Golden Ducks in a Row: AuRico Gold

Under normal circumstances, I might feel pretty satisfied with a 60% return year-to-date from the stock I offered as my top pick for 2011. But these are not normal circumstances.

AuRico Gold (NYSE: AUQ  ) has proven abnormally masterful in its execution of one of the more remarkable turnaround stories this Fool has recently observed, and I view the resulting recovery in the shares as just reward for that array of accomplishments. All within the past year, AuRico Gold (formerly Gammon Gold) has:

  • Achieved a 44% increase in gold-equivalent production from its flagship Ocampo mine at costs that rival those of industry leaders Goldcorp (NYSE: GG  ) and Yamana Gold (NYSE: AUY  ) .
  • Discovered new high-grade resources near existing mining operations, placing some of those immediately into production.
  • Emerged victorious from a hotly contested bid to acquire producer Capital Gold and its enticing array of projects in the development pipeline.
  • Returned the previously discontinued El Cubo mine to commercial production.

With those and other meaningful achievements already behind the company, one might be tempted to expect a more muted forward trajectory for the stock relative to its peers. However, AuRico continues to place its golden ducks in a row; building a platform for sustained long-term growth momentum that I still consider virtually unrivaled in the industry.

Although the subsequent emergence of similarly dramatic turnaround stories in the making -- like that of Brigus Gold (AMEX: BRD  ) -- have pushed AuRico back to third position among my current top 10 picks for gold, my outlook for continued outperformance for AuRico's shares remains etched in gold and silver.

So before you consider looking anywhere else, be sure to consider the full range or remaining catalysts that are poised to support AuRico Gold's incredible growth momentum. For starters, release of a preliminary economic assessment remains imminent for the miner's Guadalupe y Calvo development project, and AuRico aims to build the project into its fourth producing mine by late 2013. Meanwhile, AuRico has wasted no time targeting aggressive increases in output from the recently acquired El Chanate mine. The company recently unveiled a low-cost, five-phase strategy to grow daily throughput by more than 85%, to 26,000 tons per day, with an anticipated 1,300% internal rate of return on the first two phases alone. Operations at El Cubo are ramping up toward full-scale production ahead of schedule, and the company is shifting to a mining method called "long-hole stoping" that achieved substantial operational improvements at Ocampo in recent years.

With all of these golden ducks in a row, AuRico increased its 2011 production guidance to between 265,000 and 295,000 gold-equivalent ounces at cash costs between $445 and $475 per ounce. At a time when leading producers Newmont Mining (NYSE: NEM  ) and Barrick Gold (NYSE: ABX  ) are incurring rising production costs per ton, AuRico is bucking that trend convincingly. I know of few operators in the mining world that are firing on all cylinders so convincingly across every aspect of their business, and so I can think of very few gold producers I would rather hold for the long haul.

Fool contributor Christopher Barker can be found blogging actively and acting Foolishly within the CAPS community under the username TMFSinchiruna. He tweets. He owns shares of AuRico Gold, Brigus Gold, Goldcorp, and Yamana Gold. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.


Read/Post Comments (5) | Recommend This Article (19)

Comments from our Foolish Readers

Help us keep this a respectfully Foolish area! This is a place for our readers to discuss, debate, and learn more about the Foolish investing topic you read about above. Help us keep it clean and safe. If you believe a comment is abusive or otherwise violates our Fool's Rules, please report it via the Report this Comment Report this Comment icon found on every comment.

  • Report this Comment On July 26, 2011, at 2:48 PM, AndreHaeff wrote:

    Question for Chris Barker:

    on Aurico Gold (AUQ) previously Gammon Gold (GRS) earlier this year I have gold production figures for 2011 of around 117,536 ounces. Could you let me know where the bulk of the increase to 265,000 to 295,000 ounces came from? Was this from the Capital Gold acquisition or from some of these component mines (like Ocampo) raising their output? Thanks. Andre Haeff 7-26-2011

  • Report this Comment On July 26, 2011, at 5:06 PM, Jbay76 wrote:

    Hey Chris,

    i was wondering if you might be able to churn out a top 10 silver list. Given the current situation and the opps. it presents for investors with some cash handy, it'd be very insightful to see what the maestro of PM thinks of silver miners.

    Thanks

    J

  • Report this Comment On July 26, 2011, at 6:02 PM, XMFSinchiruna wrote:

    Hi AndreHaeff,

    I tried looking back to see if I could discern where you found reference to 2011 production guidance at such a low number, but I couldn't find it. So I can't speak to the specific disparity you're asking about without knowing the relevant timeline. Generally speaking, however, the addition of Capital's El Chanate mine, the rapid development of new discoveries at Ocampo (i.e. Santa Ediviges), and the resumption of operations at El Cubo account for the ultra-rapid growth in production scale.

  • Report this Comment On July 26, 2011, at 6:03 PM, XMFSinchiruna wrote:

    JBay,

    Absolutely ... It's already on my calendar. :) Might be as late as next week ... but I will get it out shortly.

  • Report this Comment On July 27, 2011, at 12:31 AM, AndreHaeff wrote:

    Hi Chris,

    I appreciate that you got back to me so quickly.

    I think I see where our initial disparity comes from.

    I am excluding silver production from my figure.

    When you said gold equivalent I should have realized that you included silver production.

    I was looking at the pure gold production part.

    As for just the gold portion, what overall figure would you have for 2011? This would include the Ocampo with its increased production, and now the restarted El Cubo of the original Gammon, and the El Chanate from Capital and would you have a breakdown on just gold from each?

    Thanks again

    Andre

    Andre Haeff 7/27/2011

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