Although we don't believe in timing the market or panicking over market movements, we do like to keep an eye on big changes -- just in case they're material to our investing thesis.
What: Shares of solar manufacturer Suntech Power
So what: The big news today was word that Suntech and JA Solar
Now what: I've been wondering for some time how exactly the industry was going to handle oversupply, considering the incredible leverage Chinese manufacturers have built into their businesses. They're currently selling modules at cost, or close to cost, indicating that supply needs to come down somehow. That means either a number of bankruptcies or everyone cuts back on manufacturing.
My bet is that Chinese manufacturers as a whole won't have the guts to cut down on supply and this will only push Suntech toward the brink faster. This is one stock I think is in real trouble, and I wouldn't be buying the pop today.
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