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Although we don't believe in timing the market or panicking over market movements, we do like to keep an eye on big changes -- just in case they're material to our investing thesis.
What: Shares of Irish bank Allied Irish Banks (NYSE: AIB ) shot up today, gaining as much as 28% in intraday trading on heavy volume.
So what: As the world has been increasingly concerned with the goings-on in Europe, the just-released regionwide banking stress tests gave Ireland's banks a pass. Good news? The short answer is "yes." However, it shouldn't be all that shocking since seemingly endless money has been dumped into the Irish banking system in an effort to shore it up after years of reckless lending.
In related news, the European Commission approved a $19 billion capital injection for the combined Allied Irish and Educational Building Society to help bolster the group's balance sheet. As a condition of the aid, Allied Irish needs to present a revised restructuring plan by the end of the month.
Now what: The future remains very murky for common shareholders of Allied Irish, and I applaud anyone that can come up with a reasonable estimate for what shares are actually worth. While there could be money to be made in Allied Irish shares, the outcome looks an awful lot like a coin flip to me, so I'm looking elsewhere for my banking exposure.
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