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Why Did My Stock Just Die?

Your stock just took a nosedive -- but don't panic. First, let's see whether it had good reason to fall. Sometimes, panic-fueled drops can make excellent buying opportunities. Here's the latest crop of cratered stocks that could provide a possibility for profit:

Stock

CAPS Rating
(out of 5)

Tuesday's Change

Dex One (Nasdaq: DEXO  ) * (13.5%)
Acura Pharmaceuticals (Nasdaq: ACUR  ) * (9.3%)
Pandora Media (NYSE: P  ) * (7.6%)

Markets staged their fourth straight up day following a week of dreary movements lower as they warmed up to the notion Greece will adopt austerity measures. The Dow Jones index rose 109 points, or almost 1%; stocks that went down by larger percentages are pretty big deals.

The devil's in the details
Don't worry too much about the drop in Dex One's stock, it's just investors taking some profits off the table after it rocketed some 65% higher the day before on an AdWords agreement with Google. For a company that emerged from bankruptcy only last year, it was a welcome opportunity to book some gains.

Dex One is the former Yellow Pages publishing king R.H. Donnelley, which back in its heyday, published Yellow Pages, white pages, and various niche vertical directories. Think of it as the original local search provider.

While it still publishes those directories -- harking all the way back to 1886 in Chicago, when Reuben H. Donnelley published what is claimed to be the first telephone directory -- the print version is secondary to the online option, which is why the Google agreement is key for Dex. Local search has gotten hot, with ReachLocal (Nasdaq: RLOC  ) , Local.com (Nasdaq: LOCM  ) , and many more flooding the space.

But the agreement is not unique. A couple of months back, ReachLocal was soaring on the announcement of similar news. Investors were likely smart to take some of their profits off the table. As CAPS member ValueSlant points out, becoming a Google Certified Partner is more akin to being a reseller then being invited into an exclusive club. Dex One is going to have a tough road before it:

Dex One appears to have zero competitive advantage in the online space that they are looking to for growth in order to offset the continued print ad declines. They are in a race against their declining cash flows to pay down the debt to the point where they will be able to refinance in 2014.

Dex is looking for the deal to help it achieve its goal of 30% of revenues by the end of 2012 coming from digital sources, up from 10% in 2010. Keep an eye on whether Dex One can achieve its goals by adding its stock to the Fool's portfolio tracker, where all the news and analysis is brought together in one place.

Don't feel a thing
Acura Pharmaceuticals was another stock giving up some meteoric gains achieved the previous day. On Monday, the pharmaceutical's stock jumped 16% (at one point it was up more than 75%) on news the FDA had approved Oxecta, its abuse-resistant formulation of the powerful painkiller oxycodone, which it's developing with Pfizer (NYSE: PFE  ) .

The FDA is requiring all opioid drugmakers to come up with a plan to limit the abuse of their drugs. Addicts have shown an incredible aptitude for converting OxyContin (the brand name of oxycodone) into more potent drugs by extracting the active compounds from it. Pfizer has been working with Pain Therapeutics to bring to market Remoxy, another abuse-resistant formulation, but recently announced some manufacturing issues that analysts believe may hinder immediate FDA approval.

Thus the Oxecta achievement is just as important for Pfizer as it is for Acura. There's an estimated $100 million market to tap (analysts think Remoxy can rake in $500 million) so the approval gives Acura some breathing room to ramp up sales.

There was a lot of skepticism built into Acura's stock, perhaps on the basis of Remoxy's bigger market, but less than two-thirds of the CAPS members rating the pharmaceutical believe it will outperform the market indexes, while 70% of the All-Stars weighing in don't think it will pass muster. Let us know on the Acura Pharmaceuticals CAPS page whether you think the drugmaker will dull the pain for investors.

Don't open that box
It seems almost too easy to call Pandora's decline. While some unfortunate sap got stuck with the Internet radio stock at $24 a share shortly after its IPO, no one has really been tuning in to its valuation, and the stock is well below its debut price and is nearly sliced in half from that intraday high.

Yet Pandora is not worthless, as the Fool's Anders Bylund points out. In fact, it can even offer a viable challenge to both Apple and Sirius XM Radio (Nasdaq: SIRI  ) : "I still think that's true because Pandora out-Apples Apple itself in the user friendliness department, and that's worth a lot," wrote Anders. But it still carries a lot of baggage, so he'll wait before buying in.

