Why Did My Stock Just Die?

Your stock just took a nosedive -- but don't panic. First, let's see whether it had good reason to fall. Sometimes, panic-fueled drops can make excellent buying opportunities. Here's the latest crop of cratered stocks that could provide a possibility for profit:

Marking its best four-day rally since last September, the markets continued jumping higher, rising an additional 153 points, or 1.3%. So stocks that went down by even larger percentages are pretty big deals.

The devil's in the details
Apparently a quick way to take your stock down is to announce a secondary offering. Both Syntroleum and Cell Therapeutics crushed current shareholders with plans of a stock sale yesterday. In Syntroleum's case, it priced the offering 20% below where it had closed the day before while Cell Therapeutics was only around 13% below its previous closing price but was seen as dilutive.

Syntroleum's stock is already reeling in sympathy from the vote to eliminate ethanol subsidies, a decision that's hit alt-fuels sector players such as Archer Daniels Midland (NYSE: ADM). Diverting corn to make fuel has been a touchy subject, because it raises the price of a key food product while producing a fuel that's not as efficient as other alternative fuels.

Some point to sugar-based ethanol such as that produced by Cosan (NYSE: CZZ), but rising sugar prices should serve notice that's no panacea either. It may be more efficient than corn-based ethanol, but with sugar in so many products, consumers will feel the result of that decision in their pocketbook. Sugar prices are off from their January peak but remain above year-ago levels.

With a market cap north of $19 billion and more than just ethanol to thrive on, Syntroleum will survive even if subsidies vanish. The same can't be said for Pacific Ethanol, and Syntroleum seems caught in a nether world between the two extremes. CAPS member pike1643 thinks it falls into ADM's camp rather than Pacific Ethanol's:

SYNM is on the verge of turning a consistent profit. With a 1.28 per gallon margin on biodiesel, this stock should yeild .40/share or more annually. If the tax credit doesn't get extended, RIN values will adjust to compensate.

Yet analysts seemed surprised that with corn in short supply and unable to meet demand, thus causing higher prices, farmers would actually plant more corn. Two reports out of the Agriculture Department doomed the Teucrium Corn ETF yesterday as they showed farmers were investing heavily in corn by planting more acreage earlier this year, but also that inventories were much higher than analysts had forecast. While the silos were down from the year-ago period, the higher-than-expected numbers suggested corn prices would weaken.

Agriculture stocks in general are down. ADM is down 15% this past month and 20% from its 52-week highs, while Bunge (NYSE: BG) is off almost 10% from its highs, and The Andersons (Nasdaq: ANDE) is 18% lower.

Yet higher food prices are in the future, according to CAPS member meadornack, and though that would seem to argue for an investment in such ag stocks like those above, the corn ETF will also benefit regardless of what happens with ethanol subsidies.

A pixie stock price
For biotech Cell Therapeutics, it didn't generate much of a bounce from being added to a number of Russell indexes, and then the company undermined the support it had with its stock offering. It may be using the proceeds to pay down debt, fund R&D, and pay for clinical trials -- and maybe even acquisitions -- but having hung its hopes on pixantrone only to see the Food and Drug Administration refuse approval, it needs to hope that resubmitting the application will cure all. A new offering will only dilute those who already own the stock.

Still, just less than 90% of those rating the biotech think it will outperform the broad market averages. Follow its development by adding it to your watchlist and see if the risky decision to appeal the complete response level is a smart move -- and whether it will innovate or die.

Ready for a resurrection
Just because your stock has taken a beating doesn't mean it's going to roll over and die. Markets are known for overreacting. A closer look on Motley Fool CAPS at what's happened to your stock can give you an edge over other investors who just react to the market's lead. You can decide for yourself whether it's ready to come back from the dead.