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Has Kraft Foods Become the Perfect Stock?

Every investor would love to stumble upon the perfect stock. But will you ever really find a stock that provides everything you could possibly want?

One thing's for sure: You'll never discover truly great investments unless you actively look for them. Let's discuss the ideal qualities of a perfect stock, then decide if Kraft Foods (NYSE: KFT  ) fits the bill.

The quest for perfection
Stocks that look great based on one factor may prove horrible elsewhere, making due diligence a crucial part of your investing research. The best stocks excel in many different areas, including these important factors:

  • Growth. Expanding businesses show healthy revenue growth. While past growth is no guarantee that revenue will keep rising, it's certainly a better sign than a stagnant top line.
  • Margins. Higher sales mean nothing if a company can't produce profits from them. Strong margins ensure that company can turn revenue into profit.
  • Balance sheet. At debt-laden companies, banks and bondholders compete with shareholders for management's attention. Companies with strong balance sheets don't have to worry about the distraction of debt.
  • Money-making opportunities. Return on equity helps measure how well a company is finding opportunities to turn its resources into profitable business endeavors.
  • Valuation. You can't afford to pay too much for even the best companies. By using normalized figures, you can see how a stock's simple earnings multiple fits into a longer-term context.
  • Dividends. For tangible proof of profits, a check to shareholders every three months can't be beat. Companies with solid dividends and strong commitments to increasing payouts treat shareholders well.

With those factors in mind, let's take a closer look at Kraft Foods.

Factor

What We Want to See

Actual

Pass or Fail?

Growth

5-Year Annual Revenue Growth > 15%

8.6%

Fail

 

1-Year Revenue Growth > 12%

19.6%

Pass

Margins

Gross Margin > 35%

35.8%

Pass

 

Net Margin > 15%

5.9%

Fail

Balance Sheet

Debt to Equity < 50%

75.8%

Fail

 

Current Ratio > 1.3

0.86

Fail

Opportunities

Return on Equity > 15%

8.5%

Fail

Valuation

Normalized P/E < 20

18.96

Pass

Dividends

Current Yield > 2%

3.3%

Pass

 

5-Year Dividend Growth > 10%

4.7%

Fail

       
 

Total Score

 

4 out of 10

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Total score = number of passes.

When we looked at Kraft Foods last year, it weighed in with the exact same score. The food giant has seen some improvement in revenue growth and on its balance sheet, although margins and return on equity both took hits.

Kraft is a household name in the U.S. and has increasingly broadened its recognition in a global marketplace. The company's much-ballyhooed acquisition of Cadbury last year hasn't gone perfectly, but it has led to a substantial boost in revenue as it leaves the company better able to tap into international markets.

But just a couple of months ago, Kraft finally gave in to activist investors calling for a breakup of the company. Kraft now plans to split off its North American grocery business, which includes its iconic mac-and-cheese brand and makes up about a third of Kraft's overall revenue, as a separate company. The surviving business will focus on its lines of snacks and candy and have more international exposure. The move follows similar announcements from Sara Lee (NYSE: SLE  ) and Ralcorp (NYSE: RAH  ) .

It's clear that Kraft faces huge competition. Earlier this year, Kraft lost its exclusive right to distribute Starbucks (Nasdaq: SBUX  ) coffee in stores, freeing the coffeehouse giant to make a deal with Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (Nasdaq: GMCR  ) . With food inflation pressures hitting both Kraft and its competitors, players throughout the industry are doing everything they can to keep margins up and costs down.

In order for Kraft to get closer to perfection, it really needs to stop making major strategic changes and instead focus on what it does best: leveraging a world-renowned brand into tasty and highly appealing food products. If it can survive its coming split-off without much trouble, then maybe that's the direction Kraft will move next.

Keep searching
No stock is a sure thing, but some stocks are a lot closer to perfect than others. By looking for the perfect stock, you'll go a long way toward improving your investing prowess and learning how to separate the best investments from the rest.

Click here to add Kraft Foods to My Watchlist, which can find all of our Foolish analysis on it and all your other stocks.

Finding the perfect stock is only one piece of a successful investment strategy. Get the big picture by taking a look at our "13 Steps to Investing Foolishly."

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Fool contributor Dan Caplinger doesn't own shares of the companies mentioned. The Motley Fool owns shares of Starbucks. Motley Fool newsletter services have recommended buying shares of Starbucks and Green Mountain Coffee Roasters, as well as creating a lurking gator position in Green Mountain Coffee Roasters. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Fool has a disclosure policy.


Comments from our Foolish Readers

Help us keep this a respectfully Foolish area! This is a place for our readers to discuss, debate, and learn more about the Foolish investing topic you read about above. Help us keep it clean and safe. If you believe a comment is abusive or otherwise violates our Fool's Rules, please report it via the Report this Comment Report this Comment icon found on every comment.

  • Report this Comment On October 27, 2011, at 1:58 AM, mm5525 wrote:

    Yesterday on Bloomberg's Taking Stock, top-ranked food analyst Alexia Howard over at Sanford Bernstein was essentially bullish on KFT and essentially praised the acquisition of CBY just by being able to use CBY's distribution systems in EM's such as Africa and India for mainstream KFT products like Oreos. She stated sales of Oreos are up 40% in India alone as people in these old Cadbury markets are really accessing mainstream KFT products really for the first time.

    Velveeta and Oreos for all! Could be some good growth for KFT to come... I generally respect her views and thought it was a good clip yesterday.

    She also discusses other food stocks:

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-10-25/howard-says-her-tar...

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DocumentId: 1575198, ~/Articles/ArticleHandler.aspx, 5/26/2012 9:54:39 PM

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5/25/2012 4:00 PM
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