The New Greatest Gold Stock in the World

When I selected Gammon Gold as my top stock pick for 2011, I was convinced all the ingredients were in place for the company to execute the most dramatic turnaround story that the industry was likely to witness this year. Incredibly, the company had already earned that distinction even before announcing another masterful acquisition!

AuRico Gold (NYSE: AUQ  ) -- formerly Gammon Gold -- announced an all-stock bid this week for fellow turnaround story Northgate Minerals (AMEX: NXG  ) . Since Northgate itself earned the No. 2 spot behind Gammon among my top 10 precious-metal picks for 2011, it will come as no surprise to my readers that I am thrilled by the proposed acquisition and the way it combines two exciting growth trajectories that were each primed for long-term outperformance.

Thanks to the deal's powerful 45% premium over the 20-day trailing average of both stocks, Northgate's golden explosion has come to fruition even faster than I imagined. Former Fool contributor Andrew Sullivan also spotted Northgate's emerging turnaround story last year and smartly selected the stock for his Rising Star portfolio.

Although Northgate also operates two gold mines in Australia that are struggling with an elevated cost structure -- and the miner's proposed Kemess Underground project must not be overlooked -- the asset at the heart of AuRico's interest is Northgate's Young-Davidson mine in Ontario, Canada. It has already reached an advanced stage of construction (on time and on budget), and AuRico CEO Rene Marion intends to keep Northgate operating as a separate subsidiary through the critical production ramp-up stage next year to prevent any missteps. After all, Northgate has been developing and mining gold assets for 92 years! The mine is slated to start production during the first quarter of 2012, with an average 180,000 ounces of low-cost gold production per year over a 15-year mine life. Even as construction progresses, ongoing exploration at the site continues to build shareholder value with extremely solid results.

On a pro forma basis, AuRico will command a massive total resource of 18.9 million ounces of gold equivalent. At current gold prices, that equates to a buried treasure worth some $34.6 billion, and that's without even considering the 860 million pounds of indicated copper resource at Northgate's proposed Kemess Underground project. Combined proven and probable reserves will reach 7.9 million gold-equivalent ounces. AuRico will amass a pro forma cash hoard of $346 million and will target a 54% surge in production to reach 733,000 ounces of gold equivalent by 2013.

With this intriguing strategic move, AuRico Gold leaps into a vastly improved geographical profile with assets in three of the world's leading precious-metal jurisdictions. If the prior Capital Gold acquisition was about building what I characterized as "a dominant market presence among mid-tier miners in Mexico," then this Northgate transaction signals AuRico's unmistakable arrival on the world stage as one of the premier mid-tier gold miners. Together with New Gold (AMEX: NGD  ) -- a truly formidable growth story in its own right -- AuRico epitomizes the early stage trajectory of emerging global leaders in the mid-tier space. Now legitimately in the chase behind larger mid-tier peers like Eldorado Gold (NYSE: EGO  ) and Yamana Gold (NYSE: AUY  ) , I expect AuRico to enjoy lasting growth momentum as the company works through its rich development pipeline (while remaining vigilant for additional strategic acquisitions).

The indispensable art of dealmaking
Because so many of gold miners continue to languish with bargain valuations despite gold's relentless ascent, I expect consolidation to remain a major story within the industry for some time. Given that expectation, investors would do well to consider the dealmaking prowess of companies they select as their preferred precious-metal vehicles. New Gold has certainly proven its mettle in this regard, while Goldcorp (NYSE: GG  ) has reigned supreme as the "master crafter of deals." After snatching victory from the jaws of defeat in a hotly contested bid for Capital Gold and spoiling the party for recent Northgate acquisition target Primero Mining (NYSE: PPP  ) , AuRico's Marion and his team have demonstrated ample skill at executing the right deals at the right time. I predict that will serve the company very well over the coming years.

The greatest gold stock for new money now
As recently as Friday, I reiterated my selection of Northgate Minerals as the pick of the litter for Fools looking to initiate or increase their exposure to gold at this juncture. Now that some of the easy money has been made there -- and notwithstanding my strong conviction that AuRico Gold is one gold stock Fools will wish to hold for the long haul -- I am forced by these developments to select another favorite gold stock for new money now.

