Northrop Grumman (NYSE: NOC ) .
Want to learn more about Triumph Group? Add it to your watchlist.
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