Is Pandora worth buying, or, like its mythical namesake, an investment poised to unleash evil into your portfolio. Let us know in the comments section below and add its stock to the Fool's free portfolio tracker.

Ready for a resurrection
Just because your stock has taken a beating doesn't mean it's going to roll over and die. Markets are known for overreacting. A closer look on Motley Fool CAPS at what's happened to your stock can give you an edge over other investors who just react to the market's lead. You can decide for yourself whether it's ready to come back from the dead.

The Steve Jobs Betrayal
You may already know that in the final year of his life, Jobs revealed a stunning betrayal — and told his biographer, "I will spend my last dying breath... and every penny of Apple's $40 billion in the bank to right this wrong." What was it that made Jobs so irate — and why could it make a few in-the-know investors some major profits over the coming months and years?

Enter your email address below to find out what made Jobs so enraged!

The Motley Fool owns shares of Apple and Google. Motley Fool newsletter services have recommended buying shares of Apple, Pfizer, ReachLocal, and Google. Motley Fool newsletter services have recommended creating a bull call spread position in Apple. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Fool contributor Rich Duprey does not have a financial position in any of the stocks mentioned in the article. You can see his holdings here.


Comments from our Foolish Readers

Help us keep this a respectfully Foolish area! This is a place for our readers to discuss, debate, and learn more about the Foolish investing topic you read about above. Help us keep it clean and safe. If you believe a comment is abusive or otherwise violates our Fool's Rules, please report it via the Report this Comment Report this Comment icon found on every comment.

  • Report this Comment On June 22, 2011, at 12:01 PM, Rut67 wrote:

    Pandora is a 50 cent stock. It will ultimately hit that number. When the CEO states he "Respects margin and cash flow" yet doesn't seem to know what they are or how to attain them and, has not ever seen the positive side of either, you know there is a zero chance of success.

    Pandora has an unworkable business model in a challenging advertising environment. Bad, bad, terrible investment.

  • Report this Comment On June 22, 2011, at 1:43 PM, bottomfisherman wrote:

    I have stubbornly disagreed with Anders assesments of other companies but he is spot on about Pandora, it is worthless garbage.

  • Report this Comment On June 22, 2011, at 2:12 PM, peterod4 wrote:

    Dexo may have an old technology (the phonebook) but it still has a residual value that is much higher than the stock price warrants today. Even though they have lost alot of customers because of Google etc. they are still going to kick of at least 350 milllion in cash this year alone. The company expects sales to stop declining next year. The phone book although not as useful as before still has some value left in it. If cash flow stabilizes at 250 million/ year base case, it could still pay off a majority of the debt it has giving it a great chance to refi as the economy and business improves.

  • Report this Comment On June 22, 2011, at 5:55 PM, rfaramir wrote:

    Pandora isn't completely worthless. It's like a lottery ticket. As things are now, it's not even worth 50 cents, as it will fall straight to bankruptcy. The landscape has to materially change for its worth to be a positive number, but there's a chance that could happen. They have a service that users like and advertisers are targeting. It's just that the prices that each will pay are lower than Pandora has to pay to produce that service, for now.

    My most likely prediction is that just before bankruptcy someone will swoop in and buy it, thinking they can do a better job of finding a profitable way to do it. Second most likely: bankruptcy. Third: something changes and they get a break on price that allows them to profit, then the sky's the limit.

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Related Tickers

5/25/2012 4:02 PM
P $11.79 Up +0.19 +1.64%
Pandora Media, Inc… CAPS Rating: *
ACUR $3.05 Up +0.28 +10.11%
Acura Pharmaceutic… CAPS Rating: **
RLOC $9.22 Down -0.23 -2.43%
ReachLocal CAPS Rating: ****
SIRI $1.93 Down -0.06 -3.02%
Sirius XM Radio CAPS Rating: **
LOCM $2.43 Down -0.02 -0.82%
Local.com Corp. CAPS Rating: ***
PFE $22.13 Down -0.01 -0.05%
Pfizer, Inc. CAPS Rating: ****

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