This time, look no further than that very same Primero Mining that previously intended to join forces with Northgate Minerals. It was only just last month that Northgate Minerals' proposed deal with Primero led me to bump Northgate up to pole position as the greatest gold stock in the world. Immediately before that announcement, Primero had already earned the No. 2 spot among my top 10 gold stocks for new money now; only now Primero has emerged even stronger than before!

For starters, Primero recently added a U.S. listing on the NYSE, availing the stock to a new demographic of investors who may have been timid about venturing onto the pink sheets for access to Primero's stock. Along with that enhanced accessibility comes the profoundly improved visibility that came with headlines touting Northgate's now-scrapped deal with Primero. Whereas I believe Primero previously suffered in relative obscurity as the investment world failed to adequately notice its dramatic launch last year, the attention garnered by the prior arrangement with Northgate has ensured the profitable miner its rightful place in the golden spotlight. And let's not forget the $25 million consolation prize that Primero just received from Northgate. For a company with a $316 million market cap, that's about as real as fiat money gets! And finally, Primero CEO Joe Conway (formerly CEO of IAMGOLD) indicates he has already received "a number of inbound calls" from parties who may be interested in striking a deal with the deeply undervalued producer.

I encourage Fools to review my initial analysis of Primero's founding transaction to get more familiar with the company and its powerful upside potential. I believe an alternate strategic deal will soon be in the works and remain convinced that the market's valuation of Primero's world-class San Dimas mine is as severely dislocated from any notion of fair value as one can hope for when targeting an ideal investment vehicle for gold. I remain similarly bullish toward fellow juniors Brigus Gold and Claude Resources, but after this week's overdone sell-off, I consider Primero Mining the ultimate opportunity in gold.

Fool contributor Christopher Barker can be found blogging actively and acting Foolishly within the CAPS community under the username TMFSinchiruna. He tweets. He owns shares of all the companies mentioned. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.


Read/Post Comments (43) | Recommend This Article (55)

Comments from our Foolish Readers

Help us keep this a respectfully Foolish area! This is a place for our readers to discuss, debate, and learn more about the Foolish investing topic you read about above. Help us keep it clean and safe. If you believe a comment is abusive or otherwise violates our Fool's Rules, please report it via the Report this Comment Report this Comment icon found on every comment.

  • Report this Comment On August 31, 2011, at 3:20 PM, jesusfreakinco wrote:

    Chris,

    Any comments on when PZG is on the acquisition block?

    JFC

  • Report this Comment On August 31, 2011, at 5:00 PM, hsolliday wrote:

    Chris,

    Have you checked out Primero's income tax problem related to it's silver sales to SLW?

    Because of the way it is structured it is paying Mexican income tax on the "market value" of the silver it sells ( not the $4.00 it actually gets as revenue).

    This income tax nightmare is essentially wiping out nearly all of its earnings from gold sales - look at 2nd qtr results.

  • Report this Comment On August 31, 2011, at 7:43 PM, XMFSinchiruna wrote:

    hsolliday,

    The company is actively working to address the issue, and I believe they will achieve a favorable outcome. Primero has already delivered the 3.5m ounces for 2011, so 50% of remaining silver production is earning full potential at these nicely elevated silver prices. But you are correct to remain informed on the issue and track the company's progress in addressing it. It is a significant issue, but one that I believe has been more than adequately discounted by the market.

    Also from the Q2 report:

    "The Company is making progress on other corporate restructuring strategies that, if successfully implemented, could provide a permanent solution to its negative leverage to silver as silver revenue would be recorded by the Company at the fixed price paid by Silver Wheaton."

  • Report this Comment On August 31, 2011, at 9:39 PM, skypilot2005 wrote:

    Unrelated but, interesting:

    http://www.quadrafnx.com/s/News.asp?ReportID=476558

    August 31, 2011

    Quadra Fnx Receives Anti Trust Approval For Sierra Gorda Joint Venture

    Sky Pilot

  • Report this Comment On August 31, 2011, at 9:58 PM, Doc2011 wrote:

    chris,

    Great call on Northgate. Thanks to you I'm up 37%.

  • Report this Comment On September 01, 2011, at 8:51 AM, XMFSinchiruna wrote:

    Doc2011,

    That's my favorite sort of news, and I'm thrilled to hear it! But give yourself the primary credit: you made the correct call to gain some gold exposure, you considered the "turnaround story" investment thesis and (hopefully) performed your own due diligence, and then you ultimately pulled the trigger. Congratulations!

