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This Week's 5 Dumbest Stock Moves

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Stupidity is contagious. It gets us all from time to time. Even respectable companies can catch it. As I do every week, let's take a look at five dumb financial events this week that may make your head spin.

1. Skype out
The market isn't warming up to Microsoft's (Nasdaq: MSFT  ) $8.5 billion purchase of Skype.

Is Mr. Softy overpaying for the popular voice and video chat platform? Will this anger wireless carriers supporting Windows Phone 7 if the incorporation of Skype eats into voice call charges? Was this a clever use of Microsoft's offshore greenery?

Those questions have been pondered to death this week. I'm just here to call out Microsoft and eBay (Nasdaq: EBAY  ) .

It was eBay that sold a 65% stake in Skype for $1.9 billion less than two years ago, implying a value of $2.75 billion for the fast-growing communications software. Yes, eBay was able to cash in on its 35% stake, but it left billions on the table by selling too soon.

And Microsoft? Where were you back in September 2009 when eBay couldn't get more than $3 billion for all of Skype?

2. The hardcore side of Sears
Sears Holdings
(Nasdaq: SHLD  ) can't catch a break. The struggling retailer that has been consistently posting negative comps on this end of the millennium apologized this week for making skin flicks available through its namesake website.

The American Family Association called out the iconic retailer after discovering that pornographic DVDs could be ordered by minors and others on Sears.com. Religious organizations on crusades often get cynical eyes a-rolling, but the AFA was spot-on here.

The videos violate Sears' merchandise standards, so the retailer has removed the salty titles that were being provided by a third party vendor.

Poor Sears. Even smut couldn't get shoppers excited.

3. Ring around the Rosie
Sirius XM Radio
(Nasdaq: SIRI  ) will be losing one of its bigger talk show hosts when Rosie O'Donnell's Rosie Radio concludes its live run in three weeks, but the chatty comedienne won't be entirely off the satellite radio airwaves.

Sirius XM will be airing "best of" segments during the summer and then rebroadcasting her new daily television show that will debut this fall on Oprah Winfrey's struggling OWN cable channel.

Whether you're a fan of O'Donnell, there's something not right about replacing exclusive content with reruns from a visual medium. I do find value as an investor in hearing CNBC as I drive around, but premium radio can do better than that. If Sirius XM wants to bump its monthly rates higher later this year, it will have to shell out more -- not less -- for fresh content.

4. It's a small, small world
It's true that Disney's (NYSE: DIS  ) annual report wasn't pretty on the surface. Revenue grew by a mere 6%, and net income actually inched marginally lower. Fears that Disney is in a funk after a rare quarterly miss, quite frankly, are overblown.

The family entertainment giant isn't broken. Yes, Mars Needs Moms was a flop, compared with last year's multiplex success of Alice in Wonderland. Disney's studio entertainment revenue will always be lumpy. However, if you back out the studio, Disney's revenue and segment operating income would have climbed a reasonable 10% and 11%, respectively.

Disney's stock still closed more than 5% lower on Wednesday after Tuesday night's report. Really? If the market is going to put so much weight in Disney's studio division, it bears pointing out that fresh installments in the Cars and Pirates of the Caribbean franchises are due out in the coming weeks.

5. The Cisco kids
The news doesn't get any better for Cisco (Nasdaq: CSCO  ) .

The fallen tech darling posted another uninspiring quarter, and CEO John Chambers is hosing down the future again. He concedes that the days of targeting 12% to 18% growth are toast. The networking gear market is too competitive, and Cisco has failed in trying to buy its way into headier growth.

Its heart is in the right place. It chose to tap a Juniper (NYSE: JNPR  ) exec to head up its server access and virtualization unit, realizing that fresh outside thinking is a better solution than promoting from within its tired ranks. However, other than that, the once-beloved Chambers has to be on notice. Cisco's next outside hire may be at the very top.

Which of these five moves do you think is the dumbest? Share your thoughts in the comment box below.

The Steve Jobs Betrayal
You may already know that in the final year of his life, Jobs revealed a stunning betrayal — and told his biographer, "I will spend my last dying breath... and every penny of Apple's $40 billion in the bank to right this wrong." What was it that made Jobs so irate — and why could it make a few in-the-know investors some major profits over the coming months and years?

Enter your email address below to find out what made Jobs so enraged!

Juniper Networks is a Motley Fool Big Short short-sale recommendation. Microsoft is a Motley Fool Inside Value choice. Walt Disney and eBay are Motley Fool Stock Advisor picks. Motley Fool Options has recommended a diagonal call position on Microsoft. The Fool has created a bull call spread position on Cisco Systems and owns shares of Microsoft. Alpha Newsletter Account, LLC has opened a short position on Juniper Networks and owns shares of Cisco Systems and Microsoft. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors.

Longtime Fool contributor Rick Munarriz is a fan of dumb and smart business moves. Investors can learn plenty from both. He does not own shares in any of the stocks in this story, except for Disney. Rick is also part of the Rule Breakers newsletter research team, seeking out tomorrow's ultimate growth stocks a day early. The Fool has a disclosure policy.


