Warren Buffett attracts a lot of attention. As the world's third-richest person and most celebrated investor, thousands try to glean what they can from his thinking processes and track his investments.
While we can't know for sure whether Buffett is about to buy Deere
In his most recent 10-K, Buffett lays out the qualities he looks for in an investment. In addition to adequate size, proven management, and a reasonable valuation, he demands:
- Consistent earnings power.
- Good returns on equity with limited or no debt.
- Management in place.
- Simple, non-techno-mumbo-jumbo businesses.
Does Deere meet Buffett's standards?
1. Earnings power
Buffett is famous for betting on a sure thing. For that reason, he likes to see companies with demonstrated earnings stability.
Let's examine Deere's earnings and free cash flow:
Source: Capital IQ, a division of Standard & Poor's. Free cash flow is adjusted based on author's calculations.
Deere's earnings fell somewhat in 2009 during the global economic downturn but have since rebounded.
2. Return on equity and debt
Return on equity is a great metric for measuring both management's effectiveness and the strength of a company's competitive advantage or disadvantage -- a classic Buffett consideration. When considering return on equity, it's important to make sure a company doesn't have an enormous debt burden, because that will skew your calculations and make the company look much more efficient than it actually is.
Since competitive strength is a comparison between peers, and various industries have different levels of profitability and require different levels of debt, it helps to use an industry context.
|
Company |
Debt-to-Equity |
Return on Equity (LTM) |
Return on Equity (5-Year Average) |
|---|---|---|---|
|
Deere |
347% |
38% |
25% |
|
Caterpillar |
247% |
34% |
35% |
|
Illinois Tool Works |
39% |
20% |
17% |
|
Cummins |
14% |
33% |
23% |
Source: Capital IQ, a division of Standard & Poor's.
Deere tends to generate very high returns on equity while employing a considerable amount of debt.
3. Management
CEO Sam Allen has been at the job since 2009. Prior to that, he held a number of jobs at Deere since 1975.
4. Business
Farm and construction equipment isn't particularly susceptible to wholesale technological disruption.
The Foolish conclusion
Whether or not Buffett would buy shares of Deere, we've learned that it exhibits some of the characteristics of a quintessential Buffett investment: fairly consistent earnings, a straightforward business, and high returns on equity. However, it's possible Buffett would prefer to see less leveraged returns and how Deere's CEO fares in his new role.
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