  • Report this Comment On September 01, 2011, at 11:16 AM, goldminingXpert wrote:

    If this were such a good deal for AUQ, which it's not, the stock wouldn't have dropped $2/share upon announcement. Once again, a poor management team proves itself by overpaying for an asset.

    Good day for Northgate shareholders though, no arguments on that one. After all the headaches at KN, it's nice shareholders get a very value-added takeout offer.

  • Report this Comment On September 01, 2011, at 11:28 AM, goldminingXpert wrote:

    A more accurate summary of the situation, via Reuters:

    AuRico Gold (AUQ.TO: Quote) is having a difficult time escaping the image of being a miner more prone to delivering disappointment than gold bars.

    The Mexico-focused, Toronto-based company announced a C$1.46 billion ($1.5 billion) takeover offer for Northgate Minerals (NGX.TO: Quote) this week, a deal that would double its production and expand its geographic footprint. Its stock price promptly dived.

    At the core of the fall are fears that gains made by the company in the last year could be lost because it may be paying too high a price for Northgate, which has high costs and posted a loss in its last quarter, despite record metal prices.

    Continues here: http://ca.reuters.com/article/businessNews/idCATRE77U6ZZ2011...

  • Report this Comment On September 01, 2011, at 11:43 AM, speedybure wrote:

    Love it Chris. I don't know about you but I feel there will be a lot of tie ups in Timmins, Aurizon, Primero, Claude and possibly Brigus and Richmont. I'm waiting for the Guadalupe Y Calvo PEA and the startup of Young Davidson to cause the stock to really start moving. Based on my current valuation and using a 30:1 gold to silver ratio, I have Aurico at 28-30 at 1600 gold and 40 silver. Still Dirty cheap.

  • Report this Comment On September 01, 2011, at 11:45 AM, XMFSinchiruna wrote:

    With reference to the above comment, readers may wish to be informed of the commenter's track record with respect to accuracy:

    http://seekingalpha.com/article/287591-retraction-great-pant...

  • Report this Comment On September 01, 2011, at 11:57 AM, speedybure wrote:

    HSHolliday, Primero has planned (although i don't if implemented) will buy call options to offset this. This is a problem that is easily remedied. Primero is also a likely takeover as Chris has mentioned so this is a non issue.

  • Report this Comment On September 01, 2011, at 11:59 AM, speedybure wrote:

    Holliday,

    Are you the one that published the blasphemous article on Great Panther. If you, I would just like to say I have stopped writing (for the most part) on SA because of these types of things. Please don't pollute the Motley Fool with such ignorance as SA is drowning in.

  • Report this Comment On September 01, 2011, at 12:19 PM, goldminingXpert wrote:

    Why isn't Primero ratable at CAPS by the way? It looks like a decent long here.

    Speedy: You might want to review the meaning of blasphemous: "Blasphemy is irreverence toward holy personages, religious artifacts, customs, and beliefs. "

    Last I checked, Great Panther was a public company rather than a religion.

    ---

    Sinchy: You know I called AUQ right a few weeks ago during our previous spat. Nothing wrong with admitting I got one right. We all make mistakes, and I am more than willing to own up to mine.

  • Report this Comment On September 01, 2011, at 12:24 PM, speedybure wrote:

    That was just a joke. I want Sandstorm Metals & Energy to be able to add to Caps portfolio, anyone know how I would go about this?

  • Report this Comment On September 01, 2011, at 12:29 PM, XMFSinchiruna wrote:

    speedy,

    Agreed the landscape for consolidation of junior producers looks ripe as bargain-basement valuations continue to prevail throughout the industry.

    Just to clarify, is your fair-value estimate for pro forma AuRico based upon discounted cash flow? Discount rate?

    [For readers who may not be familiar with CAPS member speedybure, I have found his fair-value estimates very useful over the years ... in particular his valuation analysys of SLW that pegged fair value at $47.82 when the stock still traded for less than $9 back in May of 2009. SLW touched a high of $47.60 earlier this year.]

    http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/silver-wheaton-valuation-on/19663...

