June 3, 2011
Although we don't believe in timing the market or panicking over market movements, we do like to keep an eye on big changes -- just in case they're material to our investing thesis.
What: Shares of consumer products manufacturer Newell Rubbermaid (NYSE: NWL ) were getting tossed in a big, durable trash bin today after the company cut its 2011 outlook. The stock fell as much as 13% in intraday trading on heavy volume.
So what: As we all know, crud tends to roll downhill. The trouble that U.S. consumers have been experiencing has hit retailers, which, in turn, is causing manufacturers like Newell to feel the pinch. Thanks to the lowered growth expectations at many of the company's retail customers, Newell cut its 2011 revenue growth range to 3% to 4% and its earnings-per-share range to $1.60 to $1.67. Previously the company was targeting revenue growth of 4% to 5% and $1.67 was the low end of its EPS range.
Now what: Obviously this is not good news for Newell shareholders. However, I can't help but wonder whether Mr. Market is overreacting on this one. The low end of the company's EPS range was cut by 4% and the stock was battered to the tune of more than 10%. It seems like investors may have to wait for more of an economic turn before they see sunnier skies from Newell, but in the meantime they're holding a solid company that's historically produced attractive returns. Right now the stock is trading at 9.4 times the low end of the new earnings guidance and it pays a modest 1.8% dividend.
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