Comments from our Foolish Readers

Help us keep this a respectfully Foolish area! This is a place for our readers to discuss, debate, and learn more about the Foolish investing topic you read about above. Help us keep it clean and safe. If you believe a comment is abusive or otherwise violates our Fool's Rules, please report it via the Report this Comment Report this Comment icon found on every comment.

  • Report this Comment On May 13, 2011, at 11:20 AM, Gonzhouse wrote:

    So, is Microsoft the Sears of technolgy?

  • Report this Comment On May 13, 2011, at 12:07 PM, rhuntjr wrote:

    I'd like to officially welcome CSCO into the realm of value stocks. It had a good run as a growth stock for all those years, but the fun had to end sometime.

    CSCO's short-term problems present a fantastic buying opportunity for smart investors. CSCO at $17 implies that the company's cash flows will fall by more than 20% and stay there forever. These unreasonably low expectations won't last forever. Mr. Market is bound to come to his senses sooner or later.

    Here's my calculation:

    Net operating profit after-tax (NOPAT) for FY 2010: $7,421.87B

    WACC: 7.47%

    Debt: $16,450B (includes > $1B in off-bs financing)

    Excess cash: $39B

    ESO liability: $4B

    Minority interest: $18MM (for good measure)

    NOPAT / WACC - debt + excess cash - eso liability - minority interest = $115.3B economic book value

    Compare that to today's market price of $93B, and you can see what a steal CSCO is today.

    Remember that the economic book value calculation assumes no growth in cash flows from FY2010, which is a fairly conservative assumption.

    For more background into the economic book value calculation, see:

    http://blog.newconstructs.com/2010/05/19/how-to-make-money-p...

    Wall street may be upset that the CSCO growth train has stopped, but CSCO buyers should be very happy about the fantastic bargain Mr. Market is providing.

  • Report this Comment On May 13, 2011, at 12:20 PM, BradReeseCom wrote:

    Hi Rick,

    Cisco's much ballyhooed data center sales sequentially declined during Q3FY11.

    Stunningly in my opinion, sales of the ultimate "phoenix" in Cisco's new product reporting category - data center sales, sequentially declined by -$41 million (a -9.6% drop) during Q3'FY11.

    Cisco's data center sales category includes Application Networking, Nexus Switching, Storage and Unified Computing Systems (UCS) products.

    This is noteworthy (again in my opinion), because it's the first sequential quarterly data center sales decline since Cisco began reporting its new product category, which started with Q1'FY10.

    Until Q3'FY11, data center and services had been the only 2 sales categories at Cisco (since it reorganized its sales reporting), to never of had a sequential quarterly sales decline.

    Additionally, the first 2 Cisco Certified Architects (CCAr) jump to HP Networking.

    Back on June 15, 2010 Cisco published the below three-part video interview of the networking industry's first two Cisco Certified Architects (CCAr), Alvaro Retana and Khalid Raza.

    The CCAr cert is considered the PhD of Cisco certifications and is the highest achievable cert offered by Cisco.

    Amazingly, I confirmed this week that Alvaro Retana and Khalid Raza both now work for HP Networking, contributing to HP's new FlexNetwork Architecture.

    So why do I find this so amazing?

    Well, according to Marc La Porte's CCIE Hall of Fame, there's only 3 Cisco Certified Architects (CCAr) in the entire world, and now the very first 2 work for HP.

    Sincerely,

    Brad Reese

  • Report this Comment On May 13, 2011, at 12:41 PM, stockster4391 wrote:

    Two comments:

    1. @Gonzhouse: Sorry, I don't quite get the analogy between Sears and Microsoft.

    2. @MotleyFool: Sorry, I don't quite get what Cisco's dumb move this week is. So it posted another uninspiring quarter. Where's the dumb move? Surely, they did not *deliberately* decide to have an uninspiring quarter. I thought a dumb move is supposed to be deliberate, like Microsoft buying Skype for $8.6 billion. That would qualify for dumbest move of the week, but who knows what the future holds?

  • Report this Comment On May 13, 2011, at 1:22 PM, cn01 wrote:

    CSCO won't remain below $20 for long, so I find it a good buying opportunity at this stage.

    Sincerely,

    Chris Nassar

  • Report this Comment On May 16, 2011, at 12:00 PM, stockster4391 wrote:

    Rick,

    Was looking forward to a response from you to my question: What is Cisco's dumb stock move of the week? The 2 possibilities are:

    1. Cisco *decided* to have an uninspiring quarter. Now, *that* would be dumb, but I don't think that's what really happened.

    2. CEO John Chambers hosed down the future and conceded that the days of targeting 12% - 18% growth are over. *That* does not seem dumb, either. It just seems like accepting reality and being honest about it. Surely, that cannot be dumb, unless being honest is somehow dumb.

    The only other move by Cisco that you mentioned was its hiring a Juniper exec to head up its server access and virtualization unit. That, by your own admission, is not dumb.

    So, I repeat my question again:

    What was Cisco's dumb move this past week?

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