    You must be enjoying Franco-Nevada's acquisition of the Phoenix royalty.

  • Report this Comment On September 01, 2011, at 12:32 PM, goldminingXpert wrote:

    Speedy: Sandstorm is ratable: http://caps.fool.com/Ticker/STTYF.PK.aspx

  • Report this Comment On September 01, 2011, at 12:39 PM, XMFSinchiruna wrote:

    For the record: I have resolved to cease engaging directly with CAPS member "goldminingXpert". Attempting to reason with this individual in discussions of fact have proven to be a waste of my time over the past several years. Although it's a simple task for this individual to level baseless allegations against companies, my wish to ensure that my fellow Fools not fall victim to unsubstantiated claims or misinformation has compelled me to rebut those drive-by attacks as I have done repeatedly throughout the CAPS archives. For the record, I have put in my time in that pursuit, and I am now done.

  • Report this Comment On September 01, 2011, at 12:40 PM, speedybure wrote:

    Thanks didn't realize it was up.

    Chris: I used a DCF just because I needed to account for what will rather hefty capital reqs over the next 5 yrs. I used a 9% discount rate down from 11% as I perceive less risk with geo-politically diversified mining ops and 3% long term growth given the quality of the assets. I will try to post a link after I upload it to google docs so people can play around with it. Also I used long term cash costs at 575-600 for the time being but low balled depletion (to be on the conservative side as it is serves as a tax shelter) and left out the pro-forma cash position. Yes, Franco has moved up in the ranks in my opinion inching ahead of RGLD due to the progress as Prosperity (which I think will be given the full go-ahead) the Pheonix royalty, Central Ashanti NSR and the Canadian Malartic GR albeit not covering the whole property.

  • Report this Comment On September 01, 2011, at 12:45 PM, goldminingXpert wrote:

    For the record (since we're recording things apparently :) ) TMFSinchy and I disagreed about AUQ a couple weeks ago when I red-thumbed it in the high 12s. I, stating that, in my opinion, management chronically underperforms, would blunder again at some point. Not two weeks later, management delivers by way overpaying for NXG, stock dives, and my red thumb is closed successfully.

    The original discussion occurred here: http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/aurico-gold-is-a-beast/627506

  • Report this Comment On September 01, 2011, at 12:54 PM, speedybure wrote:
  • Report this Comment On September 01, 2011, at 1:01 PM, speedybure wrote:

    goldminingXpert:

    I would agree with you, however, mgmt looks like they have gotten Ocampo under control, running El Chanate efficiently and have El Cubo performing ahead of schedule after restarting the mine following the workers strike. I don't think they overpaid for Northgate if you look at how much they paid per resource ounce. Even on a 2p basis, they paid around $360-$370 an ounce, which at $1000-$1200 gold is rather pricey but not up here at $1,800.

    I had an interview with gold report two days ago in which they asked my about my thoughts, to which I replied I liked it alot as cash costs at its Aussie ops should come down but more importantly Young Davidson, which I think 220k/yr will prove conservative when fully optimized.

    On a lighter note, I hope many people on this board have been accumulating Silvercorp when it dropped below 8.

  • Report this Comment On September 01, 2011, at 1:01 PM, catoismymotor wrote:

    Well, I'd like to thank AUQ for inflating NXG. I sold NXG at a 37% profit and then used most of the money to buy more shares of AUQ at a 18% discount.

    I am long on AUQ so I am extremely satisfied with how things worked out. Now if ISVLF.PK would only dip below $2 a share I'd be a happy camper again.

  • Report this Comment On September 01, 2011, at 1:07 PM, XMFSinchiruna wrote:

    speedy, Thanks for posting your DCF analysis. I look forward to having a closer look at my first opportunity.

  • Report this Comment On September 01, 2011, at 1:14 PM, goldminingXpert wrote:

    There's virtually no pricing difference between NXG and AUQ now (since NXG is now worth AUQ*0.365), so swapping out of one to buy the other is likely to do little other than pay your broker commissions.

    Speedy: Certainly the last year out of Ocampo has been looking better. Still not convinced that the declining grades we saw from 2007-10 won't return, but we can give management benefit of the doubt on that for now.

