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GameStop Is a Reluctant Dinosaur

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GameStop (NYSE: GME  ) isn't ready for the Smithsonian display case just yet.

The video game retailer is still alive and kicking after posting a better-than-expected quarterly report this morning.

Sales climbed 9.5% to $2.28 billion in its fiscal first quarter, fueled by a 5.3% spike in same-store sales. Earnings only climbed 6.9%, but massive share buybacks over the past year have eaten away at the outstanding share count to deliver 16.7% bottom-line growth on a per-share basis.

Earnings of $0.56 a share on $2.28 billion in sales looks better than the $0.54 a share profit on $2.23 billion in sales that Wall Street was targeting.

The numbers look good, so why did the chain's stock open 5% lower today? Well, GameStop chose to reiterate its earlier guidance. This may seem like a non-event, but it's problematic for two reasons.

The first concern is that sticking to its goal of net income clocking in between $2.82 and $2.92 a share implies that the final nine months of the fiscal year will be weaker than originally planned after landing ahead of its targets during the first three months.

The other problem is that this is really a hose-down in disguise. GameStop's guidance doesn't include the impact of share repurchases, and it spent $117.7 million during the past quarter alone to zap nearly 6 million shares. In other words, it bought its way to this reiteration.

Either way, this doesn't sit well with the analysts who were already camping out at the high end of the range with a consensus earnings estimate of $2.92 a share.

GameStop still deserves some praise for its ability to grow in what has been a hectic environment. Video game industry sales have been largely moribund since 2009, despite a strong April.

The industry is going digital, and GameStop's trying to make sure that it's on the right side of that velvet rope by making timely acquisitions. The rub is that the playing field is too level for game developers. GameStop as a digital distributor will be an even meatier challenge. The hardware companies man the gateways of choice, and it's hard to fathom Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL  ) or Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT  ) giving that up.

GameStop has always had a love-hate relationship with developers. Software companies love the physical distribution, but they resent GameStop's high-margin resale business that eats into their pockets. Nobody owes GameStop any favors in digital distribution, so it will be down to its ability to snap up the right interlocking pieces to make tomorrow work.

GameStop has outlasted many of the other media retailers. Comps have turned negative at Best Buy (NYSE: BBY  ) , Barnes & Noble (NYSE: BKS  ) , and Blockbuster as their media wares belly flop into the digital wading pool. GameStop keeps going in the right direction. It sees comps growth of 3.5% to 5.5% for this fiscal year.

Value hounds like what they see here. They see a growing company trading at a single-digit earnings multiple. I see a game of chicken. Play if you must, but be ready for a quick exit before you hit the cliff.

Disagree with me? Let me have it in the comment box below.

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The Motley Fool owns shares of Best Buy, GameStop, Microsoft, and Apple. Motley Fool newsletter services have recommended Best Buy, Microsoft, and Apple. Motley Fool newsletter services have recommended writing covered calls in GameStop, creating a diagonal call position in Microsoft, and creating a bull call spread position in Apple. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Longtime Fool contributor Rick Munarriz loves playing video games but he doesn't own shares in any of the companies mentioned in this story. He is also part of the Rule Breakers newsletter research team, seeking out tomorrow's ultimate growth stocks a day early.


Comments from our Foolish Readers

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  • Report this Comment On May 19, 2011, at 5:59 PM, Varchild2008 wrote:

    Having to dole out lots of cash to acquire Spawn Labs and Impulse as well as expenses related to Power up Rewards Program merging all of these acquisitions together....

    That is what brings down the EPS. The share buybacks help bring EPS back up.... But, I wouldn't claim that:

    "GameStop's guidance doesn't include the impact of share repurchases, and it spent $117.7 million during the past quarter alone to zap nearly 6 million shares. In other words, it bought its way to this reiteration."

    What about the fact that if it would have missed its guidance it would be because of the Acquisition Spending and not the overall Comps Growth which (by the way) they never lowered.

    Share buybacks can't be used to boost COMPs.

    COMPs growth guidance never lowered is far more significant than trying to paint the bottom line with a broad share buyback stroke.

    P.S. I thought Gamestop was supposed to have negative COMPs???? When exactly is that going to happen when it appears Gamestop and Microsoft have a very Amicable relationship. Microsoft was the first company to allow Gamestop to sell DLCs on XBOX 360...btw...

    Why say in 1 breath Microsoft has no reason to play fair so they won't...... and then the actual reality in front of you is that Microsoft is playing fair?

    There's no reason for them to allow Gamestop to sell DLCs.......period.......and yet they are!

  • Report this Comment On May 19, 2011, at 7:01 PM, memoandstitch wrote:

    The stock closed higher though.

  • Report this Comment On May 19, 2011, at 7:47 PM, YLv wrote:

    This does not account for a slow game market. Recently the market has been flooded with sequals and flops, most games falling into both categories. In the meantime, the newest equipment to hit the market was the Nintendo 3DS in April. Once you consider the slow game market it is easy to understand slumping targets. It is quite apparent that Game Stop is the best of the videogame retail market because of the many benefits it can offer as a game exclusive company. In fact, I would say that game stop is to video games as starbucks is to coffee. Sure game stop does not have any control over the quality of entertainment, they are known for standing by their used products. With their game informer magazine and power, their rewards for preordering, and their power up rewards for new purchases, they draw the "elite" gamers and with their buy back policy and low cost of used games they maintain the casual players as well. Game Stop is the place to be regarding marketing your new gaming products and no one else in the market seems to be able to come close. I think as competition inevitably crumbles and Nintendo releases their new console next year we will see better growth projections for Game Stop in the future

  • Report this Comment On May 20, 2011, at 2:08 AM, itconsultant wrote:

    Rick,

    Please re-read the press release closely again.

    "Note that earnings guidance only includes the effect of the shares purchased thus far in fiscal 2011 "

    translation: Buybacks till date are factored in guidance. Any future buybacks are not..since they have not taken place yet :)

    Your comment "GameStop's guidance doesn't include the impact of share repurchases,"..Is incorrect :)

  • Report this Comment On May 23, 2011, at 3:10 PM, mgallipo wrote:

    itconsultant,

    Unfortunately the language you quote does not necessarily negate Rick's comment. The real question is whether GME's prior guidance included any level of buybacks.

    Let's put some numbers on it to demonstrate. Company XYZ has 100 mm shares outstanding and give guidance of $1.00/share thus implying total net income of $100 mm. At the end of their quarter, they've bought back 5 mm shares (leaving them with 95 mm outstanding) but reiterate guidance of $1.00/share. That guidance now implies earnings of only $95 mm (actually a little over $96 mm since the weighted avg outstanding for the year would be a little over 96 mm, but let's keep it simple). In this case, although guidance remains the same PER SHARE total net income are now lower than previously estimated. However, if the initial guidance included an estimate for buyback activity then Rick's argument would be mistaken. Given that the most recent guidance only includes buybacks completed and no estimate for add'l purchases this year, I would guess that the co's original forecast did not include buyback activity.

    I think some of the confusion was in Rick's choice of verb tense. I would have written it in past tense to say "GME's guidance didn't include...." rather than the present tense "doesn't." Hope that helps :)

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