September 12, 2011
Although we don't believe in timing the market or panicking over market movements, we do like to keep an eye on big changes -- just in case they're material to our investing thesis.
What: Shares of Russian TV station operator CTC Media (Nasdaq: CTCM ) fell more than 13% in early trading after lowering full-year revenue guidance.
So what: The company behind the CTC and DTV networks now expects revenue to grow 15% in ruble terms, down from an earlier estimate of 20%. The gain would exclude the impact of commissions paid to Video International for sales of ad inventory in Russia last year, the company said in an SEC filing.
Now what: The good news? CTC says adjusted margins should still come in between 34% and 36%. Fair enough. Just don’t take that to mean that the profit forecast -- $1.16 a share, according to Yahoo! Finance -- is safe. A 5% revenue haircut could still have far-reaching consequences. Yet with the stock priced at less than one-fifth the long-term profit growth rate analysts expect, the downside of buying here appears to be minimal. Do you agree? Disagree? Please weigh in using the comments box below.
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