    I do think Aurico way overpaid for NXG -- the long-term outcome may still work out well (depends on metal prices, whether Kemess ever ends up being a significant asset, and how the Australian ops work out) -- but in the short-run, AUQ badly misplayed.

    NXG was trading ~$2.75 up until Primero deal was announced. That deal was AMAZINGLY good for NXG, they were just about stealing Primero. Paying virtually no premium. The Primero deal alone sent NXG up from $2.75 to $3.40. It is hard to accept paying a fat premium on top of that realizing that the new deal kills the excellent Primero deal and forces NXG to cough up a decent-sized breakup fee.

    Aurico should have A) tried to offer say $3.50/share for NXG back in June, B) waited for Primero deal to close and then try to merge with the finished company, or C) offered a low-ball price, say, ~$3.60 and seen if that would have been sufficient to scuttle the Primero deal. Without Primero, Northgate was not in a particularly strong position, given investors' general apathy toward the company following long delays at Y-D and the permit issue at KN.

    Just my opinion of course, and if Gold goes to $3,000/oz, none of this matters anyway.

  • Report this Comment On September 01, 2011, at 1:26 PM, XMFSinchiruna wrote:

    Readers ... beware the constant string of inaccuracies from the above commenter. There have been no delays at Young-Davidson. The project is on-time and on-budget.

  • Report this Comment On September 01, 2011, at 1:42 PM, goldminingXpert wrote:

    From the DJ Newswire:

    "The deal would combine two flagship mines - AuRico's Ocampo gold-silver mine in Mexico and Northgate's fledgling Young - Davidson project near the Timmins mining region in Ontario .

    AuRico said its gold-equivalent reserves would nearly double to 19 million ounces from 10.3 million ounces after acquiring Northgate. Its production this year would grow to 470,000 gold-equivalent ounces a year from 280,000 ounces, rising to 730,000 ounces by the time the Young - Davidson mine ramps up in 2013"

    The meat here:

    "Northgate's fledgling Young - Davidson project"

    "Young - Davidson mine ramps up in 2013"

    Back when I owned NXG (2007-08), Y-D was supposed to running at the beginning of 2012. http://www.northgateminerals.com/Theme/Northgate/files/Inter... The DJ newswire piece leads one to believe this timeline has been delayed. That is the basis of my statement.

  • Report this Comment On September 01, 2011, at 1:49 PM, BillyTG wrote:

    goldminingXpert, how do you make the leap from "fledgling" to "long delays"?

    You're a real winner, aren't you? What exactly is your agenda? To misinterpret things so badly on a public forum that you get attention?

    fledgling:

    1. A young bird that has recently acquired its flight feathers.

    2. A young or inexperienced person.

  • Report this Comment On September 01, 2011, at 1:57 PM, speedybure wrote:

    Goldminingexpert;

    I wouldn't forget to add what is more and more looking like its third flagship in Guadalupe Y Calvo. PEA to be released this month so we'll see.

  • Report this Comment On September 01, 2011, at 1:59 PM, goldminingXpert wrote:

    Billy: Some of us live outside the gold bug echo chamber. We haven't yet adjusted to the prospects of $10,000/oz gold and $500/oz silver. Give us time; we'll come around. ;)

  • Report this Comment On September 01, 2011, at 5:21 PM, hsolliday wrote:

    Chris:

    Thank you for our response on Primero's tax situation. I have been following your work for some time and I very much respect and appreciate your opinions.

    On Monday I sold some of my NXG position and initiated a new PPP positon - afterwards I started reading the details \ footnotes in the latest PPP financial report. I also found a recent BNN interview with Conway where he indicated that they are working on a three way agreement with the Canadian, Barbadian and Mexican tax authorities - but it would take some time - 12 -18 months to get some resolution. It seems to me it would be much easier to eliminate their Barbados trading subsidiary and deal directly with SLW.

    Anyway, I am concerned enouph about the significance of the issue and the apparent time delay to exit my PPP position.

    Also FYI the new contract with SLW has a August 6th anniversary date - so the 3.5mm commitment started again last month.

    Speedy:

    I have never published anything on SA.

    I am a new fool.

  • Report this Comment On September 01, 2011, at 5:59 PM, richthegeek wrote:

    Hey Sinch,

    Did you see this one?

    http://www.pcgold.ca/vm/newvisual/attachments/805/Media/PR22...

    You'd mentioned PC Gold a while back in a comment. Just wondering what you thought of it.

    All the best,

    Rich

  • Report this Comment On September 01, 2011, at 5:59 PM, XMFSinchiruna wrote:

    hsolliday,

    Thanks for responding. I understand your concern over the tax issue, and have wondered the same thing myself with respect to the option of altering the corporate structure. That certainly would seem like the simplest solution. Since I am not a tax expert, though, I will seek a more comprehensive understanding of the issue in my subsequent communications with the company.

    In any event, it is worth noting that Northgate Minerals certainly factored the issue into its due diligence process.

    Personally, at this valuation I am more than happy to strap into a position while the company works a solution. I believe another deal could be forthcoming sooner rather than later, and I look forward to discovering whom the lucky suitor will be. I have confidence in Mr. Conway, who did a fantastic job building IAMGOLD into a solid intermediate.

    I did see that speedybure appeared to swap usenames above. I believe he intended that question toward the other bogger that I have referred to above. :)

  • Report this Comment On September 01, 2011, at 6:23 PM, XMFSinchiruna wrote:

    Rich, let's just say I'm eager to see the PEA for Pickle Crow, which is due for imminent completion. I own some shares, but whether or not I increase my stake will depend upon the contents thereof.

  • Report this Comment On September 02, 2011, at 1:18 PM, speedybure wrote:

    hsholliday:

    My apologies, I got the user names mixed up. My bad

  • Report this Comment On September 02, 2011, at 7:09 PM, skypilot2005 wrote:

    "On September 01, 2011, at 12:24 PM, speedybure wrote:

    "I want Sandstorm Metals & Energy to be able to add to Caps portfolio, anyone know how I would go about this?"

    Speedy,

    Click on "contact us" and then "request a symbol".

    Sky Pilot

  • Report this Comment On September 02, 2011, at 7:13 PM, skypilot2005 wrote:

    Speedy,

    Here's the link:

    http://caps.fool.com/FeedBack.aspx?source=ifltnvsnv0000001

    I am going to request it, too.

    Sky Pilot

  • Report this Comment On September 03, 2011, at 10:32 AM, skypilot2005 wrote:

    Sinch,

    I just threw together some cursory D. D. on the up coming ECU – Golden Minerals “combination”. Fellow loyal readers of yours may find it helpful or at least, interesting.

    They are here:

    http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/golden-minerals-company/638050

    Not a recommendation but for informational purposes only.

    I do own a few shares of ECU.

    Fool On

    Sky Pilot

  • Report this Comment On September 03, 2011, at 6:05 PM, skypilot2005 wrote:

    http://goldinvestingnews.com/17358/gold-prices-fueling-inter...

    Gold Prices Fueling International Expansion

    Thu, Sep 1, 2011

    Via Sprott Asset Management’s web site:

    http://www.sprott.com/PreciousMetals.aspx?id=53

    Sky Pilot

  • Report this Comment On September 06, 2011, at 8:46 AM, Franky102 wrote:

    Gold is in what Soros calls "the ultimate bubble". Investing in gold now is risky business. Read this article from MSN and see if you can find any sense. It's just ridiculous:

    http://money.msn.com/exchange-traded-fund/popping-the-gold-b...

  • Report this Comment On September 06, 2011, at 8:50 AM, Franky102 wrote:

    Google the phrase, "gold is an ironic bubble" and read the article you see there. It is a good argument on why gold has much more downside than upside.

  • Report this Comment On September 06, 2011, at 10:52 AM, richthegeek wrote:

    Franky: Your article states "The banking crisis is going to get solved somehow. The debt will be handled somehow."

    That's why gold has more downside? Really? I'm not sure I see that as a good argument. Dig through the comments of those that blog and post here and you'll see many more well formed argements than "somehow".

    Rich

  • Report this Comment On September 08, 2011, at 4:15 PM, mihrtrn wrote:

    Chris,

    Obviously, not great news today with the grades but the production should come back and PPP is more silver. Conway is still there and I'm sure prospective buyers are, too. Any thoughts ? I bought more. Thanks.

  • Report this Comment On September 08, 2011, at 4:29 PM, mihrtrn wrote:

    Forget to mention probably some over-reaction by weak hand sellers and shorting today, too.

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